4/24/07 NOW: OK / TX / KS

[Justin Bailey]

looking like an isolated storm SE of Brownwood, Tx is startin to get its act together. radar presentation is looking pretty good, and its located right in the HIGH risk area. could be getting interesting here fairly shortly!

 

[rdale]

I hope this is not another "Jerrold Day"

Are you speaking of the Jerrell TX tornado? If so - a cursory glance doesn't seem to indicate these setups look even remotely similar to me, am I missing it?

 

[Tony Lyza]

Are you speaking of the Jerrell TX tornado? If so - a cursory glance doesn't seem to indicate these setups look even remotely similar to me, am I missing it?

I think he meant in terms of severity.

I'd really watch the storm in Mills County. It is isolated, it is moving in the general direction of Dallas, and it will have mesoscale boundaries to work with.

 

[James Siler]

CU field starting to form west of Lahoma, OK. You can see it forming all along the dryline. One tower trying to form but keeps getting sheared apart.

 

[Donald Giuliano]

I'm thinking that the SPC is about a category too high most places for this event. The situation is Texas in the HIGH does indeed look interesting, but I personally think a moderate would easily suffice...I'd be very surprised if the high even comes close to verifying. As for northeast KS, I'm not at all impressed with what the 18Z NAM is forecasting up there, and although the RUC is somewhat better, I don't think either suggests the 15% hatched tornado is really warranted.

 

[HAltschule]

Are you speaking of the Jerrell TX tornado? If so - a cursory glance doesn't seem to indicate these setups look even remotely similar to me, am I missing it?

That would be the Jarrell, TX tornado (spelling). The area currently is under a fair amount of clouds and still has some CINH in place. It looks more likely for storm to fire in the clear slot ahead of the dryline further west where CAPE values are 2000-4000 J/KG and LI's are near -8. Only a matter of time for things to pop in a big way and then head east toward the Jarrell, TX area. But I agree....a very different setup.

 

[rdale]

Closer than Jerrold ;> NE Collin Co (TX) has a nice looking bow to it now, looks like a good spot for high winds approaching Trenton. I'm not too sold on the Mills Co TX cell.

 

[Chad Ringley]

I'm thinking that the SPC is about a category too high most places for this event. The situation is Texas in the HIGH does indeed look interesting, but I personally think a moderate would easily suffice...I'd be very surprised if the high even comes close to verifying. As for northeast KS, I'm not at all impressed with what the 18Z NAM is forecasting up there, and although the RUC is somewhat better, I don't think either suggests the 15% hatched tornado is really warranted.

Don, I think you are right on the money. So far, only a couple of cells have really acquired deep rotating updrafts and though the kinematic profile may become increasingly more favorable for discrete cells to do so, the thermodynamics are so complicated from the early convection that upgrading TX was a bit of a stretch.

The group I'm basing for was south and closing in on the Godley, TX tornado but couldn't get a clear look with all the haze, drizzle, and cloud cover out there. They are headed SW to take a peek at this cell on the Hamilton/Comanche County line.

 

[Chad Ringley]

Changing gears a bit,

SPC Has HIGH RISK for central TX (near Waco). I hope this is not another "Jerrold Day" - 30% hatched tornado is scary.

FWIW, the 1997 Jarrell, TX F5 tornado formed on a stationary outflow boundary and propagated SW very slowly in incredible amounts of instability and incredibly small vertical wind shear.

Today, however, as Howard pointed out, the best area for redevelopment near the "High" risk area would be in the vicinity of the dryline where a narrow band of clearing is likely elevating MLCAPEs back closer to 2000 J/kg (per latest SPC Mesoanalysis) in Central/SW Texas.

 

[Marcus Opitz]

sitting in wellington, ks, the sky is clearing to the west. Awaiting the cu field to our nw to get going

 

[Jason Bolt]

Towers shooting up rapidly just east of Great Bend stretching down to the south along the dryline.

 

[Ben Prusia]

Sitting in Park City, KS off of I-135, there is some clearing going on to the due west.. I am still hoping for the dryline which is just east of Pratt to fire up something.

 

[Donald Giuliano]

Don, I think you are right on the money. So far, only a couple of cells have really acquired deep rotating updrafts and though the kinematic profile may become increasingly more favorable for discrete cells to do so, the thermodynamics are so complicated from the early convection that upgrading TX was a bit of a stretch.

I think the region they upgraded to high really hasn't really seen a whole lot of convection today, but there are certainly locations that have to the north in the moderate. My main concern has been that all the storms in the high risk area are moving north-northeast to northeast, which places their storm motion on the hodograph nearly on top of the low-level shear vector, which of course means your SRH is essentially zero. Yuck. Until I see some bigtime right-movers, I'm not looking for much to happen, and there hasn't been any indication so far that storms will right-move very much.

 

[James Siler]

Still sitting southeast of Lahoma watching a persistent area CU trying to go but still not quite getting with it. Still hopeing. On a different note just got a visit from the friendly Garfield County sheriffs department.

 

[mark plate]

strong rotation near tulsa intl. airport...... micro burst at the airport ATC reports 60kts roughly 65-70 mph

I'm in Tulsa...not impressed at all with tornado potential with this storm. Deep layer shear is still marginal at best for supercells/tornadoes in NE OK. Still hoping for something between ICT/END in 2-3 hours where parameters are much better at this time. Will likely head that way very shortly.