Chris C Sanner
EF5
Congrats on the baby Michael!
0z NAM is out, and I'm going staying firm with my backyard as the chase target. I think, depending on when things go off, I may have to go west some to get the convection, which I do not mind at all
. Things are coming together nicely, and I think the Red River will be the spot to play come Sunday if the 0z name is to be believed (so I'm not that confident
). Capes are 1500+, LIs are maxed here at -6, and, with a deviant storm motion, you could get some pretty impressive shear numbers here. The only concern is the cap, and how strong it will be. Right now, at 18z the Cap is anywhere between 2.8 at PVJ to 1.8 at DUC to 2.2 at SPS on forecasted soundings, so things look like they may be able to stay discrete for a little while at least on Sunday, but by 0z, things are eroded pretty well across the entire region. So if a storm or two develops around 2ish in the afternoon along the dryline, I'm fairly confident it will stand a good chance of producing before things probably squall out later on in the afternoon or evening. Gonna be interesting to see how it pans out at the very least..
0z NAM is out, and I'm going staying firm with my backyard as the chase target. I think, depending on when things go off, I may have to go west some to get the convection, which I do not mind at all