4/10/05 FCST: Southern/Central Plains

[Mikel Shively]

This is my outlook for Missouri on Sunday : www.nomochase.com/calendar.html


I believe that this system will move further south leaving Missouri in only a general (less than 10%) chance for severe weather. We will see if my forecast will pan out with further model runs, however this is my best guess for sunday.

 

[Shane Adams]

I'm excited about Sunday because....well, I'm a chaser. When you're a chaser and it's Spring, you chase. If this setup mirros the past few, I'm going to the LOW. I said Tuesday night after another "juice failure" (targeting SE of LOW in the best theta e) that I would not ignore another LOW on a cold core day. So if Sunday becomes a CC chase, to the LOW I will go.

One side note, gonna be some disappointed people on here if May is dead. Our fifth month isn't immune to chaser disappointment. One would be wise to snag any chase opportunity that comes their way, given they have the ways/means.

 

[Jay McCoy]

You said it Shane. I am not a "Tornado" chaser.. I am a STORM chaser. If there are chasable storms then I am going. The dewpoints arent in the 70's... so what, its April.. The temp will barely get out of the 70's. You chase. Ofcourse this isnt a may style setup.. well news flash.... it ISNT May. So what do we do... we chase..

Thats what sets guys like us apart from people who wait for the "perfect" setup in the perfect location in the perfect month. I like those too but I chase when there are storms.. period

As for this setup.. I will look for central Oklahoma unless it is a CC then I will do as shane and head towards the low which should be near SW Ks to NW Tx panhandle

 

[Billy Griffin]

Amen! I'm not sure why everyone is in such a "panic" over it being slow. We've all seen this before. We're just stuck in a slow pattern right now, and to be quite honest, I don't recall very many 70 degree dewpoint days in March or early April... heck, the trees aren't even out yet.

It's those dull-drum days of Winter that have us all down, but chin up mates! You can bet there'll be some awesome days this year, and no one can really predict what later this month or May, or heck, even June on into July will bring.

If I recall, 1998 was a slow-start year but the chase season lasted well into June and July even in Oklahoma. Perhaps it's just one of those years where everything's a little later. (so much for the Global Warming theory) :lol:

So, relax. If you wanna chase, chase. If not, save the gas money. My gut feelings are that Karen is right on the pattern being slow until May, but... that doesn't mean that I will be holding off chasing until then. If it's going to storm, I will go out. Photogenic storms and simply enjoying Mother Nature's show is what it's all about for me. Hey, think of it this way, you can't win the lottery if you don't play, right? :wink:

I'll close with this however... I'm sitting here in Denver ready to depart back home tomorrow morning. The locals here (forecasters) are calling for this storm to appear much stronger than the last... so... looks like we could have a good CC system, and if we're lucky enough to get our DPs up to ~ 60 in Oklahoma, the system could be more reflective of March 21st instead of this past one.

 

[nickgrillo]

Here is my latest outlook graphic for Sunday:

http://midwestchase.com/wxforecasts/04_10_05-2.gif
NAM shows the surface low sitting near Dodge City, with CAPEs >1500j/kg across most of central/eastern KS -- with considerable instability all the way into IA (supported by substantial low-level moisture. I'm thinking about chasing, but not too sure if I'll be able to make it out.

Target Area #1: Eastern Kansas
Target Area #2: Central Illinois

:lol:

..Nick..

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Looks quite a bit like the last setup to my eyes. The low is pretty much stacked... and that results in winds nearly unidirectional all the way up (except at the surface). This setup also has a moisture starved quality to it.
Will I play? If it is nearby... probably since I want to see storms, but I'm not expecting much... and if it sets up up farther away from OUN... it doesn't look enticing enough for me.

Aaron

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I'm liking the very similar area that I chased 3-21 and 4-5 -- along the Red River... I'm concerned about surface moisture north of I40, since the NAM is projecting the best (>60) Tds from along the Red River and southward by Sunday afternoon, with the >65 Tds not too far behind by 0z. In addition, the 500mb flow is relatively veered from the Red River southward, with west-southwesterly mid-level flow. This in turn results in deep-layer shear vectors that are almost normal to the dryline --> http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA_250M-...VECTOR_60HR.gif
It is also this mid-level flow is will keep me from chasing the warm sector in northern OK and into KS. That said, the more backed low-level flow is confined to OK and KS, so I don't want to go too far into TX.

Instability isn't that great courtesy of widespread low cloud-cover during the day, as well as limited moisture. This limited moisture also means relatively high CINH. The models didn't really perform well with initiation this past Tuesday, so I'm not sure what to make of the lack of precip before 0z that the NAM is showing.

At any rate, my preliminary starting target attm is Waurika, OK.

 

[Tony Laubach]

As I said last time this setup arose, I'm going to play the low. This setup does have a rung of the previous on from Tuesday with it, so I think its safe to say playing the low wouldn't be such a bad idea. Wind fields elsewhere seem to show potential for yet another massive squall line with embedded tornatic storms, but because I'd be leaving so early on Sunday, I'm not sure I would make the trip in time to catch the stuff in the far east. That almost leaves me no choice but to play the low.

The ETA is showing a small axis of theta-E diving over the low back into the DDC area with values near 300 at 0z Monday. SBCAPE values about the time aren't great in the same areas, as a small area of between 2000-2500J/kg sits to the west, southwest of Wichita. At 18Z, the CAPE is highest northeast of DDC, nearing 1500J/kg. 3km and 1km SRH values aren't all too shabby in those areas between 18z Sun and 0z Mon. In fact, the 60 hour 0z ETA run of 1km SRH has a bulls-eye of about 400 in West Central KS a bit southeast of Oakley. There is some CIHN at 18z which is pretty much cleared out by 0z. Moisture still isn't too impressive, but the ETA does have moisture wrapping around the backside of the low throughout the run in that time frame. TDs of 50+ are forecasted in the area as the low slowly moves eastward. LIs are in the 04 range about that time as well.

Based upon that, I would say my target for Sunday would likely be someplace between Scott City and Ness city on K-96; probably the Dighton area to be exact for major highways running in all directions.

This will be up for refinement later on today and throughout the day tomorrow, but I'm gonna make it a point to stick out the low and take my chances hard core and cold core!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I agree it is fairly stacked but I don't think it is quite as stacked as the last couple systems. ETA has the center of the 300mb low over the TX/NM border with the sfc low in nw OK at 0z. The area around and west of ICT before 0z shouldn't have a terrible shear profile. At 0z in sc KS I can see almost sw at 300mb, s at 500mb, sse(perhaps se) at 850mb, with close to se(could easily be ese by Sun) at the sfc. That was hard to find with the last couple systems. Target: Sitka or bust! Too bad moisture wasn't so concerning yet again or perhaps it'd be worth the drive from here. As I see it right now I won't be there.

 

[Dan Dawson]

My biggest concern with Sunday is, as some have already mentioned, the rather unidirectional and backed nature to the winds above the surface. However, this is compensated for somewhat by the surface winds being forecasted to be rather backed (southeasterly in the warm sector). Looking at the 12Z Eta (I refuse to call it the NAM unless forced at gunpoint) , however, the best backed surface winds now appear to be a tad further east, into central/eastern OK by 0Z Monday, in contrast to previous runs. I'm not worried about moisture however. Upper-level temps should be rather cool, increasing lapse rates and the CAPE. As of now, I'm blocking of Sunday for chasing.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Like some of you I'm planning on heading for the low in southwest/central Kansas area. With the strength of the upper forcing I am bit concerned about storms firing before the deep moisture can make it that far north. Am also concerned about the surface dewpoints. But as long as mid-upper 50's are present, the -17C 500mb temps will be plenty cold to support CAPE between 1500-200 j/kg.

Given the southeast to south-southeast surface and 850mb winds, along with ample speed shear, the shear will be fine for supercells, some tornadic. Especiall near and east of the surface low.

I think Sunday is gonna be huge!

 

[Mike Umscheid]

There are some similarities to last system, but also a few differences that MIke H pointed out... looks like a good theta-E axis nosing northwest towards the sfc low center across southwest KS by 18-21z... 700mb temps quite cool once again, so I'd expect storms to develop prior to 21z in good sfc-based cape air.... which argues a target between DDC and P28 somewhere.... Tony Laubach's target looks reasonable, there will likely be very high ambient near surface vertical vorticity along with modest surface based cape, but the air just on the other side of the boundary looks colder this time... it may be snowing very near the colorado-kansas border by late afternoon... so the Dighton play looks messier than any other possibilities to me.. That's my initial thoughts...

Target: my backyard. Funny, I get to drive TO home for a chase target, instead of AWAY from home.. will be in Lawrence, KS saturday..

Mike U

 

[Justin Walker]

Target: my backyard. Funny, I get to drive TO home for a chase target, instead of AWAY from home.. will be in Lawrence, KS saturday..

Mike U

I am in agreement with Mike and many of you. Playing the Low seems to be the best bet for know. SBCape of 2500, LI's -6, and Shear looks good enough to support discrete cells initially. Along the dryline and south the low level winds will be veering. This burnt me on the 5th. I don't know about being Huge as Jim says....but this certainly has some potential for a moisture starved system.
Target Area will be around the Pratt vicinity

 

[Chris C Sanner]

Right now, being located in Southern Oklahoma, I am planning on playing the dryline along the Red River as Jeff S mentioned earlier. I really think that if we get some discrete activity that the best best for stronger tornadoes will be along the Red River. Right now, if gas was not so high, I would probably be contemplating the more likely spot well to my NW, but alas, gas is high and I'd only have to walk 50 feet to my target area outside of my back door right now, so I'm sticking with S. Oklahoma. I'm liking the forecasted soundings in SE/EC Oklahoma, and LCLs are MUCH lower forecasted than this past week and the 21st of March, so that gives me hope that if things are discrete, there will be some amazing supercells along the dryline. Tulsa HWO mentions the following:

LATEST LOCALLY DEVELOPED GRIDDED DATA... (MCGAVOCK GRIDS) ...SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD EVENT PRODUCING SUPERCELL STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AFTER 3 PM SUNDAY...AND LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

 

[Mikel Shively]

If I were to chase on Sunday, At this point I would chose a target in extreme Southeast Kansas, closer to the LOW. Seems like the vorticity in that area is really good. I don't know, I cant really put a finger on it, but something in my gut makes me think that this is going to be a good system, better than the last two, I could be wrong, I guess we will see. Unfortuately, I have to stay VERY close to home as my wife is VERY pregnant and will have another baby here any day! (due 4/12/05) So to those of you who do chase, stay close to the low and happy hunting