4/17/04 FCST:PLAINS

[Amos Magliocco]

I'm opening this because this Forum has an eerie track record for picking the dates of deep moist convection well in advance. So this is for forecast discussions, and luck. Yes, luck. Do you feel lucky?

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

All but one ensemble member from this morning's 00Z GFS run brings the strong mid/upper flow into the southwest next weekend, so there is reason to think the pattern change we have been waiting for may develop. We will need a few days for the Gulf to recover from the current cold intrusion, and hopefully the system will move slowly enough to give tropical air time to move north in advance of the big system.

 

[Joe Smith]

996 low in eastern Nebraska according to GFS. Temps progged to be in low 70's for me here on the In. Illinois border. Looks like next weekend might hold something in store for the Midwest as well as the Plains. Warmup is to begin in earnest here Wednesday so hopefully the gulf will have time to open up for good return flow. Things have been really quiet here in my area this season.

 

[Dan Cook]

DVN's early forecast for that period shows a chance of thunderstorms. GFS shows DP should be in the range 55-60, maybe higher as the day gets closer.

 

[Michael Shively]

Well I guess it is still to early at this point to speculate but I have a gut feeling that it may be a good day....( the 17th IS my b-day after all)

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

Dont knwo if this is a good thing or not but I had a dream about two weeks ago of an F3 tornado striking Wichita Falls. Large elephant trunck shape that touches down at the intersection of Seymour Hwy & Fairway near the KFDX TV-3 station and the traverses accross a few open fields & then accross loop 11 then kinda down Iowa Park rd and dissipates before it gets to Sheppard AFB. Also in my dream the event occurs on the 17th and I am film,ing the twister from the Kell Blvd & Fairway overpass on top of it with my chase partner. BTW I checked and my chase partenr has the day off Saturday.......Its also one week after the 25th aniversary of the Red River Terrible Tuesday event next week. Of course since I said all this it wont happen .

 

[Melissa Moon]

It's too soon to trust anything really right now for sure, BUT I do have my faith in Saturday. Wanna know why? It's cause the GEOL class at OU is having their second field trip, and that class is full of met majors. It never fails! Their first one was on March 27th and I think both days last year turned out to be good days (I forget what days). Ha! I'm so superstitious .

But being realistic, I'll hold my true opinion about this weekend for later on in the week when we can count on more than just how the butterfly flaps its wings.

 

[George Tincher]

Re: 4/17/2004 FCSTLAINS

Originally posted by Amos Magliocco
Do you feel lucky?

LOL! I can't read that without thinking of the classic line from "Dirty Harry" as Clint Eastwood stands over a wounded bank robber, who is contemplating going for his own gun. "I know what you are thinking. Did he fire all 6 shots or only 5. To tell you the truth, I kind of forgot myself in all this excitement. But being this is a .44 magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world and would blow your head clean off, you've gotta ask yourself one question. Do I feel lucky? Well do ya punk?"

Ok, now after taking a trip down movie memory lane, I'll attempt to address the real topic. Hehe. Based upon what I've seen, I think next weekend has promise too. It's far to early to say with any certainty what exactly will happen, but I think it's safe to say that at least there will be a system on it's way. And what's even better is that it appears there may be more than one in the not too distant future. Hopefully this rather stagnant and boring pattern we've been in comes to an end next weekend. I think it may. And with that the gates into a very active period may be opened. Again, it's too early to get overly excited, but being the optimist I am, I think there's a good chance for some action. However, I am only willing to say that it will be somewhere between the Rockies and East Coast at this time! That's about as far out on a limb as I am willing to go as of right now.

-George

 

[Mike Peregrine]

GFS - or whatever the heck they're calling it these days - 96 hr. shows precip nearing SE CO and TX panhandle - 108 shows it over the plains and 120 progresses over NW MO/IA. Looks like there will be some sort of response to low pressure developing alright. Crossing fingers -

Yesterday at spotter training in Lawrence, the wcm from Pleasant Hill said ... "so how many of you are already aware that next weekend might be interesting?" - you know we're stretching looking this far ahead, but I feel lucky.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Looks like a the threat for severe weather exists over a wide area late in this up coming week/weekend, from the southern plains into the midwest. If anything else, it will be getting warmer across these areas with temps climbing into the upper 70's as far east as the Great Lakes.

Latest 12Z GFS is also interesting by 180HR showing strong lee-side cyclogenesis (989MB) in the Plains, but thats over a week away, so no telling what will really happen...

Robert

 

[Joel Wright]

The system seems to be getting pushed back again. Right now it looks as if southeast Nebraska down into eastern KS and OK may have a lot of fun Sunday. Temps could be pushing 80 with some nicely veering winds aloft. I'm a little pessimistic about low level moisture return however. I'm also a little worried about the system becoming negatively tilted the more the models may slow it down. Oh well, at least it's something to watch. I know I'll personally enjoy the nice warmup even if the storms don't materialize.. 8)

 

[Blake Naftel]

Stay out of Iowa... very bad!!!

I'll get more serious as to this discussion when the system is 48hrs. out; but for now as per the new GFS, it's looking like a chainsaw chase to northern Wisconsin (off limits for me).

..Blake..

 

[Scott Roberts]

This ain't quite scientific, but...

I'll throw my hat in with an active upcoming weekend, even without looking at any of this morning's model runs.

Why? The amount of chatter about it among the "weather community." As those of you who were at the Severe Weather conference in Norman early last month may remember, the statement was made several times about the May, 2003 outbreak that "we knew this was coming almost a week out." I distinctly remember the level of chatter about upcoming storms increasing before both the May 2003 and May 1999 events.

My first clue was when the "weather geek" of the station's meteorological staff e-mailed me and the station's primary chaser Sunday with a heads-up for possible severe wx next weekend. The word "severe" doesn't fall out of his mouth unless he's fairly certain. Then I look at the ICT HWO, and they're talking the possibility of severe Sat through Monday. The discussion is even more explict, describing a round on Saturday and a triple point developing in the area on Sunday.

Then I log on here to start a thread about the upcoming weekend, and find it's already been started! Already, five to six days out, we have convergence developing

This morning, I fully expect to find all the discussions in the area looking at the severe threat for the weekend. I won't be terribly disappointed if it's all fallen apart -- after all, this is April, but it's also time for the southern jet stream to shift back north, and that is typically an unsettled time.

Other unscientific indicators: we had a dip below freezing this weekend. When the winter pattern makes an appearance in Wichita the second weekend of April, I've noticed a tendency for the storm season to start fairly soon thereafter.

Those who are looking at chasing in this area this weekend, please do me a favor...drop by my web page, http://www.ksstorm.info/about.html and send me an e-mail. I'd like to talk with you about phone reports and possible video ;-)

Now, off to find some shred of scientific backing for my gut instinct reaction to the early chaser convergence :lol:


Scott
(Chase Coordinator, KWCH TV 12, Wichita)

 

[Amos Magliocco]

A group of us stayed up late to watch the GFS roll in--dorkiness only true chasers could understand. And while the 0Z wasn't quite as perfect as the earlier run, it's still depicts a powerful system crashing into a juiced boundary layer on Saturday. The potential for severe weather, based on last night's run, looks good from northwest Texas through southwestern KS. Ensembles concur for the most part.

I'll open a second forecast topic for Sunday the 18th, since this looks like a 2 day show.

 

[Eric B'Hymer]

I have been looking forward to a servere weather event when i am not working. Fortunately i have sat-tues off and i will be watching the models the rest of the week and getting my equipment ready. If there is anyone from Missouri or eastern kansas that wants to tag along and share expenses give me an email. It is in my profile. Hope to see evryone out this weekend.