4/17/04 FCST:PLAINS

Originally posted by rdewey
Jeff...Those are some very impressive soundings, sure spell out supercell pretty nicely! Too bad you didn't save a hodograph.

Robert
Click to expand...

Yeah, I was going to save the hodos, but forgot. If I recall correctly, the western-OK sounding had only decent low-level shear as represented in the hodograph. The hodographs from ICT and END, however, looked pretty good, though.

Jeff
 
The rule on images is under review -- you may ignore it at present, and we may formally back down on this since there has been excellent use of graphics so far.

Our main concern for this has been that nowcasts don't take 5 minutes to load for people on mobile Internet out in the field and to discourage posting of SPC images that are readily available on SPC's site. If anyone has suggestions on how we can amend this your input would be valuable.

Tim
 
Well... the latest ETA run is considerably different from previous runs... Mainly in regards to CAPE forecasts... now +3500 j/kg in northern KS, down to +2500-3000 CAPE down through nw OK. The 500mb jet streak is yet again farther west than previous forecasts, but shear profiles still appear adequate for decent supercells and a tornado risk... IF the cap can be broken. Because the main trough is so far west of the area, there will be very little upper support for any convection. Therefore, the only real trigger we may have is the dryline... And we all know how 'finicky' the dryline can be! I'm getting more and more optimistic by the model-run. It'll rpobably be a "boom-or-bust" type of day. Granted, deep-layer shear is particularly good, but adequate enough. C'mon baby!
 
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
Oh for those who are interested, I pulled off some ETA Point Forecast Soundings for Saturday late afternoon while at work today... The thermodynamic environment, for the most part, is very nice...
Click to expand...

Where do you get those soundings from?
 
Originally posted by Scott Roberts+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Scott Roberts)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-Jeff Snyder
Click to expand...
Oh for those who are interested, I pulled off some ETA Point Forecast Soundings for Saturday late afternoon while at work today... The thermodynamic environment, for the most part, is very nice...
Click to expand...

Where do you get those soundings from?[/b]
Click to expand...

Scott,
Those particular soundings were done on NSharp, part of NTL, on an NAwips machine. It's an awesome program.

Moving on... The latest 12Z ETA is, well, blah. While it's encouraging to see =>60 tds across most of OK at this hour (10am), the ETA seems to have cooled the low-levels and warmed the mid-levels on Saturday (on Sunday, for that matter). As the trough continues to slow down (run-to-run), associated mid-level cooling is being pushed farther and father west, away from central/western OK and central KS. Right now, it's looking more like a very strong cap that is looking less and less like it's going to break...

Jeff
Jeff
 
After an agonizing 48 hours, I've decided to stay home for Saturday.

This morning's soundings indiciate only a shallow moist layer working into the southern and central plains. With a strong cap getting stronger under a southwestly 850 and the addtional diffusion of the moisture from mixing, I don't have enough confidence to make the drive out for Saturday. I was targetting south central Kansas and still think that area has some potential, but not enough for the time and money such a trip involves from Indiana. As for Iowa, I never bought into the idea of sufficient moisture depth there by Saturday and I still don't.

If tomorrow's soundings aren't substantially better, I'll write off Sunday too. I'd feel differently if I lived closer. Man, I can't WAIT to live only 5 hours from ICT again! Once I get back, I'll never complain about driving to Kansas targets from Texas ---LOL!

Good luck to everybody chasing this weekend.
 
I'm still bouncing back and forth between whether or not to make the trip. If I decide to go, I'm likely to target Central/North Central Kansas because it is a few short hours away. As it stands now, I'd probably hang around the Salina area early in the day and see what fires where. That allows me options west (Hays), east (Topeka), north (Lincoln), and south (Wichita). May jet out late this evening and stay overnight someplace close by and pull up some morning data to give me a better idea what to shoot for. Things are still way unsure at this point, but I think Iowa is going to stretch the limits of my time and money, so I'd feel much better sticking close. Kansas works well. With SPC's morning 2 Day Outlook, they run a narrow slot of 15% Probs through Central Kansas.. although the odds are better in Iowa, I think I am going to gamble in Kansas.. that's my synopsis as of now.. will wait for another couple runs before making a final decision.
 
Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
http://www.wxcaster.com/modelskewt.php3?mo...STATIONID=72548

Then click on eta in upper left corner.....that is for Waterloo IA at 21z Sat.
Click to expand...

Good grief - nice wind environment ... look at those parameters. Please let there be deep moisture ...

Supercell pct: 100.0
SWEAT: 565.8
CAPE: 3579.3
LCL hgt: 1144.3
LFC hgt: 1593.5
Storm Dir/Speed: 258@20kts (oh please be true)

I almost wish I wouldn't have looked at that - - I'm sure I'll have a nervous breakdown by 1630z tomorrow as I realize that everything has begun looking like poop. Still wondering about the cap and CINH as well.
 
As for the real world and the moisture. Umm.... http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/oax.gif That should show you exactly how much those sfc TDs mean right now. That is for Omaha.

I'm hoping the Waterloo forecast sounding becomes reality. I'd say I believe in that deep moisture happening...ooh......5%...lol....but i'm 100% full of hope somehow it will. Looking around the plains right now says no way. But, that is not to say less then that can't be fun too!

I put this in both 4-17 threads, but for whatever reason it didn't copy over to this one when I did that forecast sounding.

MIke

An even cooler looking hodo.... http://www.wxcaster.com/modelskewt.php3?mo...STATIONID=72650 Spencer IA 0z Sun
 
Thank you both for keeping my head on the ground. That sounding from OAX is just rough. If moisture-temperature were any further apart at 800mb they'd have to make a separate diagram. This could easily go either way - may need to stay up late tonight and watch.

And Chris, if we end up with emotional scars, at least we can all share. I hear that therapy helps. We can always add this to the list along with the '01 KS high risk bust to console ourselves with.

The hodo on Sunday still looks interesting, but not sure about better - apart from moisture, which significantly improves. Looks like more cap and inhibition, and slightly faster storms ... still perfectly do-able.
 
You can all post graphics if you need to... just try to minimize it, especially toward the nowcasting timeframe tomorrow when people are on mobile connections. We decided to prohibit only these graphics: Images consisting of SPC outlook and watch box products in FCST or NOW threads. Chasers are already looking at these and know how to get them.

Tim
 
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