Brian McKibben
EF3
The first cells are currently going up just West of North Platte, NE. Some already have at least 40 BDZ. It looks like they are moving into a more favorable environment with 2000 j/kg of CAPE and increasing shear.
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4/21/07 NOW: TX/OK/KS/CO/NE/SD
- Thread starter Brian McKibben
- Start date
Jordan Hartley
Another interesting area of activity has started taking place in extreme ne NM. A tightley packed area of cu has started to show life in the last 20 min. Although the towers are being sheared apart right now this activity should track in an ENE direction and into better moisture and shear. Showers still persistant in NE although not really impressed with how they are showing up on the vis sat but this activity will evolve with time.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
Gabe Garfield, myself, and several others are sitting on the east side of AMA... Latest vis sat indicates Cu developing in the warm, dry air west of I27. A couple of last night's 4km WRF runs showed an elongated, N-S low reflectivity area moving through eastern NM through early afternoon, before moving over the dryline and areas west of I27 by mid-late afternoon. As this feature approached and moved over the dryline, rapid initiation was forecast along much of I27 (between AMA and LBB). This low reflectivity area in the high-res WRF may be showing up as the narrow band of N-S-oriented mid- and upper-level cloud cover in eastern NM.
Agree that situation does not look incredibly impressive. I'm worried that we'll see initiation in the hot, dry air just east of the NM/TX border may result in cold pool mergers that will give us a squall line before the storms can even really move into the better moisture along and just west of I27. But hey, we shall see.
We're playing the waiting game, since there are valid arguments to go N into the northern TX panhandle, and there are valid arguments to go south towards Plainview and points just south of there. If we can get initiation west of Plainview, we'll be in good position to intercept. SPC mesoanlysis valid 20z showed strong cap remains east of I27. *shrug*
Not too hot on the backing wind profile seen in the 700-800mb layers on several profilers/soundings. Though the CAA associated with that backing may help remove the cap as strong deep ascent spread over the warm sector, it'll also give us sloppy hodographs.
Agree that situation does not look incredibly impressive. I'm worried that we'll see initiation in the hot, dry air just east of the NM/TX border may result in cold pool mergers that will give us a squall line before the storms can even really move into the better moisture along and just west of I27. But hey, we shall see.
We're playing the waiting game, since there are valid arguments to go N into the northern TX panhandle, and there are valid arguments to go south towards Plainview and points just south of there. If we can get initiation west of Plainview, we'll be in good position to intercept. SPC mesoanlysis valid 20z showed strong cap remains east of I27. *shrug*
Not too hot on the backing wind profile seen in the 700-800mb layers on several profilers/soundings. Though the CAA associated with that backing may help remove the cap as strong deep ascent spread over the warm sector, it'll also give us sloppy hodographs.
Jim Bishop
EF4
Repositioned to Canyon. Saw the 18z soundings and wanted to be a little closer to the upper support. Looks like small echo tops are showing up in vicinity of Tucumcari/Clovis NM along the dryline. I'm expecting initiation in the next hour or so.
I'd like to be just a little further west, but I finally found another data source, so it looks like I'm here 'till initiation. The shear's looking great I just hope the cap isn't too strong, choking storms and limiting tornado potential. It should't be given the strong upper system, so here we go..
I'd like to be just a little further west, but I finally found another data source, so it looks like I'm here 'till initiation. The shear's looking great I just hope the cap isn't too strong, choking storms and limiting tornado potential. It should't be given the strong upper system, so here we go..
nickgrillo
EF5
Interesting to see the SPC has just went with a PDS red box for the TX/OK panhandles. RUC forecast soundings for AMA (click on the 06hr frame) are extremely favorable for surface-based supercells by the late afternoon -- with the inversion layer eroding by strong large-scale ascent provided by the intense DPVA currently moving across central NM. The RUC forecast sounding for AMA at 00z indicates >250m2/s2 0-1km SRH (suggestive of the strong boundary layer hodograph curvature) with >2000j/kg of surface-based CAPE. As Jeff mentioned above, the main concern for the area will be the location of initiation... If we do see initiation a bit further east, then we'll have the potential for strong, sustained surface-based supercells with the potential for giant hail and tornadoes. The RUC has a >50kt SSErly LLJ forming over the region just after 00z... We'll see... I think today has the potential to be a winner.
If I had been chasing today, I would definitely be positioned in AMA right about now as well.
If I had been chasing today, I would definitely be positioned in AMA right about now as well.
Jordan Hartley
Action starting in ne Co with exploding towers showing up on vis sat. Radar showing strong echos around SE of Sterling, Co. This has been going on for about 15-20 min and im impressed with what im seeing. Looks like the nrn target is for sure going to pay off today! Several cells already showing sup structure on radar.
EDIT: I think we will see the south end of the dryline start to show life real soon as the cu field has expanding across the Tx panhandle.
EDIT: I think we will see the south end of the dryline start to show life real soon as the cu field has expanding across the Tx panhandle.
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Billy Griffin
Just a little north of AMA on 287, I can see towering Cu going up rapidly off to the west, but it's getting sheared apart. I know it's only 4:30, but I'm starting to get a little concerned over just how strong the cap really is?
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Jim Bishop
EF4
WV loops shows the vort max moving over Central NM right now and rapidly making it's way into Eastern NM. I'd expect explosive development in the next 30 min or so as it approaches the dryline.
rdale
EF5
No TAMDAR flights from NE south, but eastern SD has a 3.4*C cap at 800mb as of 4:24pm CDT
Paul Stofer
EF2
Just north of plainview watching a tower explode to my NW by about 10 miles. Hasn't showed on echo tops yet
EDIT: TCu has decayed dramatically in the past few minutes. Appears to be turkey towers.
EDIT: TCu has decayed dramatically in the past few minutes. Appears to be turkey towers.
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Ryan McGinnis
EF5
Cruising down a rural Nebraskan highway south of Grant, NE. We saw the "tower" going up on the storm now NW of KLNX, but it was verrrry high based and not vfery well put together. Headed south now a bit to decide if the storm in NE Colorado is the storm we want, or if we need to wait a little longer to see what else plays out. For chasers on the storm in NE Colorado, be aware that the road network positively SUCKS once you get north of I-80 in Nebraska. Seriously, you'll want to pull your hair out.
Surface winds are very strong out of the south/southeast where we are. Sky is mostly covered in cloudcover -- hard to do much visual. Almost feels like one of those warm front setups instead of a dryline setup, though, of course, it's not.
Surface winds are very strong out of the south/southeast where we are. Sky is mostly covered in cloudcover -- hard to do much visual. Almost feels like one of those warm front setups instead of a dryline setup, though, of course, it's not.
Jordan Hartley
Yes things are coming together as I speak in the Tx panhandle. Ive spotted 3 towers of intrest right along the dryline. I just took a look at the radar and imseeing echos with the most impressive tower to the Nw of Amarillo or SE of Dalhart, Tx. That cell in ne CO is a monster and is showing roation both up in the storm and near the surface. Also showing an impressive anvil on vis sat. Very dangerous storm will track into NE.
Edit: Exploding tower NW of Amarillo. Things are now firing on the dryline in the Tx panhandle.
Edit: Exploding tower NW of Amarillo. Things are now firing on the dryline in the Tx panhandle.
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rdale
EF5
Getting very large hail on AE (2" +) and now some rotation indicated in NE Colorado on an unwarned storm, has a history of .75-1" reported. Slowly drifting northeast.
Rotation is due south of Haxtun, noticable in SRV & a notch on reflect, although I'm wondering if it's slow movement will hurt its inflow.
EDIT: Warning now issued for quarter-sized hail possible.
Rotation is due south of Haxtun, noticable in SRV & a notch on reflect, although I'm wondering if it's slow movement will hurt its inflow.
EDIT: Warning now issued for quarter-sized hail possible.
rdale
EF5
TAMDAR showing weakening cap in eastern SD - reporting 2.3*C and lifted to 750mb...
Jordan Hartley
Just checked out Reed Timmer's live gps tracker. They are on 2 cells to the SW of Amarillo. Both storms are looking good on radar. Both cells are tracking towards the ne and will affect Amarillo and Canyon in the next 20-30 min although I think the storm just W of Hereford will come out the dominate storm. Im afraid that if the cell starts rotating it will right turn right into Canyon.
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