Chris Carter
EF3
I maybe reading it wrong, but it looks like the 00Z GFS run has shifted back to the south, maybe a little too far south keeping the heaviest QPF in central KS now.
-
After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.
I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.
For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.
From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.
Sincerely, Jeff D.
3/7-3/8 Central Plains Storm
- Thread starter Justin McGinley
- Start date
jshields
quite a bit of changes today, especially with forecast temps being warmer than originally being forecast for most areas. the problem is the storm doesn't tap into any real cold air. the cold air up in north dakota and further north never really gets pulled down into the system. the winds are out of the south up in north dakota and into canada for almost the entire time as the storm passes by to the south in the central plains. qpf has come down quite a bit as well. the 0Z GFS doesn't show any amounts over 8-10" and thats only in north central nebraska where part of that falls in tomorrows first wave. that first wave dramatically weakens by the time it makes it to eastern nebraska and iowa too. a day or two ago the NAM was showing almost an inch of qpf on monday alone here in Omaha, now it's at .17"! here's the 0Z GFS showing much lower snow amounts overall, and less down in kansas and over iowa, minnesota, and wisconsin.
RMacDonald
Hey guys, just looking at my latest guidance still tracking NC Kansas with the greatest potential for snowfall is in the Hill City, KS area. Seeing snowfall rates of up to 2" per hour around the 18Z time frame, this looks like the heaviest periods of snow. Also add to that a bit of wind up to 20-25 knots, will see some reduced visibility with blowing snow. Uploaded city specific forecast for that area. Any thought on the snow and track of the Low.
Justin McGinley
EF1
Well here is an update from the NWS office in Hastings Nebraska.
What does anyone else think?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
916 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011
.UPDATE...THE FREEZING PCPN HAS EXPANDED TO OUR REMAINING SE CWA
AND HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXPANDED
THE TIME UNTIL 3 AM...WHEN WINTER STORM WARNING IS SET TO BEGIN.
OF INTEREST FOR THIS EVENT IS THE 00Z NAM IS BACKING OFF ON SNOW
AMOUNTS AND WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE GFS DOES WITH THE
SYSTEM.
What does anyone else think?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
916 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011
.UPDATE...THE FREEZING PCPN HAS EXPANDED TO OUR REMAINING SE CWA
AND HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXPANDED
THE TIME UNTIL 3 AM...WHEN WINTER STORM WARNING IS SET TO BEGIN.
OF INTEREST FOR THIS EVENT IS THE 00Z NAM IS BACKING OFF ON SNOW
AMOUNTS AND WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE GFS DOES WITH THE
SYSTEM.
Chris Carter
EF3
Surface temps are just too high over east central nebraska to see that kind of snow totals. I think its more prudent with the 2 - 4" totals with pushing 6" to the north and west. Its been snowing with some rain mixed in for the past 5 hours here in Bellevue, but its melting even on the grassy surfaces. Its probably going to take a moderate snow band to actually start some accumulating snows which won't take place until late afternoon Tuesday anyway.
Chris Carter
EF3
Yea they trimmed the snow totals over most eastern Nebraska to around 2" and most of it will be on grassy areas. Good note is that I won't have to shovel anything and we get back into the 50's by Friday. Spring snowstorms can be so complicated.
Given current surface pressure tendencies it looks like this system may end up going WAYYY south of where it previously was forecast. I'll keep an eye on it but I wouldn't be surprised to see it take a track across C AR through W/NW TN into W KY and then S IN. Wayyyyyy south.
John Farley
Supporter
This isn't from the Plains, but since it is the same storm system I thought it made more sense to post here rather than start a new thread. Before it moved out onto the Plains, this system produced a series of intense convective bursts of snow in northern New Mexico, especially over the mountains. Accumulations reached 6 inches in various places in the northern mountains, 4 inches in west-central NM, and an inch or two in parts of the northern Rio Grande Valley. A few pictures I took yesterday and today in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains:
Band of convective snowshowers, some with thunder, looking northwest from the Santa Fe Ski area. The cell that produced the snow pictured below was near the tail end of this line, but did not look nearly as impressive as this part of the line at the time I took this picture.
A burst of snow that produced about an inch of snow between 3:00 and 3:50 p.m. on March 7 at the ski area. About 3 minutes after taking this picture, I heard a rumble of thunder.
Additional snowshowers overnight brought the storm total to 6 inches at the ski area. I took this picture the morning of the 8th near the 12,000 foot level. The combination of rime and snow on the trees, the snowdrifts, and the clouds/fog (cloud bases well below the top of the mountain) made for an other-worldly scene.
Hopefully, I will eventually get around to posting more pictures and discussion on my Web site, but thought I would put this up for now.
Band of convective snowshowers, some with thunder, looking northwest from the Santa Fe Ski area. The cell that produced the snow pictured below was near the tail end of this line, but did not look nearly as impressive as this part of the line at the time I took this picture.
A burst of snow that produced about an inch of snow between 3:00 and 3:50 p.m. on March 7 at the ski area. About 3 minutes after taking this picture, I heard a rumble of thunder.
Additional snowshowers overnight brought the storm total to 6 inches at the ski area. I took this picture the morning of the 8th near the 12,000 foot level. The combination of rime and snow on the trees, the snowdrifts, and the clouds/fog (cloud bases well below the top of the mountain) made for an other-worldly scene.
Hopefully, I will eventually get around to posting more pictures and discussion on my Web site, but thought I would put this up for now.
