5/24/04 NOW: Nebraska, Kansas, and Mo Valley

Wow... this watch is in effect from 11:30am to 10:00pm... That's 10.5 hrs! Never seen a non-tropical-system-induced Tornado Watch for anything more than 6 or maybe 7 hours... The thing's about the size of Indiana too.. I'm a little concerned about the northwestward extent of that watch, however... My estimates place those locations outside any real instability... But alas, need to have a parallelogram I suppose...
 
If I didn't have a dentist appt. at 1:30 in Lincoln :evil: , I would be parked in Marysville, KS this afternoon, waiting for the dryline bulge. Sig. Tor parameter is sitting at 7 right along the NE/KS border, with clearing and a developing Cu field pooling right on top of it.

This is going to get very bad for another small town, I think.
 
I figured the SPC would come around and post this latest PDS watch. I have a feeling that there will be more activity than they are/were indicating farther south and west of where the SPC has the HIGH risk posted.
 
Nowcasting guidance

Hey all,
I know it's a little late to make this offer since most everyone chasing today is probably already out there, but since I can't make it to the high risk area this afernoon I thought I'd offer to nowcast for anyone already in the field. I have much experience with radar & satellite analysis (attended Tim V.'s Chaser Training Classes @ the National StormChaser Convention in Denver), have been chasing across the Plains with different teams for about seven years now, and am very familiar with the recognition of low-level boundary primers that enhance tornado potential, as well as of course overall stability (or instability :wink: ) parameter analysis. I also have an account with weatherTap I use all the time, so I use the most current NEXRAD & sat imagery.
On a big day like this, I would hate for any chasers to get stuck in a compromising situation due to a lack of data or info at any moment, so I should be available most afternoon. Feel free to call my cell if you need nowcasting help & are short of options for data sources: 765-532-0505.
Good LUCK to everyone chasing today (ESPECIALLY in NE KS!)
Jon
 
First tornado warnings now posted for south-east Nebraska....

"AT 228 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE STORM WITH A POSSIBLE
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
WEST OF STELLA...OR ABOUT 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF FALLS CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH."

.....here we go
 
Another tornado warning has been posted for a storm along the KS/NE border in south-central NE.

"AT 301 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL NUCKOLLS COUNTY...OR ABOUT 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HASTINGS. THIS TORNADO WAS NEARLY STATIONARY."
 
Two TORN Warnings!!

Chasers are in quite a quandary here. There's a TORN warning southeast of Hastings, NE and another TORN warning moving NE of Falls City, NE. Which one do you pick or chase?? It depends on your situation and how the supercells are faring.

Right now, the TORN cell near Hastings looks a little disorganized. It's not quite circular, more like football-shaped. The one by Falls City is bigger in size and better organized. The latter cell also has crossed the Missouri River so chasing it down from KS or NE would be futile. The one by Hastings in my last radar update looks like it is losing intensity. There are more cells developing to the north and south of the Hastings cell so a line could develop here. It could hook up with the storm line already moving E-NE of York. If the two groups hook up we could have a squall line developing in SE portion of NE.

Update: The cell south of the Hastings storm has been TORN-warned.

Good luck to the chasers out there today!! 8) LJK.
 
I just checked SPC Mesoanalysis, and WOW! These indicies are the highest I have EVER seen...Supercell index above 30, EHI around 13, and Craven Significant Severe of over 120!!! That is truly amazing...SPC also has some of the strongest wording in their SWODY1 that I have seen in quite a while...

Robert
 
the cell just NE of Superior, NE is getting very strong, now has a well defined hook and appears to be rooted on the boundary, this could be a big one!!

Edit: it is moving to the ESE, slowly
 
Frame from UEX at 2035Z (3:35 pm) is the first one that looks tornadic. Cell 16 WNW of Hebron. Velocities showed good cyclonic convergence earlier but some of the later frames don't look right.. I think range folding from the Missouri storm may be a problem. Several chasers are almost in position.

Tim
 
I kept a log of tornadoes during this outbreak, I have taken it
down and you should refer to the SPC Storm Reports and the
local NWS offices local storm reports for the latest reports.

Mike
 
GOOD GRIEF!!

That cell in Southern Nebraska has GOT to be producing a large tornado. The radar signature is unbelieveable AND the radial velocity is incredible! Nice couplet!! AND those areas were just ravaged two days ago. Very sad day today :(
 
That Thayer County storm is a real beauty. I guess that's Nebraska's Throckmorton County now.

Storm just went up near Childress, TX. If the dryline was a little farther east, I'd be racing out the door. As is, I'm still 3-4 hours away.

Oh well...there's always tomorrow.
 
Wow, 3 tornadoes on the ground in Thayer County NE

0416 PM TORNADO 5 W HEBRON 40.17N 97.68W
05/24/2004 THAYER NE STORM CHASER

3 TORNADOES ON GROUND...MOVING SE.

Mike
 
The eagle is now flying on that cell in Thayer County. Looks to be some building along its southern flanking line that is going to get engulfed by the inflow of that monster.
 
Looking at the radar loop it seems that this cell has pulled the boundary right into it. I have no doughts that this is a very powerfull supercell right now. Shame, I am stuck at Dallas airport waiting to catch my flight home to England.
 
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