5/24/04 FCST: Nebraska and MO Valley

[Tony Laubach]

Opening a thread for Monday's potential activity in the Missouri Valley...

Was taking a glance at the models going into tomorrow and am very optomistic about the potential for a big day. SPC has a MOD RISK out basically blanketing the entire state of Iowa; touching down into Northern Missouri. Hopefully, unlike last Wednesday, something will push through to break the cap and get those storms firing. As most of us remember (and maybe this is Blake Iowa curse), nothing in Iowa Wednesday helped to get storms going. Tomorrow, a strong shortwave kicks through and will hopefully lead to explosive development. CAPE values are forecasted to be above 3000 and moisture looks to be very good with values in the 60s.

My initial target may actually be a repeat of last Wednesday, thinking of starting south someplace along the Missouri River. Last week, we grouped in Nebraska City, am thinking there as a starting point, maybe a bit east of that. I'll leave Denver this evening and drive about halfway tonight, then get up early to make my target destination.

My third and final week of my chase-free-for-all, so hoping to get it off to a good start! See everyone out there!

 

[Amos Magliocco]

I looked at last night's ETA, have not seen it today. As of the 0Z run, tomorrow's setup reminded me very much of yesterday's, with a somewhat weaker surface low forecast to form a little more north and east of yesterday's. Seems as if these Day 2 setups which are dependent upon smaller shortwaves get pushed back west as the models tend to rush the disturbance, so wouldn't surprise me to see many of the same areas in eastern Nebraska under the gun on Monday.

We're in Beatrice, where the ATT tower suffered damage and my cell phone doesn't work. This is a blessing, really, since I've managed an oil change, shave, car wash, laundry all after having slept in until 11:00 AM. Now I'm going to re-organize and try to post some video captures from tornadoes in Colorado and Nebraska from the last three days.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

With all of the activity again today further east, haven't seen much chatter about tomorrow yet ... hopefully we're not getting worn out by forecasting already! ...

I wonder if Amos' suspicions may be correct. If so, then great care will need to be exercised tomorrow, because we will definitely be playing with a Missouri River crossing this time - -

I haven't really taken a look at the Day Two other than to see the outlines, and will base this primarily off of ETA guidance.

First of all, something I definitely agree with Amos about is the similarity between this system and last. We are again working with a great deal of moisture ... gobs of juice. By 18z, ETA breaks out precip both in Northern Nebraska and along the Missouri/Kansas line ... with dewpoints of 70 in NE Kansas and mucho Theta-E advection showing up in NE Kansas, where CAPE also increases dramatically along the dryline. By 0z the map explodes across eastern Nebraska and Iowa and forty kts. showing up on the llvl southerlies where the four states meet. Watch out for tomorrow, the shear is again very good ... the moisture is very good ... this has the potential to get big.

My thinking - right now it looks like the show may start early and further west - and possibly further south than we see the current mod risk ... this time of year we don't want to see any warmer than 12c for cap strength - tomorrow is currently looking like it will be around 5c in northeast Kansas. Though I never go by ETA for precip, the fact that it breaks it out early further south tells us that the cap will be on the weak side.

So my target as of now: extreme northeast Kansas - possibly as far west as Marysville - and possibly further east on highway 36. Amos - enjoy your rest in Beatrice - because tomorrow looks like another big day.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Surprised I haven't seen much discussion yet ... New Day1 has High Risk along IA/MO border... I'd prob chase it but it's about 100 miles out of my typical domain..

Looking at 0z ETA, looks like the 5000+ CAPE and 300-450 helicity setup has the potential to break the no-F5 streak that we'be been on since 5/3/99... Looks like points east of a line from DSM to MCI are at the greatest risk of violent tornadoes. ETA-forecast hodographs even indicate the semi-classic "kink" in the hodograph near 4km that are seen with violent tornadoes (from 21z MCI hodograph)... Interesting...

 

[Jeff Lawson]

45% for the damaging wind probability? I believe that's the first time I've seen 45% for anything.

 

[Todd Sprinkmann]

I'm in Council Bluffs and ready to roll tomorrow. Funny feeling inside of me after Nebraska yesterday, but I'm sure once storms start up, there won't be much time for feelings.

Nice call Tony on starting this thread. Who'd have thought at midday yesterday that we'd be staring at another day with such potential?

Lots of people have helped while I've been out most of the past two weeks and I want to thank them before things get hectic again. Anybody who has my number and wants to help tomorrow is welcome to call. Imagine most of you will be out and good luck to all.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Its deffinately looking to be a big day across NE/IA/KS/and MO-I try to stay far away from there. I'm kind of glad I wasnt chasing in May this year, because we'd be in Oklahoma. Nothing is going on down there this year. I'm hoping June is this active across NE/IA/KS. I'll be leaving June 4. If I were chasing today I would target SE Nebraska or northwest Kansas. Best influx of moisture and instability appears to be there. I'm concerned about the relatively low cape across southern IA coupled with the enormous helicities. I'm new at forecasting, so if you want to critique me, be my guest
Good luck on this dangerous looking day. May someone get a big F5 wedge.

 

[Dan Cook]

Once again, WIU's in the High zone. :roll:

 

[Michael Maxwell]

Public severe weather outlook is posted now on the SPC website. It's going to be a day from hell.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Well, this is setting up over the top of my home and the little towns where I was born and raised ... after seeing what happened Saturday, I just can't find it in my heart to be happy about this setup one bit ... have way too many friends and family in the high risk zone to feel excited right now. Rock Port, Tarkio, Mound City, Falls City, Auburn, Maryville, Shenandoah - all of these places may not mean a lot to most, but they are really important to me.

While I will most certainly be chasing today and will be concerned with the video and photos - going to concentrate every second into reporting this time. Please help us out today -

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Good lord - check out this ETA hodo -

http://www.wxcaster.com/modelskewt.php3?mo...STATIONID=72449

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

Little time, as need to head out the door, but two things caught my eye:

First: The 12Z eta and RUC both break out convection by 18Z over the KS/MO border region south of Kansas City. This does not appear to be the main play (in the model world), but worth keeping an eye on to make sure convective debris/outflow do not get sucked up into the target area. The dryline bulge upstream of incredible progged soundings are hard to pass up.

Second: The 12Z eta, RUC, and other models break out convection in southwest OK and western north Texas along the trailing dryline. The shear profiles and cloud bases are not progged to be as favorable, but still may be good enough for a tornado or two for any storms that manage to form. That may be a secondary target consideration for folks who can't make the high risk area.

Pattern recognition suggests the MCI/TOP/STJ area, so I'm out the door to head up the Kansas turnpike...again. Good luck and be safe!

 

[Tony Laubach]

Looks like this could be a very long day. Currently, I am in York, NE; planning on heading a bit east, then south. Nebraska City looks to be a good starting point, but wouldn't rule out heading south, maybe into far Northeast Kansas/Northwest Missouri.

As Mike said, lets be on the ball today guys.. I know the vids and photos will likely be once in a lifetime, but we've got to remember that we are out to warn the public of what's going on. It could be a helacious day, so lets be on our toes gang. Be safe and good luck out there!

 

[Mike Peregrine]

While I'll stay at home for data gathering today, the target looks like it might shift westward a bit on 36 for me - will have to really pay attention to find out where the big show ends up ... if it does initiate to the west, watch out for northeast Kansas - the road network just doesn't seem nearly as good as Nebraska, which has road options every mile - in Kansas and NW Missouri you'd better make sure your GPS is working -

Primary roads today are highway 36, I-29, highway 75, I-35 and I-70.

River crossings in Missouri: Rock Port, MO/Brownville, NE ... Rulo, NE, St. Joe, Atchison, Leavenworth, and Kansas City.

 

[Blake Naftel]

This is the first time posting/checking any email/logs, etc in 48 hours as I am w/o a laptop for my trip. Currently in Lincoln, NE on Brian Morganti's computer.

Breif:

Had an excellent day Saturday; May 22 - Bill, Brian, Keith, Kinney, the Tempest Guests and myself did a comprehensive damage survey yesterday (Sunday; May 23) across Theyer, Jefferson, and Saline CO. NE; where we observed a large tornado 3 miles S of DeWitt (Brian/Keith were on the full lifecycle).

What is the phone number to the NWSFO in OMA??? Is Dewitt, NE in OMA's CWA????? Email me offlist at [email protected].

TODAY:

I LOVE the Theta-E ridge pointing to Hiawatha, KS (S. of Falls City, NE). The Tempest gang and myself will be in target by 2pm CT; and I can nearly 90% guarantee there will be tornadic activity within 10-20 miles of this region.

This will be the last time I post; please do not call me today as I will be unable to take calls (being the driver; Bill wants me to focus on driving).

Good luck to all; stay safe... and please don't kill yourself attempting to drive into a tornado for jackassery merrit. (Sorry to sound pompus there).

..Blake..