5/29/05 FCST: Central/Southern Plains

Dan Robinson

Just some quick comments to start a forecast thread for Sunday. Looks like our Saturday storms have made a complex situation even more so by introducing more boundaries into an already chaotic setup. Surface obs are showing a sharp east-west boundary through Kansas into SE CO, with SE-SSE winds to the south. SPC's Day 1 mentions supercells and even the t-word for this region.

Saturday, it looked like south/central Texas would be the hotspot for Sunday, but it looks like this southern setup has lost some of its promise. Positioning/travel distances should also play a big role in today's target decision, as most chasers are starting in either in northern Oklahoma after Wakita, or in Kansas, if they chose to go after Saturday's target. This makes staying in our current latitudes more appealing, where chase terrain and road networks are better anyway.

The central/south Texas setup is too far away to make in time unless one is willing to make a very early departure and an 8 to 10 hour drive. Furthermore, Monday's action looks to be in NE NM and SE CO, so the panhandles region on Sunday would be a good compromise for the sake of consecutive chase day positioning.
For those looking at the northern stream: nice shear tomorrow along the boundary showing up anywhere from Topeka to Salina to Dodge City, with best backing showing up in southeastern Colorado. Since the outlook also mentions this area of increased convergence and upslope flow, it may be the best bet (SERN CO to the Panhandle). In addition, ongoing convection in this region tonight will likely lay down outflow boundaries to possibly spice things up a bit. Initiation likely during mid-afternoon, so be ready early. By 0z the hodographs in Kansas are showing effects from the cold front and the atm. stabilizes from Topeka to Salina. Probably MCS over a lot of Kansas tomorrow. Post-frontal convection, so wherever the boundary ultimately winds up during the afternoon will be important, of course.
Data check this morning shows the surface boundary in southern Kansas. RUC showing a CAPE bullsye of 2000-2500 j/kg on the KS-CO border by 21Z, backed surface winds in the panhandles, and precip breaking out on the CO/KS/OK tri-state.

I think we'll head generally southwest toward DDC and check data again there before deciding to either continue due west, southwest or stay put. Tentative target as of this morning is at or north of Elkhart, KS.
Tornado warnings out for southern Texas - looks like the cell in Colorado county has the most potential...
dont know if there are any chasers this far south but it looks like its covering a very large area of southern TX
I was preparing to go when my hubby's buddy and girlfriend showed up out of the blue...so I was stuck home (being a bummed hostess with the mostest). I really saw some potential on the storm in Wharton Co earlier but it fizzled. Most of this is a lighted rain event and I must say, the lightning has been spectacular! I can't catch it with my digital cam, but I feasted on some magnificent wattage for over 2 hours, right at dark. Incredible pink and purple jagged forks that spiderwebbed the entire sky several times. Actually, it is still going on right now, but not as intense.

I hear of flooding up by IAH but only .42 out here in Katy (N of I-10). I know there is a chaser on here that lives on Fry Rd (Katy, S of I-10)...did you go out and chase? (Can't remember your name).

Sorry mods if this is in 'forecast', I saw no 'report' and didn't think this needed to be its own thread.
On was on the northern Jackson county supercell. It initially had good structure, but NO low level rotation. All I saw was a brief lowering, and that was it. Some small hail, mostly very heavy rainfall. Can't complain too much, saw a supercell and only had to drive a few hours from home...was back by 9pm.