5/24/04 FCST: Nebraska and MO Valley

[Austin Ivey]

A possible suggestion for chasing today's outbreak:

Since this is somewhat/very similar to the Saturday event; I thought I would discuss the strategy Matt Biddle/Mark Svendold and one of the radar trucks used on Saturday. Since storms were firing everywhere and nearly every storm looked decent (could very well happen again today) they decided to play the "tail-end charlie" and got lucky.

Earlier in the day they saw mesos left and right but mostly just HP bombs with possible tornadoes shrouded in rain/dust. After much frustration they headed south to Republic county Kansas (THE tail-end charlie for Saturday) and witnessed at least 4 clearly visible tornadoes WITHOUT having to worry about another southern storm sneaking up on them or getting pounded by gigantic hail from a left split or something. Granted this storm didn't pop until around 730pm, but they still bagged some awesome TORs. After a phone conversation with them this morning, I'm pretty sure this will be todays strategy as well. This might be especially useful judging from the RUC's precipitation structure around 18z.

 

[J.B. Dixon]

have I mentioned how much I hate the possiblity of chasing NE KS/ NW MO?? If it's an outbreak like Saturday, this is dangerous business. Much like in Texas Hold Em Poker, don't forget the Cardinal Rule today: Always leave yourself some outs.

Mike P.--Is that the TOP or OAX Skew-T??? Can you say "Loaded Gun"?? :shock:

 

[Mike Peregrine]

That was the St. Joseph hodo, J.B. -

Austin has some good points - with this much instability and moisture everywhere today, I won't be surprised if we end up with HPs everywhere, no matter where you are ... best visibility will be as storms initiate and the bases first become visible. One important lesson from Saturday is that the storms became very tornadic almost instantaneously - - - it didn't take any time at all for them to go up and start spinning ... so hone your target today and get on them early, and then stay with them -

Also - I agree that we will probably end up with mesos all around us, so while you are chasing Storm A, lookout for Storm B coming up from behind ... and then C ... and D.

good luck everyone, and have fun -

 

[Todd Sprinkmann]

I want to agree with what Austin posted about the southern storm that went up near Republic toward 8pm 2 days ago.

After having the wits scared out of us near Glenville NE just after 7pm (just could not get around the east end of this storm, heading south out of Hastings) my partner and I were more than ready to find a storm that had better visibility. The Republic storm was just the thing we wanted to see.

We felt even better when a Dow truck turned on to Hwy 81 as we headed south toward Hebron, NE about 8-8:15pm. Always nice to have DOW in your rearview mirror, LOL.

Heading out of my room in Council Bluffs in about a half hour for the Lincon/Beatrice corridor. Will be monitoring the usual chaser channels on ham radio. I am KC9BQA.

Todd

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Every time I look at satellite it seems like there's more debris - wondering what this early junk is going to do - - - target continues shifting - - -

 

[J.B. Dixon]

It's worth a look at the Sig. Tor parameter on the SPC Meso analysis page. Already up to a value of 6 in N. Cent KS............and it's 10:45 CST.

Am I blowing this out of proportion when I say I'm a bit alarmed/stunned by that?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis.../s1/index2.html

 

[Joel Wright]

This all looks very impressive right now on "paper." We'll see if it turns out to be as impressive as it looks. I'd favor the high CAPE area in northeast KS. Probably right between Concordia and Manhattan somewhere. As someone mentioned earlier these will be a little more discrete and less HP in nature.

I'm sitting here laughing at the high risk for east-central IA into northwest IL. 58/45 conditions here right now with no signs of movement yet with the warm front. We'll be lucky to hear a clap of thunder in this area lol.

Good luck and be safe to all who go out today! 8)

 

[Jeff Snyder]

If I wanted to do a long chase right now, I'd head up to ne KS. However, the latest model guidance suggests that the focus for the most violent storms may be a little farther south, into eastcentral and southeast KS. Additionally, both the ETA and the RUC suggest potential for strong tornadoes (check out http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA_SVR_C...HSWEAT_12HR.gif ... enough said) for locations east of a OKC-ICT line... IF THE CAP CAN BREAK ... 4000-5000 CAPE, 50-55kts 0-6km deep layer shear, and 250-350 helicity east of I35, north of I40 leaves the ne part of OK and eastern KS in the zone for strong tornadoes. Now, as Kevin mentioned, the ETA does initiate convection in sw OK and adjacent portions of northwest TX this afternoon, but veered winds will leave that area with poor low-level shear. Both the RUC and ETA suggest the cap over the areas east of OKC/ICT will be rather strong, so this may be a bust. Whatever the case, I"m probably going to wait around OUN until mid-afternoon and see what evolves. I'm currently thinking about meandering north and east of here in the hopes that something can pop...

 

[Brandon Redmond]

It looks like Western Illinois may not be a bad spot to be in either. Tornadoes a possibility, but a derecho will become a increasingly element of severe weather overnight as it moves across Illinois and Indiana.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

OK, so SPC has now seen what I have been watching throughout the morning -- the distinct possibility, IF storms can form, for isolated tornadoes from I35 westward in Oklahoma. After just checking CAPS southern plains domain, CAPE values are already 5800 here in Norman!!

If the warm 700-850 inversion can be overcome, we could definitely see some interesting storms here in the Central Oklahoma vicinity -- a very nice sound!!

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Since I'm cheap, I won't leave Oklahoma today. So with that said:

Well I was debating today for Western Oklahoma because of the Cap, but now I think I'm sold. It looks like we will only have 2-3 storms at the most in a strongly unstable airmass with good shear. If you ask me, that's the recipe for success. I am initially targeting Hobart and moving from there. Wow, this is sounding like March 27th a lot isn't it? SPC jumped tornado potential to 5% in their 1630, so I'm liking Western Oklahoma more and more. If we can get an area of backed winds and added convergence, a storm could go bonkers out there today. Good luck to everyone up north! Safe and happy hunting everyone!

 

[Jeff Lawson]

I really don't understand why the ETA is breaking out precip across W TX and W OK. I'm wondering if moisture from what's left of Agatha has something to do with it. A disturbance shows up on WV in N Mexico, but it doesn't seem like it would be enough to break the cap in W TX by very early afternoon as the ETA indicates.

The RUC doesn't seem interested, though, and given how the ETA precip solution simply doesn't make much logical sense, I'm inclined to toss it out.

It's worth noting that the RUC shows a little piece of vorticity at 500mb approaching the dryline by late evening, so that might help something bust through the cap in W OK late should it verify. As the low works its way across KS, however, surface winds will probably veer ahead of the dryline in OK, so that may kill our surface convergence.

End result: there may be a storm or two along the dryline in W OK this evening, but the probability is too low for me to make the drive from DFW. If I lived in OKC, however, it'd be a different matter (although, if I lived in OKC, I'd probably be up in NE KS).

Just one more week until I have more freedom to roam (hopefully).

EDIT: Of course, just as I finish this, I see the increased focus on TX/OK in the 1630Z Day 1.

 

[Jared Mysko]

Chris, you are a smart man. It may be a safer place to play in western Oklahoma but storms are now firing in the NE/SD and it looks like it will quickly spread straight south for who knows how far? Tornado Watch box for high risk area...

NOW THREAD PLEASE...

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Jared.. .there is a now thread...

 

[Jared Mysko]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
Jared.. .there is a now thread...

Found it!

This isn't to say we must stop forecasting this thing since it is going to be an all day/night event. This thread could actually be an important record for a historic day. Let's keep the discussion going.