5/23/05 TALK: HIGH PLAINS AND NE OK AND SW KS

[Jason Montano]

Tornado Watch issued at 1420 MDT for eastern CO, extreme NW KS and W NE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS INTO WRN NEB. STORMS WILL MOVE EWD TAPING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ERN CO. SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

That cell SW of Limon is looking pretty good on radar and has a large anvil visible on satellite. It is moving SE at 15kts.

 

[bill mudd]

The (south of) Limon cell is showing at 31,000 ft and looks to be a good play - its moving n/west - hail poss 30% up to 1"
good luck

 

[Chris Hayes]

Nearing the Colorado border. Have what appear to be 2 CBs developing. So far we're going for the cell that's developing right over I-70. It has an overshoot on it and anice anvil. The show is beginning.

 

[bill mudd]

the cell core is 30 miles south of Limon - and would appear to be moving east south east - lincoln county is under a severe watch
this could be the show that suprises everyone

 

[bill mudd]

ok SPC has red boxed the entire eastern CO state and into s/west NB with LARGE hail and 80mph wind gusts and dangerous lightening - BE CAREFUL this is gonna be one nasty show

 

[Adam Atkins]

storm

RFD showing up on BREF and 0.5 degree velocity. Tornado threat seems higher now and an upgrade to a tornado warning may be necessary soon. Storm continues to propagate into higher moisture/theta-e air which should increase growth, especially for a right turner in an environment with a clockwise curved hodograph. I wouldn't be surprised to see this turn HP rather fast. Looks like the only promising storm out there now.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

Re: storm

Originally posted by Adam Atkins
RFD showing up on BREF and 0.5 degree velocity. Tornado threat seems higher now and an upgrade to a tornado warning may be necessary soon. Storm continues to propagate into higher moisture/theta-e air which should increase growth, especially for a right turner in an environment with a clockwise curved hodograph. I wouldn't be surprised to see this turn HP rather fast. Looks like the only promising storm out there now.

Seemed locked on a boundary that was reinforced by its outflow...given the latest radar, looks like the outflow helped surge the boundary farther south. Given the easterly flow, shouldn't be a big problem for this thing to keep going (had this been any other place than CO, the inflow would be cut off now)...it's gonna be an interesting storm to watch (though the last couple of scans don't look too encouraging).

 

[Adam Atkins]

development

A little off the current action topic...but it seems a nice boundary intersection exists over the same area as yesterday, before the cap killed any development near Enid. Vance radar shows a westward propagating outflow boundary and great convergence shows up on mesonet data. This could be an area of development especially if the secondary area of slightly faster winds can branch off of the main vort max over the Pac NW and slide through the ridge. Otherwise the show will be confined to the front range and the cap will destroy any other possibilities without strong synoptic forcing.

 

[bill mudd]

Ok, Yuma County has been tornado warned and tornado box in n/west NM - looks like stronger cells may spill into KS,NB,CO border areas

 

[Philip Flory]

Quick look at radar loop-

Appears the 3 seperate supercells may be already trying to congeal into a complex west of Goodland, KS. The tornado warned storm is barely moving (E at about 5) ... not sure how all this is going to play out.

Update-- TOR warned storm just took a massive dbz hit on the latest scan too.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

Cell in W Yuma Co has been over a state/US Highway (don't know which one). I'll be curious to see hail reports from it as LL scans have had 65-70 dbZ for a while now. Also has good convergence at LLs...might start rotating nicely here in the next few scans.

UPDATE--Same storm has a GREAT looking backsheared anvil and seems to have taken more of a right turn. Let's see how it fares in modified air out in front of it.

EDIT--Fairs should be FARES...I like the English

 

[Philip Flory]

Cell in W/C Yuma county now tornado warned as well. Current speed and motion would have it slamming into the other ragged stuff to it's east within 15-25min. Cannot imagine the other storms are having a positive affect on it's local inflow.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Cell west of Goodland now has a velocity couplet showing on the 1.5 degree tilt from GLD. Couplet also showing up on 0.5 degree tilt from FTG.

 

[tom hanlon]

We are in Wray under the warned storms.

Very messy and hard to chase, yes they are congealing.

Saw some wall cloud and rotation perhaps a funnel but no tor.

Not yet anyhow.

Good luck all

 

[bill mudd]

score
1 tornado in yuma
5 hail reports in yuma
3 hail reports in kit carson