4/5/10 FCST: NE,KS,OK,IA,MO

[John Sickels]

I'm very much an amateur compared to most of you, so please tell me what I'm missing here, but it looks to me like SPC is underplaying the chances of something firing in C and S Kansas, that the cap could erode more than expected, and chances of initiation are a bit higher than implied. Is my perception accurate?

 

[Jason Haller]

I'm very much an amateur compared to most of you, so please tell me what I'm missing here, but it looks to me like SPC is underplaying the chances of something firing in C and S Kansas, that the cap could erode more than expected, and chances of initiation are a bit higher than implied. Is my perception accurate?

from one amateur to another I think they are not underplaying it but the models overplayed that cap compared to the ground truth right now. Still lots in play but I believe the dryline is going to be a big play today. In Manhattan our dewpoint shot up 10 degrees in about 1 hour once the cloud cover broke. I think central Kansas will look like a string of Christmas lights along I-135. The RUC models are sowing a lone cell firing north of I-70 around 4 or 5 CST. We will see how this shows but I believe the dryline is play especially with all the convection still on going in Iowa.

Edit: talk about a difference 5 minutes makes. I don't believe the dryline has gone through Manhattan but we just had a 9 degree dewpoint drop here in Manhattan, from 64 to 55. Temperature rise by 5 degrees as well. To the west about the same.

 

[Michael Riedl]

I am sitting here in El Dorado, Kansas in class waiting for it to get over. Looking over the new MScale Analysis there is an area of 2500 Cape developing right over Butler County and into Greenwood County Kansas. Wouldn't this cape only be expected to increase as the day goes on? There also appears as if CIN is only -50 to even -25 in Eastern KS. Also (just an amateur) Doesn't it appear is if the dryline is further east than anticipated? Not really sure what any of this means but if something could pop then maybe we could get a good supercell going.

 

[Jason Persoff]

Edit: talk about a difference 5 minutes makes. I don't believe the dryline has gone through Manhattan but we just had a 9 degree dewpoint drop here in Manhattan, from 64 to 55. Temperature rise by 5 degrees as well. To the west about the same.

The area just south of the warm front (and all areas north of it) are pretty scoured for moisture. Manhattan is right on the front from sfc obs.

The biggest concern is that T/Td spreads in the N/C KS area have become BIG (30 deg in some cases). It's going to be high based in very warm 700mb temps.

We'll see .

 

[Steve Sherrod]

soil moisture

I'm new at this too, but I believe the heavy precipitation this winter is going to help with storm development over all the midwest. Looking at the current spc charts, the dryline is still in SW Ks,Ok,tx. The warm front looks to be near the I70 corridor and you may experience changes in the TD and temps as the front moves N. I still think Kingman to Marion will be a good spot for storm development. Cape is showing 1500-2500. I am concerned about the lapse rates though, they have changed since my last look at 1pm. I hope to be heading out this afternoon.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Sitting in Fairview, KS. Sky is clearing out, sun is coming out, temps are coming up. Sat animation looks like WF is just about to lift overhead on it's journey north. Field of CU to southwest, according to sat -- still can't see it from here. A bit worried about potential river crossings -- probably have to go through St. Joe if anything pops. BTW for anyone out here, HWY 73 N of Hiawatha is apparently closed; detours is via HWY 75.

 

[Jason Persoff]

Wow...a lot's changed in a few hours. I have little optimism about any major storms in KS at this time. Vis Sat shows just complete subsidence which fits the picture given the markedly broad T/Tds (70s-80s over 30s!), lack of any focusing mechanism as sfc convergence has marched right on into MO and IA (with winds out of the WSW in a large part of KS), and stout capping inversion. For those out, I hope I'm wrong.

The big show is the conditional threat right at the KS/MO/NE/IA borders. This has got my attention. I like the visible satellite and the hodographs in that area a great deal. The atmosphere seems to really be recovering well there despite the convection earlier. Check out the pooling on the warm front: Td's increasing by >12 in the past 3 hrs!

CIN is diminishing there too. Looks like the impulse moving over W KS now should hit just about 00z. I like the area N of TOP right now. That would be my virtual target.