4/17/04 FCST:PLAINS

[Shane Adams]

Just took my first serious look at the day (Saturday) that everyone else has been freaking out over since last weekend. Let me first say thanks to all of you guys for sitting and obsessing over these models days upon days; I don't have to because all of you do it for me :wink:

As usual, I'm surprised very litte yet optimistic about tomorrow's chances. Everything I've looked at (via ETA/GFS) says that there's a decent chance of storms tomorrow from SW Oklahoma through SW Kansas. I just don't see the capping inversion that everyone is talking about; last time I checked, 8c at h7 was pretty much perfect. And high teens/low 20s at h85 is pretty doable as well. Maybe with the lack of the main 500 jet max (until Sunday) everyone is thinking the little impulses moving around the trough won't be enough? Possible, but certainly not probable (or inprobable) at this point. So I fail to see the cap issue.

Next on my list is the moisture issue. I saw very adequate theta-e profiles at both h85 and h7, didn't see anything near the mess we had on April 9th (and we had storms that day). Perhaps I'm over-simplifying my analysis, but I don't see a big moisture issue either.

UVV profiles show initiation along the OK/TX pan border by 0Z. Decent shear, temps, and moisture are shown to exist in this corridor around this time. I live and die by UVVs. I only wish I'd paid attention to them prior to 2002.

Of course, this is the ETA/GFS we're talking about, both of which completely blew April 9th's initiation while the RUC was all over it. Again, I'm quite content to sit and wait for tomorrow's early RUC runs, and I'll go exactly where its UVV spikes are.

Another day that looks to hold wonderful potential and prizes should one trust oneself enough and the models less. I'm enjoying these types of set-ups leading up to events; lots of pessimists out there and the fewer people I have to deal with in this horribly-overrated state, the more I love it 8)

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Originally posted by Shane Adams
I have to deal with in this horribly-overrated state, the more I love it 8)

Never thought I'd see the day - - -

Actually I'm still optimistic about tomorrow as well and will also be paying attention to the RUC (for what it's worth - about as 'trustworthy' as any these days). The possibilities remain interesting. The question for me revolves more around playing with the DL or putting stock in the WF ... which will produce ... will either ... the wind environment is certainly favorable, and I hope for moisture depth to improve during the overnight. Would be so nice if we could blow some of it up off the surface a ways.

Anyway - all the best to everyone heading out tomorrow. I'm thinking more along the line of the DL, only because it's KANSAS and not IOWA and I am just anxious to drive around in the open country, blue sky or not.

 

[Austin Ivey]

Great comment Shane. Like you said, one of the reasons I will head to Liberal tomorrow is that their probably won't be many people out. At least not compared to the mid-March event in OK.

Where do you get your graphics for RUC UVV's??

Thanks
Austin

 

[Tony Laubach]

Off to Kansas I go! In less than an hour, I'll be leaving Denver for Hays where I will crash overnight and await the morning's data (I'll be at the Hays Public Library at open).

I'm siding with Shane on his positive attitude, but I won't lie and say moisture depth isn't bothering me a bit. Still, I imagine something's gonna go.. just a matter of where and when. In any case, I'll be looking for tomorrow's runs and analyze the situation further.

Good luck to everyone heading out, and for those heading to Kansas, maybe I'll see ya! Be watchin' for the 'WX NERD' from Colorado!

Happy Hunting!

 

[Shane Adams]

Originally posted by Austin Ivey
Where do you get your graphics for RUC UVV's??

http://weather.cod.edu


Just follow the easy menu and choose the model run of your choice :arrow:

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Originally posted by Shane Adams
. I'm enjoying these types of set-ups leading up to events; lots of pessimists out there and the fewer people I have to deal with in this horribly-overrated state, the more I love it 8)

Ouch. I guess I would be counted among the pessimists for this event anyway. But the soundings are what they are, and the ETA is wrong about moisture--that much we know. We can compare what it shows and what there really is. I don't necessarily think that means there won't be supercells or even torndoes; all it means is that the guidance is faulty.

 

[Shane Adams]

As promised, I stopped looking at models late last night and decided to let the RUC spell it our for me this morning. While I've yet to see any 0Z runs, the 21Z model I looked at spelled it "C R A P."

SPC's latest outlook (much like the previous one) speaks pretty much the same tone. I'm willing to sit here monitoring conditions all day from the comfort of the puter desk, but I'm beginning to concede defeat, after having just returned from a stroll to the neighborhood store and having witnessed a ton of mid-level cloudage racing north on the 850 jet. So as if things weren't complicated enough as is, this final "kick while we're down" element probably just ended my hopes of a chase today.

But anything can happen, and I'm not turning my back on this quite yet....

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Yes, the mighty cap is already rearing it's ugly head. I'm still wondering if there will be enough of a push along the dryline anywhere to overcome it, and will probably take a look at the areas around NC KS and SC NE before the morning is out ... but otherwise I'll use the day to continue shaping the car up for tomorrow.

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

The 12Z soundings are pretty bleak...the available moisture has little depth and there is a substantial cap (note: the moisture sensor on the 12Z OUN sounding was defective).

It looks like mid-upper 80s on the dryline will be sufficient to pop a few high-based storms. Given the dewpoint depressions will be on the order of 30F, it's doesn't look like it's worth it to me to take the drive from Norman into the panhandle. I'll save my pennies for later in the season.

 

[Michael Shively]

well....anybody look at the day 1 outlook? they are predicting a fairlly good day...even with the cap so strong and all...i think i will make the treck to DSM and then further north probably.....hope to see some of you up there



Good Luck everyone



Mike

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Maybe it's just my eyes deceiving me (I just woke up), but the sfc analysis now shows dewpoints in the 70s along the Gulf coast. Only a narrow plume of moisture may be available(since these higher Tds are only located in the W. Gulf), but it might be significant enough to warrant a greater risk for tomorrow. Also, the moisture doesn't appear too deep, but it is much better than anything I've seen in soundings for the past 2 days. I'm not giving up on this one quite yet.

Gabe

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

My Two Cents Worth

Good Morning,

Thought I would put in my two cents worth for my Target Area that I picked this morning. In spite of wishful discussion about some of you that wanted to chase in Kansas today, I think the action is going to be smack in the heart of Iowa today.

I did most of my analysis on the NWS website, using the experimental graphic maps they have set up. Look at the morning's dewpoints for Iowa in this link:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/forecasts/graphica...ppermissvly.php

You will see a dewpoint difference zone running from the SW corner of the state to the middle of the northern tier. As you run your mouse over the morning and afternoon hour boxes, you will see the dewpoints for the S-SE part of Iowa jump into the 60s and peak nearly close to 65 in the middle of the state.

Then run your mouse over the MIN/MAX TEMP box, you will see the SW corner of IA will be cooking in the mid-upper 80s by 5 p.m..

Taking into consideration the forecasted movement of the frontal boundary northward thru Iowa today, I have selected...drum roll...an area N-NW of Des Moines IA to be the Target Area. The convective heating and the bumped-up dew points in SW Iowa will combine to initial CBs. They will develop as they move northward. The storms will max up once they pass the I-80 corridor. Either a supercell or a squall line will develop and you have your storm chase, folks.

Have fun chasing. I pulled an all-nighter at work and I need to rest up. Besides I may get a ringside seat tomorrow when a low pressure center and a cold front will combine to produce severe storms in KS and NE. No chasing here. Just step outside and enjoy the view!! 8) LJK.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Kansas looking like a big ol' bust.. defininetly looks as if Iowa is going to take the brunt of today's action. Although the threat for severe weather hasn't totally been called off, I would imagine a long day for those who ventured out this way *raises hand skeptically* I've flirted with the idea of blasting north into Iowa, but my limited finances are playing a roll and I may elect to swallow my pride for today and kick back for tomorrow's potential as the cold front digs in.

As for today, SPC did take away the SLIGHT risk in the Kansas area due to a large cap in place. However, any storms that can break the cap will likely go severe, even as hail and wind may be about the only threat. No one down here will be heard uttering tornado, I would imagine. CAPE values along the dryline are forecasted to be about 2000J/kg with shear values at 35knts. Not the greatest of chances, but something there for a storm that may bust the cap.

Guess we'll see.. will play around here and see what (if anything) pops, and if not, hibernate away tonight in hopes of better luck tomorrow.

 

[Jay McCoy]

Looks like I get to play the home area chase today. The cloud shield that was expected is still to the west/southwest allowing max heating in the panhandle. The dryline is not pushing as far east as forecast so the central panhandle is now in it. The SPC finally caught on and threw in a slight for this area. Will sit around waiting for something to happen if it does.

 

[Shane Adams]

Jay pretty much beat me to the punch. I too was going to comment on SPC's sudden optimism (relatively speaking) regarding the lack of expected cloud coverage over the TX pan region. However, the drive is now an hour further away, the risk is still slight, but more-to-the-point, the chance for tornadic love is anorexic-slim. Dewpoint depressions of 25-30 with the shallow moisture isn't a great recipe for spinning convective tubes of joy.

There will of course be that lone, discrete cell that pops up that will have everyone going "damn" but I'm not betting it'll be tornadic. Been a strange year to this point; not so much because of a lack of tornadoes but a lack of chaseable days period. We're smack dab in the middle of April and we've hardly had anything to even go after. Two of my three chases this year were jokes. Looks like this could be an all-time low April for me, as far as chases in general

Kevin's comments don't sit well with me either; he mentiond maybe Thursday is salvagable....I was kinda hoping for Tuesday. But we'll see. Just a blah pattern that can't seem to get the moisture thing right....very frustrating. Hate to be the harbringer of doom here, but for all practical purposes, minus March 27 this is looking like a 1988 to this point.

Where are the chaseable systems????