Chase target for today, May 18
Chase target:
Wichita, KS
Timing:
Storm initiation 4 PM CDT.
Storm type:
Supercells early in storm evolution, later evolving into multicell storms towards evening. Large hail will be the primary threat, along with a small chance for tornadoes.
Discussion:
15Z analysis showed low-pressure centered near GAG with a CF extending NE of this feature along a PTT/GBD/CNK line in KS. Ahead of the front, moisture was pooling, as was evidenced by dewpoints in the mid- to upper-60’s in WRN OK; while temperatures there were in the mid-70’s. At the upper levels, winds were generally light in the target area. A 125kt, 300mb streak was entering the PAC NW, while downstream from this feature in the target area was a weak S/WV trough entering WRN OK/KS. At 700mb, a 25kt streak was rounding the base of the trough at AMA. KLMN sounding showed a moist layer over 100mb deep along with a large loop in the hodograph below 700mb along with (0-3km) SRH around 250m^2/s^2.
SPC Mesoanalysis showed a significant amount of CIN yet to be removed, while RUC and NAM suggest storm initiation around 21Z and visible satellite already showed an evolving CU/ST field along and just N of the OK/KS border. Also of note was a thin CI canopy along and SW of a DDC/SWO line – most likely initiation will occur just N of this area under the zone of enhanced upper winds. MLCAPE’s AOA 2000J/kg, and decent shear parameters (SRH’s around 300m^2/s^2 once the surface winds back in advance of the surface low, and deep-layer shear of around 30kts) should support a wide range of severe WX even though mid-level winds will be fairly weak.
- bill
