2014-06-03 FCST: NE/KS/CO/IA

[JeremyS]

mesoanalysis at 18Z shows a STP of 17, 0-6km shear of 80 kts, and eff SRH of 600 near the North Platte area! If something can pop soon in that environment.....

 

[Royce Sheibal]

Radar and Visible showing surface based initiation trying real hard along the WF in SE Nebraska from GRI to Falls City. One lone cell has been able to break the cap so far. Monster up NW of Norfolk reported 100mph winds, due to be in Omaha or just north around 5-6pm. Looks to be cycling right now. Would be interesting to see what happens if we get some cell mergers. Out west still dry as a bone. Sitting here in Omaha, my backyard weather station stays its 90 with a dewpoint of 73...Thats juicy. Edit: Storm IN NC NEB did produce a tor near Bassett. Good job spotters!

 

[Jeff Duda]

Looks like low-level winds aren't backed quite as badly as was being previously forecast by some models (48-96 hours out). 850 mb winds are pretty much due Sly and not forecast to back at all. Below that, there is a signficant easterly component to the winds, but they're not as strong as was previously forecast. This is turning the hodographs from semicircular to more quarter-circular. Still high shear, but it may temper the significant tornado threat a little bit.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Fist signs of new discrete initiation underway around North Platte and further west; small cumulus fields around North Platte and also northeast CO. If the HRRR verifies, the cumulus field around North Platte should grow into a discrete supercell into central NE in the extreme kinematic and thermodynamic environment. Sig Tor pegged at 11 through the afternoon into this evening.