4/24/07 NOW: OK / TX / KS

[Billy Griffin]

With watches already out, and an intensifying cell near Lawton, OK - thought we'd start the NOW thread for today.
Cell just west of Lawton, OK continues to increase in reflectivity and doesn't have too bad a signature either! It may still be elevated, but it has been steadily increasing over the past 30 minutes. It's now Svr-Tstm warned.

 

[Chad Ringley]

Dryline appears to be activating quasi-continuously all the way down into W CTRL TX...with svr tstm warnings now for Jones and Taylor Counties, and Coke and Runnells Counties. Other smaller cells are forming between the cell near Lawton and these warned cells along I-20.

 

[Kenny Drake]

The cell WNW of Lawton looks the most promising right now but over the last few radar scans cells have been popping up everywhere just south of it, to me this looks like a broken line congealing to a line over central OK.

 

[Billy Griffin]

The cell NNW of Lawton *almost* looks like it's taking on the characteristics of an embedded SUP within the line. If it continues to root and becomes surface based, look out OKC / Yukon! May need to pack up and head west on 40.

 

[HAltschule]

Mesoanalysis data from the last hour shows that areas from Central Kansas southward through and including central parts of Texas a primed for a major severe weather event. The best chance for longer lived tornadoes appears to be over South-Central Kansas and then again from North-Central Texas Southward. The line of storms west of OKC will be a nice wind and hail producer as it moves into 2500 J/KG air and no cap or CINH. The VAD Profiler data from OKC does not show entirely too much veering with height. In fact, it shows more of a linear component to the wind profile and even some minor backing of the wind above the ground layer. It will be interesting to watch this line of storms, but the best TOR potential appears to be over S/C Kansas and N/C Texas.

 

[Jason Branz]

Surface obs show a developing dryline bulge along the OK/KS border. The nose appears to be just north of the border in Harper and Sumner counties. The area bounded by Wellington-Wichita-Hutchinson is where I'd like to be right now.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Little mass of reflectivity just entering SW Sedgwick Co., Kansas looks like it is trying to go vertical over last few scans...even at this hour, parameters are pretty healthy in this general area w/ low LCL's, substantial instability and low-level helicity. This one may get punched down, but worth keeping an eye on at least for the moment.

 

[HAltschule]

There is some low and mid level rotation over Spring Creek, OK in Caddo County. If any tornado develops in this area, it will be a rain wrapped tube.

 

[Robert Balogh]

From Lawton

Stuck at work here in Lawton - The storm that popped up south of the Caddo county storm rolled thru here about 20 minutes ago - Heavy rain, some straight line gusts, but if there was any kind of hail core it missed Lawton proper, - and moving FAST

I was gonna try and chase this afternoon after getting off work around 2-2:30, but I dont see it now. Good luck to anyone out there and hope something more discreet and slow moving shows up somewhere

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Once again guys, this is only the first of what will more than likely be two rounds in Oklahoma today. The latest SPC outlook even points to that. This line coming through now is actually ahead of the dryline now.

 

[David Wolfson]

On the virtual road now north from Hays toward Phillipsburg to arrive by 18:00Z, anticipating following US36 east As Long As It Takes. Forcing is moving in briskly from the wsw approaching Hays/Hill City. RUC suggests front being pushed southward into KS. This is good for added convergence. Something should spin up somewhere by about 22Z along -- oh -- a 300 mile line 100 miles deep....

...Arriving Smith Center data check around 18:30Z. Training showers forming and rapidly moving nne toward front near KS/NE border.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Good point Lance! This dryline "stall" can be seen on the OK mesonet data. Shane's right - I think I AM going bonkers! ;-) What I was fearing is that the dryline was going to haul it all the way to Ft. Smith by 5pm. As you guys are pointing out now, OKC looks to be in big trouble if this second round verifies. For now at least, I'm just staying right here at work (OKC) and will await the second round opportunity and see what transpires.

 

[Evan Stubbart]

Decided to sit tight in the Denton, TX area and do a home chase today because I have no phone. We got some rain this morning and then some sun for a bit and you can feel something in the air. It appears that there is a cell trying to spin out in the line of storms south of Wichita Falls, TX around Graham. Does anyone else see that?

 

[Skip Talbot]

I think the main show may still be yet to come in southern and central OK. This is andrew again... looking at the new ruc, by around 0Z the stupid squall that was indeed forecasted to be here at 18z will be out of here. Models then increase instability, the dry line tightens, and we may see re-initiation a little south of OKC. We will likely relocated south from our current Enid, OK location.

 

[Brian Emfinger]

back of shelf cloud near tuttle, ok.

since I was already out here early I thought i might as well play around with this stuff...now gonna scoot down the front of the line for a bit.