5/23/05 TALK: HIGH PLAINS AND NE OK AND SW KS

I hope I made the topic correctly :oops: My first time. Severe storms and tornados appear possible in SE KS and NE Oklahoma as well as the high plains area today. Let's discuss where the best chase target would be.
 
Im honestly surprised of the 5% in SE KS/NE OK. Think the cap is a major issue with daytime development again. Mid and upper level shear will be somewhat stronger today per 00z NAM... however have not had much time to look at other progs.

Not sure what I will do, GF has HS graduation this evening. If it looks like the cap is breakable, my showing up is optional (well.. not really.. but I could make it)

We'll see.
 
I'm not too surprised by 5% tor in eastern Oklahoma. Extreme instability should develop again later this afternoon with 3000-5000 CAPE progged, and southeasterly flow in eastern OK (east of an OFB perhaps) resulting in pretty good 0-3km SRH per 0z NAM. In addition, the NAM does deplete the cap and initiate precip during the afternoon and evening. Again, weak flow aloft will likely result in relatively short-lived storms, but the strong directional shear should still yield 35-45kt 0-6km deep-layer shear. I'm 0-2 for busts the past two days, so I think I'm going to have to feel very confident about initiation to go out today. Additionally, Tues and Weds look to have possibility for supercells in northern OK / southern KS (Tues) and northern TX (weds), but I'll leave that for their respective threads.
 
Here in North Platte. I like that the SPC has moved things North overnight. Might have to drive less. Still like a target of Yuma CO. Once I head that direction I will have no data so I may wait here till things start happening.

The SPC was saying that Td of 50 would be satisfactory and Td of 55 would be good and today I am seeing forecast Td of over 60.

This upslope moisture return, trapped against the mountains surface regime is new to me. I like the terrain for chasing though.

North Platte is showing 86% Relative Humidity. I wonder if the station is in the river bed and fogged in because that is awful high. Nice if that is true however.

From the North Platte NE AFD.
"COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW BY 18Z...AND SLIDES TO THE SE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...NAM PICKING UP ON TSRA
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH INCREASING CAPE AND DRYLINE."

Good luck to the chasers today.
 
I'm in Goodland, Kansas. See my post in the FCST thread. I am getting concerned about the cap looking at morning soundings.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_700.gif

Orographic lifting can help, but will it be enough.

One interesting observation: Visually in Goodland, I am seeing some mid to low level broken stratus streaming in from the SE. We're getting additional moisture coming in. Yeah!

Bill Hark
 
Moisture seems to be pooling more In CO than in KS NE.

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
GREELEY ARPT FAIR 64 46 52 SW5 29.97S
AKRON SUNNY 67 57 70 W12 29.96R
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 65 53 65 S20 29.96R

KANSAS
NORTHWEST KANSAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
GOODLAND SUNNY 67 47 48 S17 29.95R
HAYS SUNNY 72 45 37 SE12 29.88R
HILL CITY MOSUNNY 67 49 52 CALM 29.92R
RUSSELL MOSUNNY 71 45 39 E14 29.86F
$$

Mcook NE Td=48
North Platte Td=48

The DOW team has not left yet. I hate to leave a good internet connection so will likely wait a bit.
 
NE Colorado

We are currently at the Comfort Inn in Limon, CO and will soon head up to NE Colorado somewhere around the Akron area. We like the moisture pooling heading up that way and it seems like the winds will be better up there as well.

Fabian
 
0Z Ruc shows a convergence line across Sterling, CO - will be heading out meeting up with friends around 2ish. I like this setup because I don't have to drive very far at all! :D
 
Heading out of North Platte NE for Julesburg CO for last data and then will likely head South on 385

Will check with the DOW team and see where they are heading.

See you all out there. Driving a gold mazda 626 with OH plates. Looks like Hail today :eek:
 
Got a bit of a late start today. Heading north on 35 and going to blast west on 70. Target is extreme NW KS. Hope I make it in time for the show. :?
 
The higher dewpoint focus has shifted east. South is a little better also.

Goodland KS HWO targets North and West of a McCOOK NE to Cheyenne Wells CO line.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

Shows a nice Td map with the moisture focus.

We are in Julesburg will go without data and head South on 385.

Target Wray CO or tri-state area in general.

See you out there.
 
we're at a truckstop fueling up just east of Hays, KS. We'll be targeting the tri-state area also. Being without data will be a drag, but with clear skies we should see things start to go up. Is the visibility good in this general area? Is there a lot of haze?
 
Latest satelite image shows a narrow line of cumulus developing along the front. SPC also issued MCD discussing te possibility of a WW whithin an hour or so.
 
Scott and I are in Stratton CO watching some towering CU go up. We're going to wait around for a while to see if anything can break through the cap.

Rapid CU development in front of us.... maybe something will fire soon...
 
Sitting in Limon watching a nice cell go up just to the south. Moving SE. Looks like it has HP charateristics. I will follow this one SE as it is headed into an area with more moisture.
 
Tornado Watch issued at 1420 MDT for eastern CO, extreme NW KS and W NE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS INTO WRN NEB. STORMS WILL MOVE EWD TAPING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ERN CO. SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

That cell SW of Limon is looking pretty good on radar and has a large anvil visible on satellite. It is moving SE at 15kts.
 
The (south of) Limon cell is showing at 31,000 ft and looks to be a good play - its moving n/west - hail poss 30% up to 1"
good luck
 
Nearing the Colorado border. Have what appear to be 2 CBs developing. So far we're going for the cell that's developing right over I-70. It has an overshoot on it and anice anvil. The show is beginning. :D
 
the cell core is 30 miles south of Limon - and would appear to be moving east south east - lincoln county is under a severe watch
this could be the show that suprises everyone
 
ok SPC has red boxed the entire eastern CO state and into s/west NB with LARGE hail and 80mph wind gusts and dangerous lightening - BE CAREFUL this is gonna be one nasty show
 
storm

RFD showing up on BREF and 0.5 degree velocity. Tornado threat seems higher now and an upgrade to a tornado warning may be necessary soon. Storm continues to propagate into higher moisture/theta-e air which should increase growth, especially for a right turner in an environment with a clockwise curved hodograph. I wouldn't be surprised to see this turn HP rather fast. Looks like the only promising storm out there now.
 
Re: storm

Originally posted by Adam Atkins
RFD showing up on BREF and 0.5 degree velocity. Tornado threat seems higher now and an upgrade to a tornado warning may be necessary soon. Storm continues to propagate into higher moisture/theta-e air which should increase growth, especially for a right turner in an environment with a clockwise curved hodograph. I wouldn't be surprised to see this turn HP rather fast. Looks like the only promising storm out there now.

Seemed locked on a boundary that was reinforced by its outflow...given the latest radar, looks like the outflow helped surge the boundary farther south. Given the easterly flow, shouldn't be a big problem for this thing to keep going (had this been any other place than CO, the inflow would be cut off now)...it's gonna be an interesting storm to watch (though the last couple of scans don't look too encouraging).
 
development

A little off the current action topic...but it seems a nice boundary intersection exists over the same area as yesterday, before the cap killed any development near Enid. Vance radar shows a westward propagating outflow boundary and great convergence shows up on mesonet data. This could be an area of development especially if the secondary area of slightly faster winds can branch off of the main vort max over the Pac NW and slide through the ridge. Otherwise the show will be confined to the front range and the cap will destroy any other possibilities without strong synoptic forcing.
 
Ok, Yuma County has been tornado warned and tornado box in n/west NM - looks like stronger cells may spill into KS,NB,CO border areas
 
Quick look at radar loop-

Appears the 3 seperate supercells may be already trying to congeal into a complex west of Goodland, KS. The tornado warned storm is barely moving (E at about 5) ... not sure how all this is going to play out.

Update-- TOR warned storm just took a massive dbz hit on the latest scan too.
 
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