5/23/05 TALK: HIGH PLAINS AND NE OK AND SW KS

[Chris Hayes]

I hope I made the topic correctly My first time. Severe storms and tornados appear possible in SE KS and NE Oklahoma as well as the high plains area today. Let's discuss where the best chase target would be.

 

[Philip Flory]

Im honestly surprised of the 5% in SE KS/NE OK. Think the cap is a major issue with daytime development again. Mid and upper level shear will be somewhat stronger today per 00z NAM... however have not had much time to look at other progs.

Not sure what I will do, GF has HS graduation this evening. If it looks like the cap is breakable, my showing up is optional (well.. not really.. but I could make it)

We'll see.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I'm not too surprised by 5% tor in eastern Oklahoma. Extreme instability should develop again later this afternoon with 3000-5000 CAPE progged, and southeasterly flow in eastern OK (east of an OFB perhaps) resulting in pretty good 0-3km SRH per 0z NAM. In addition, the NAM does deplete the cap and initiate precip during the afternoon and evening. Again, weak flow aloft will likely result in relatively short-lived storms, but the strong directional shear should still yield 35-45kt 0-6km deep-layer shear. I'm 0-2 for busts the past two days, so I think I'm going to have to feel very confident about initiation to go out today. Additionally, Tues and Weds look to have possibility for supercells in northern OK / southern KS (Tues) and northern TX (weds), but I'll leave that for their respective threads.

 

[tom hanlon]

Here in North Platte. I like that the SPC has moved things North overnight. Might have to drive less. Still like a target of Yuma CO. Once I head that direction I will have no data so I may wait here till things start happening.

The SPC was saying that Td of 50 would be satisfactory and Td of 55 would be good and today I am seeing forecast Td of over 60.

This upslope moisture return, trapped against the mountains surface regime is new to me. I like the terrain for chasing though.

North Platte is showing 86% Relative Humidity. I wonder if the station is in the river bed and fogged in because that is awful high. Nice if that is true however.

From the North Platte NE AFD.
"COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW BY 18Z...AND SLIDES TO THE SE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...NAM PICKING UP ON TSRA
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH INCREASING CAPE AND DRYLINE."

Good luck to the chasers today.

 

[Bill Hark]

I'm in Goodland, Kansas. See my post in the FCST thread. I am getting concerned about the cap looking at morning soundings.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_700.gif

Orographic lifting can help, but will it be enough.

One interesting observation: Visually in Goodland, I am seeing some mid to low level broken stratus streaming in from the SE. We're getting additional moisture coming in. Yeah!

Bill Hark

 

[tom hanlon]

Moisture seems to be pooling more In CO than in KS NE.

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
GREELEY ARPT FAIR 64 46 52 SW5 29.97S
AKRON SUNNY 67 57 70 W12 29.96R
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 65 53 65 S20 29.96R

KANSAS
NORTHWEST KANSAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
GOODLAND SUNNY 67 47 48 S17 29.95R
HAYS SUNNY 72 45 37 SE12 29.88R
HILL CITY MOSUNNY 67 49 52 CALM 29.92R
RUSSELL MOSUNNY 71 45 39 E14 29.86F
$$

Mcook NE Td=48
North Platte Td=48

The DOW team has not left yet. I hate to leave a good internet connection so will likely wait a bit.

 

[Fabian Guerra]

NE Colorado

We are currently at the Comfort Inn in Limon, CO and will soon head up to NE Colorado somewhere around the Akron area. We like the moisture pooling heading up that way and it seems like the winds will be better up there as well.

Fabian

 

[Verne Carlson]

0Z Ruc shows a convergence line across Sterling, CO - will be heading out meeting up with friends around 2ish. I like this setup because I don't have to drive very far at all!

 

[tom hanlon]

Heading out of North Platte NE for Julesburg CO for last data and then will likely head South on 385

Will check with the DOW team and see where they are heading.

See you all out there. Driving a gold mazda 626 with OH plates. Looks like Hail today

 

[Chris Hayes]

Got a bit of a late start today. Heading north on 35 and going to blast west on 70. Target is extreme NW KS. Hope I make it in time for the show. :?

 

[tom hanlon]

The higher dewpoint focus has shifted east. South is a little better also.

Goodland KS HWO targets North and West of a McCOOK NE to Cheyenne Wells CO line.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

Shows a nice Td map with the moisture focus.

We are in Julesburg will go without data and head South on 385.

Target Wray CO or tri-state area in general.

See you out there.

 

[Chris Hayes]

we're at a truckstop fueling up just east of Hays, KS. We'll be targeting the tri-state area also. Being without data will be a drag, but with clear skies we should see things start to go up. Is the visibility good in this general area? Is there a lot of haze?

 

[Chris Hayes]

Latest satelite image shows a narrow line of cumulus developing along the front. SPC also issued MCD discussing te possibility of a WW whithin an hour or so.

 

[Brad Emel]

Scott and I are in Stratton CO watching some towering CU go up. We're going to wait around for a while to see if anything can break through the cap.

Rapid CU development in front of us.... maybe something will fire soon...

 

[Cstok]

Sitting in Limon watching a nice cell go up just to the south. Moving SE. Looks like it has HP charateristics. I will follow this one SE as it is headed into an area with more moisture.