Eric B'Hymer
I was near wolf creek 4/21 and they didnt bother me. Plus they are on outage right now.
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- Weather and Chasing
- Target Area
5/18/05: TALK: Central Plains
- Thread starter nickgrillo
- Start date
Bill Schintler
EF4
RE: Chase target for May 18
18Z KLMN sounding (just S of ICT)
Convective temperature = 80F
Estimated max. temperature = 81F
LCL = 1600m
LI = -3.2C
MLCAPE = 800 J/kg
CIN = -250 J/kg
(0-3km) SRH = 65m^2/s^2
Looks like lots of inhibition to get rid of there... As is further evidenced by the appearance of the CU field - no vertical extent. Things are better just to the W towards AVK, where cloud cover is thinner and better SFC heating is occurring. Expect initiation near ICT in one hour.
- billGlen Romine
EF5
I've been entertained watching the tounge of moisture in the backwash north of the front now bringing 60 dewpoints back into the eastern Oklahoma panhandle. Vis sat suggests that some "beefier" (is that a real word?) cumulus is bubbling back there. SPC mesoanalysis seems to completely miss this feature. There is a denser band of cumulus near the ICT vicinity - and a few struggling blips on the radar in northeastern KS (such as in Jackson County). If the northeast KS to extreme northwest MO area can manage to support a discrete storm or two, the low-level shear there is decent - but eastern areas remain well capped and dense cloud cover won't help. Shear in the southern KS area remains pretty sad - but maybe there is enough CAPE to overcome this some. Time will tell....
Glen
Scott Olson
EF5
Im in Yates Center right now and its nice and muggy. Probably going to wait here instead of going anymore SE. Good luck to all who are out today.
-Scott
Jeff Snyder
EF5
Re: RE: Chase target for May 18
No joke. The cap (centered right near 775mb) is very stout on the 18z Lamont sounding. I'm not sure the RUC has a good hold on the capping situation, since SPC analysis is showing >-50 CINH (as in a very weak cap) very near LMN right now, only 2 hours after that sounding, with it's -250 j/kg CINH. Temps have risen a few degrees since that sounding, though nowhere near what'd be necessary to break the cap given relatively weak forcing. Perhaps farther north into KS given slightly cooler low-mid levels, so we'll see....
By the way, I think that convective temp of 80F is for convection to occur UNDER the cap -- it's probably a computer issue. The REAL convective temp, to initiate deep moist convection through the troposphere, is near 96-97F!!Eric B'Hymer
Im only 20 miles away in Iola.
I take it you found the wifi spot by the high school?
Kiel Ortega
EF4
- Joined
- Jun 9, 2004
- Messages
- 325
Originally posted by Glen Romine
I've been entertained watching the tounge of moisture in the backwash north of the front now bringing 60 dewpoints back into the eastern Oklahoma panhandle. Vis sat suggests that some \"beefier\" (is that a real word?) cumulus is bubbling back there. SPC mesoanalysis seems to completely miss this feature. There is a denser band of cumulus near the ICT vicinity - and a few struggling blips on the radar in northeastern KS (such as in Jackson County). If the northeast KS to extreme northwest MO area can manage to support a discrete storm or two, the low-level shear there is decent - but eastern areas remain well capped and dense cloud cover won't help. Shear in the southern KS area remains pretty sad - but maybe there is enough CAPE to overcome this some. Time will tell....
Glen
I've been watching the same thing...the VAD from Vance AFB looks okay, though the Lamont profiler is rather sad. That Cu field there in the Panhandle has been rather persistant...however, I think given there is no "spreading" of the Cu (as we have in KS), the drier mid-level air is gonna win out there. Still keeping my hopes up for around Alva (my simulated target for the day)...even though I am stuck at the lab downloading all day
Chris Hayes
EF5
I'm sitting in a parking lot next to the Kansas Turnpike near Andover waiting for initiation. Rather disgusting so far. :?Mike Johnston
EF5
CIN now seems to be breaking down Grant and Alfalfa Cos. OK northeast to SG Co. KS per latest SPC Mesoanalysis. Windshift line still a little hard to pin down, with winds now out of SW at Newton, yet out of the E at Hutchinson and out of NE at Kingman. Sharp dewpoint gradient, though, with 39td at Great Bend and 66td at Newton, so definitely a surface boundary lingering yet just west of Wichita.
EDIT: Closer look at regional surface wind fields indicates a little area of low pressure in NW OK around Woods Co., which explains the easterlies around S Central KS.
Scott Olson
EF5
No, got cell coverage here. Im going to head another 20 miles east. There seems to be some clearing moving in now as well. Spotty but nonethless blue patches of sky.
-Scott.tom hanlon
EF2
Emporia, waiting
I am in Emporia waiting for something more discrete or definite to fire. Will probably head east about 20 miles. Like the sun in the west but suspect a little east wil get better over time.
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Tom HanlonGlen Romine
EF5
Convection still struggling in the Jackson and Wabaunsee county area of northeast KS - maybe showing a gradual trend toward more intense echoes - but it at a snail's pace thus far. Cumulus starting to firm up a bit down in the Woodward area as well near the surface mesolow - but nothing real threatening just yet. Still think the ne KS to nw MO is the best shot for a tornado - but those probs are pretty low. Elsewhere may have to wait until the atmosphere decouples and 6 'o clock magic begins.
GlenMike Johnston
EF5
Dick McGowan reports from the field, cumulus building over Lyon Co KS just E of Emporia, although not yet detecting a radar signature.Mike Johnston
EF5
Craven Sig Severe (index of ML CAPE and deep layer shear) values of 40+ showing on last mesoanalysis Grant Co. OK northeastward through Cowley Co and up to Butler Co. KS. This is also within area where cap looks like it has chance to break, with 90% relative humidity in layer between LCL and LFC, w/ CIN breaking down.Bill Schintler
EF4
ICT target...?
Smells like a bust in the making. As of 6:30 CDT, still nothing convincing going on with either the visible animation or radar. However, according to the SPC mesoanalysis (for whatever that's worth), CIN has been dropping consistently each hour, while surface convergence near ICT continues to increase and LFC is decreasing. The whole area must be in an area of subsidence.
Looking to the WV for clues as to possible upward motion in the mid/upper levels. It appears as though an area of higher WV (possibly indicative of UVV's) is approaching the GCK/DDC/PTT area... Thoughts? - billSimilar threads
