4/29/10 FCST: TX, OK, KS, NE

[Eric Treece]

If I were able to chase today I kind of like the area around Manhattan KS on the latest NAM. Decent 500mb winds and Cape. The thing I like the most about this area is somewhat of a dryline bulge. I wish the surface winds were a little more backed, but I think it has some potential. If for anything perhaps a nice high based supercell. If more moisture can make it up that far, I think it could yield more.

 

[Scott Olson]

The 12z models are looking more like the GFS. The front is well into Iowa and SE Nebraska by 0z. Taking a look at theta-e convergence, there isn't an awful lot. As pointed out there is problems with LCL's upwards of 1500m, which perhaps may come down as low as 1250m around 0z-01z. There is a marked area of drying in NE Kansas that begins around 19z. The PVA should start around in the later afternoon. Looking at the RUC, there will still be some instability near Hebron but the dry pokect to the east is rather stable.

I'm going to go ahead and favor NE Kansas. Wamengo to north of Topeka.

 

[Andrew Burnett]

I would camp on the I70 Junction city exit. Wait for some sort of initiation. That's a good transit point as things start up to adjust the plan.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I am planning on heading up towards the Hutchinson area this afternoon. I'm sure I'll tweak the target several times based on how the moisture gradient looks and what the surface low is doing, but Hutchinson seems like a good starting off point for now. I definitely want to cheat downstream of where I expect storms to develop today. Good luck to everybody if you're heading out.

 

[Jon Powell]

I am with Mikey - Hutch to Salina look to be a good starting point. The RUC progs for 0z look very good here in Central KS. All of the ingredients are there for good storm development if we can get the cap to break..RUC is showing a weakend cap around 0z just West of the I 135 corridor.

 

[Matthew Harding]

Agree with Mikey and Jon about setup today. Think the place to be is just south of the dryline/cold front point and slightly ahead of the dryline. Definitely do not want to be playing catch up, given storm motions. Think the place to be is along the 135 corridor, with my jumping off point being in the McPherson-Salina corridor. Best of luck to all who will be going out today.

 

[Chris Carter]

Sounds like the intial convection that gets started in KS around mid afternoon will form behind the front and be hard pressed to turn severe. Northeast KS, along the KS/NE border is where the severe storms will likely form late afternoon/early evening. My guess would be around 6pm somewhere along the triple point is where my setup is going to be today. Probably won't leave Lincoln until the first storms start to develop behind the cold front in north central KS.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Convection is starting to form just to my West (salina, KS) - have a look at my Webcam for a view (Severe Studio)

 

[Chris Carter]

Looks like the dryline has already pushed through Russell, KS and a CU field is going up along it just to the west Salina, KS.