5/29/04: NOW: N Kansas and Nebraska (north targets)

We are headed back to Michigan, but planned to spend the night camping north of Davenport, IA with friends. So we'll be between DesMoines and Davenport, which may turn into a hot spot from the sounds of things.

I think if the warm front gets to the north of us, or the triple point drifts east, we could definitely see some action along the warm front. I'm not sure we are prepared for that, but we can be in short time. Looks as though they are discussing a possible watch box in this neck of the woods.

Tim
 
NWS MSD for KS and NE

NWS has posted another MSD for KS and NE this afternoon. Excepts from that discussion statement:

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N CNTRL/CNTRL KS...S CNTRL/SE NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

INITIATION OF INTENSE CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH TRANSITION TO LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES THEREAFTER.
Here's a link to that MSD:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0972.html
 
TORN Watch Posted

NWS has posted a TORN Watch area for the Northern Plains area. Excerpts from that watch statement:

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.
Here's a link to the text for that watch:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0321.html

8) LJK.
 
Two Tornado Watches up for Kansas, one a "regular" watch from the Nebraska border to about halfway "down" the state, and another a PDS watch for the southern half including Wichita.
 
TORN Watch Posted for Central Plains

A TORN Watch has been posted for the Central Plains. Here's the text excerpts:

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Iowa North central and northeast Kansas far northwest Missouri east and central Nebraska

Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1000 PM CDT.

... This is a particularly dangerous situation...

I can see on the GOES-12 Satellite view that initiation has started in the triangle area bounded by Concordia, Salina and Hays, KS. This intial cluster is moving NE at this time. No storm warnings yet.

I am doing NOW casting for a couple of storm chasers out of Lincoln NE. They are enroute west to York and down to Hebron at this hour.

Happy Chasing!! 8) LJK.
 
Cell 14 miles southwest of Beloit just now starting to "appear" tornadic on radar, and the storm as a whole is starting to look more consistent from scan to scan. Looks like the town of Beloit might be under the gun.

Tim
 
Just heard from a chaser south of Beloit -- he reports the storm has a good updraft but looks distinctly high-based. He wa a bit surprised that it showed evidence of a hook. He is hoping the storm can draw some better moisture later on.

Tim
 
I kept a log of tornadoes during this outbreak, I have taken it
down and you should refer to the SPC Storm Reports and the
local NWS offices local storm reports for the latest reports.

Mike
 
The Beloit storm, as it gets its act together, will cross into better conditions. Looks like juicier stuff to the east of the US 81 corridor. Once this line gets there......look out.

Chasers Mike Hollingshead and Randy Chamberlain are trying to find position on the KS/NE border now.

Surprised to hear about those reported tornadoes in NE...already?? In those juvenile storms?? Man! Spinning like tops instantly, apparently.
 
Chaser Bill Hark confirms a needle-like funnel west of Beloit (2143Z) -- NWS already has the report on it. << Actually got a second confirmation on this a few minutes later from another chaser >>

Tim
 
Very intense Sup southwest of St Joe, MO. Kidney beaning like mad already.....most intense convection we've seen thus far. This line is riding just in front of a pool of 4000+ CAPE, LI's at 11, and the highest Sig Svr and Sup Composite parameters. I suppose it's a bit surprising it fired like it did, but given the conditions right there, it looks like this line means business.

Look out, St. Joseph!!
 
It looks like the cells on the NE/KS border are officially going nuts. Tornado Warning for Thayer & Fillmore Co, NE, with an intense wall cloud north of Deshler. Looking at the Hastings NEXRAD, it's very tough to distinguish things. The Cell NW of Concordia is still the most organized looking cell from this vantage point.


We can officially proclaim Thayer Co., as the "Throckmorton Co. of Nebraska"
 
SPC seems to be a little slow on the switch. The inflow tail of the Beloit storm is bearing down on Concordia, seems to be developing a core, and is a lot closer than 20 miles west of Concordia at 5:20 IMHO.
 
The cell South of St. Joe now has enhanced rotation.
It's closing in on I-29.

Oh, I hope my boyfriend is ok. HE's on I-29, and will be either near St. Joe or KC depending on how many times he's stopped.
 
Bill Hark and Jason Persoff confirm that a wedge tornado occurred earlier northwest/north of Jamestown (certainly suggested by that dramatic hook, then eyewall, then occlusion on the reflectivity loops) at roughly 2250-2300Z. Jim Leonard was on it, and said there was a mile-wide damage path. He broke off the chase to help a family trapped in a collapsed house (they are fine now). Hwy 765 (?) is closed off and that forced many chasers to divert east to Concordia before pickin the storm back up north.

Another brief touchdown occurred north of Jamestown KS at around 2325Z but dissipated. The storm appears to be going through another dramatic cycle, this time more rainwrapped, but there are no chasers I know of who are in position at this time.

Tim
 
Kansas City TV stations reporting mile-wide tornado just NW of Cameron, Missouri, about to cross I-35, heading ENE.

Tornado Emergency declared for Cameron.
 
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