5/25/06 FCST: OK / KS / MO

[Fritz Kruse]

Tremendous instability with around 70 dewpoints and increasing
mid level winds are forecast, especially for southern MO.

The cap is not too strong however so whatever goes up will probably
go severe and rotate, before going into a large linear glob MCS.

Could be a surprise tornado initially with so much explosive CAPE
to 4000-5000 J/Kg and and increasing mid level winds to around
40kts.

 

[nickgrillo]

LOL Yeah, I just took a look at some of the data for today... The RUC initiates precip by 18z across southcentral MO, with additional development all over southern MO by 21z. The 12z SGF ob sounding shows a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profile for sustained severe thunderstorms... ~2000j/kg of sbCAPE and ~130m2/s2 0-1km SRH, with strong 0-3km low-level CAPE also available. For that matter, the RUC has seemed to underestimate 0-6km deep-layer shear the past couple of days (for instance yesterday when RUC mesoanalysis was off in southern MO by ~5-10kts from the observed 18z SGF sounding). The 12z SGF sounding shows ~30kts deep-layer shear, which should further strengthen as mean flow increases through the afternoon... Both the NAM and RUC show 500mb flow increasing to 35-40kts across southern MO by the evening. The RUC also shows a very tight thermal/instability gradient across southern MO, with 4000-4500j/kg sbCAPE developing by 21z... Latest RUC mesoanalysis already shows widespread 3000-3500j/kg sbCAPE, with CINH further weakening and LFC heights lowering with continued diabatic surface heating. While the profile is mostly unidirectional, the modest low-level turning will yield enough SRH for a tornado threat with any supercell that could form (and remain at least semi-discrete) and become established off surface inflow.

If the RUC is correct, southern MO could explode by 1-2pm. I am still in Joplin, and was ready to head north to Kansas City, but am thinking of sticking around for the afternoon and see what happens. I'll probably head east out of Joplin on I-44 and get further eastward into MO (yikes)...