@Drew Terril you are not alone in favoring warm front targets. Always an interesting decision process as to whether to take the option on a more conditional but potentially better (more discrete, classic, etc.) storm on the dryline , versus more likely but potentially messier storm mode near the triple point…
A couple of days ago I would have leaned toward the triple point for this event and targeted generally in the SE Nebraska area. But now the GFS shows a veer-back profile in that area. I wouldn’t necessarily call it veer-back on the Euro, but 500mb is somewhat meridional there. It looks quite cool on the north side of the warm front. Meanwhile, the cap seems breakable on GFS at least as far south as the KS border possibly into northern OK, and the position/orientation of the mid-level trough is better there. Nice sharp dryline on GFS. As
@James Gustina noted, the dryline is not nearly as sharp on the Euro, which anecdotally seems to have been the case with the previous one or two setups. One concern is the surging cold front, could this overtake the dryline in KS?
At this point my armchair chase target would be somewhere around Ponca City, although if I were actually chasing I would have to weigh terrain considerations. I really would not want to have to chase east from there…
Edit: Wrote the above before reading SPC Day 2 issued 06z on 4/28. They note that CAM guidance (which I have not yet looked at) leaves an outflow boundary from prior convection across southern KS. Obviously something to look for on Friday and would certainly be a reason to adjust my target northward, where the terrain is also at least a little better.