4/28/06 NOW: TX

Mar 23, 2004
Surface based storms have initiated SW of Lubbock in the tornado watch where the sun has been baking the low levels leading to a moderately unstable environment. It appears the dryline bulge is underway and winds have veered to the SW to the south of the surface low located in the west TX panhandle. The chasers near the CDS area will see the benefit of the sun soon as convective mixing in the wake of this mornings elevated showers is leading to decreasing stratus. If I had a ride today I'd be near Paducah where the pseudo-warm front has backed the surface flow to the ESE beneath a strong SSW LLJ.
Three cells have developed in the last 45 minutes and now lie oriented NW to SE and about 12 miles apart from each other. The northern two cells have been dueling for dominance, while the northern storm had a brief reflectivity spike of 65+ dbs, low level rotation, thought not yet significant, is stronger in the middle storm at the moment. New storms now going up a few miles south of Clairemont and 15 miles WSW of Snyder.
they might be surface based - or at least close to it. If you look at the vis sat - you can see these 3 cells developed along three parallel cloud bands leading the dryline - with the cells initiating near where these cloud bands cross the warm front in that region. the rightmost cells is struggling - and the surface obs shows temps along the eastern side of the cells are ~ 5 F cooler, north of the warm front - which appears may not be good enough. The anvil from these storms won't do areas down shear any favors for further heating. You can make out the warm front boundary on the LBB base scan - and it arcs from the cells northwestward to potentially intersect with the cell in castro county - which if that cell get an updraft rooted on the warmer side of the boundary might be able to do something interesting as the cell moves into Swisher county. Notably the cumulus field has become more sparse over the last hour between the Dickens county storm and the Castro county cell - so I'm not confident other convection will develop in the corridor in the short term. I think you have go with the cell headed toward Guthrie at this point and hope for the best.
A gust front from the storm that moved through Dimmitt currently extends NE to SW in through the far SWern panhandle, and then ESE to WNW through east central NM, and has kicked off a string of cold core low topped small storms with max tops to 35k feet. TVS even on one of the cells SE of Fort Sumner for a scan, but I suspect that may be in error due to its location relative to the nearest storms, on the northeast edge of anvil precip and too far southeast (8-10 miles) of the nearest updraft. Initially thought these storms to be possible mini supercells, but the 30s to 40 degree dewpoints and weak backed surface winds from eastern to central NM probably kills that idea.
The cell entering Armstrong County SE of Amarillo seems to be showing a good deal of shear/rotation......

EDIT: Maybe a hook forming on the lowest altitude composite radar image??
A group of us are sitting in Childress (Dan, Robin, Gabe, JR, myself, others) waiting to see what happens as the front/dryline intersection shifts southward as the front sags to the southeast. I'm not too happy about the weak-moderate convection from Vernon to west of Haskell, which is leaving us with only a 2-county wide area between that area and the the dryline. Ah well, we play the wait game... The towers with the convection to the west of CDS look crisp.
Those 2 cells southwest of Sonora are definitely beasts! The southern one has a hook and a 70 DBZ core; tornado warned as well. On one scan, it took on a tornado cane type appearance.

Law enforcement reporting a tornado on the ground in Lamoure County North Dakota. I bet you guys chasing in Texas will be p-oed if nothing produces!
Sitting in Childress doesn't seem very hopeful ... the cold front is dragging southward quickly ... though there is support for backed low level flow in the vicinity of the triple point, the overall helicity does not seem supportive from 0-3 km ... this might be attributable to winds at 700 mb seemingly weak according to the RUC analysis.

Though if I was chasing I would be highlighting the triple point as well. So odd that NAM models, and later RUC models, were playing the greatest 0-6 km shears and helicities south and east along with an expectant low further south.

We've dropped south of CDS now, with the cold front looking like it's undercutting developing convection. There are a few gustnadoes/dust devils actually where we're sitting (next to a giant plowed field)... At least we're getting some rotational lovin'.
Absolutely amazing supercell down east of Del Rio. VAD from DFX shows a nice profile and the DRT 18Z sounding has a nice set up too for this storm. If you look at the 3.5 degree tilt from DFX, there's a nice doughnut shaped storm with probably an AMAZING updraft on the thing. Don't know if the area is populated much or not, but it would be a shame if that thing at least didn't get a big hail report to justify its existence.
The storm in Val Verde county (S of Sonora) is really phenomenal looking. Look at it on 1km satellite: http://weather.cod.edu/satellite/1km/W_Texas.gif

What a freakin' classic supercell! I especially love the flanking line....reflectivity (from SJT) maxing out at 75, VIL=73, G2G=-123/90(kts) on tilt 2.

I've chased right down there several times, though, and it's an absolutely impossible place to chase a storm.

As for N of there, is a lack of cap ruining everything?

*edit* Kiel: Assuming you mean north of Del Rio.....No, there is nobody down there at all. Buzzards, yes, people, no. Zero.
*re-edit*: SJT now has SR G2G at -123/101 kts on tilt 1.
As for N of there, is a lack of cap ruining everything?

That is a distinct possibility. Both the 12Z and the 18Z soundings did not look anything impressive for keeping convection down during the normal daytime heating ... Around DRT there was a minimal cap, enough to build up the low level moisture and combine that with the wonderful shear and helicity profiles models were progging.

With a squall line developing across most of central TX I'm not sure if anything will essentially be tornadic to the north as strong, moist low level flow is probably weakened ... squall line acting like a speed bump.
The supercell nearing Rock Springs looks quite phenomenal, there is 80dbz extending to 28,000ft and TBSS on most tilts.
Storm over SW Oklahoma near Mangum shows broad, weak low level rotation and appears may be rainwrapped. Waiting on the Tornado warning and live cut in by all of the TV stations...what fun!
Edwards cnty storm doesn't look as good via satellite nor radar now.

My guess is that it has occluded as a result of wandering into calmer sfc winds and water loading from the drippy PW environment it is entering.

*edit* Disregard...looks pretty good again, LOL.