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4/19/06 FCST: IN, KY, and TN

well it looks like the low that will fire off the strong storms on tuesday will weaken a bit come wednesday, NAM forcasting the 1008mb to be in mid-tn at 0z. NAM also brings in 70+dp's (approaching 75 in mid-tn), but i know the models have been over doing it a bit on dp recently. Still i think 70 is reasonable given the ammount of moisture currently in the srn plains. I really like the 3500+ cape forcasted for the entire area, and the 4500 in central ky and mid-tn. LI's of -10 also look real nice, however the only downfall is wind shear. For the first time this year it appears that we will have two days with strong instability in a row yet with very weak shear. 30-40 kts at 500 mb will hopefully be enough to keep things supercellular for a couple hours. this looks like it will be more of a linear event to me though.
 
SWODY 2 now mentions possibility of a couple tornadoes in the region. Hoping these cells will translate more slowly than the recent events that had 45-60mpn rates.
 
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