3/28/09 FCST: NC, SC, TN, GA, AL, MS, FL

[dmckemy]

It looks like there is a good chance of seeing some severe weather in the SE once again. The models have been a little inconsistent in the timing of this feature (yesterday, the GFS had the front already passing through Raleigh, NC, by 18z on Saturday, but has since slowed it down), but I'm really liking the setup. It appears there will be enough moisture, shear, and instability to spark off severe storms, and since it's the weekend, I definitly plan on chasing anything that comes up!

 

[John Cameron]

does anyone see cause to add north Texas to this forecast discussion?

 

[dmckemy]

Feel free to add/remove states as needed; I know the model runs have changed, so some areas may not even be covered anymore for Saturday. On a side note, it looks like Friday (3/27) could be a significant severe wx outbreak in the TN valley and central gulf states, so perhaps someone could start a thread on that as well....

 

[beaudodson]

0z NAM is a powerhouse storm for Friday night into Saturday. Slow moving low pressure area over AR and tracking east/northeast into IL/KY/IN. NAM spikes one area of CAPE over KY and TN. Would not be surprised to see a rather large moderate risk on Saturday. Tough call this far out, though. NOWCASTING on Saturday will be interesting. If some supercells can form near the triple point and along the warm front then I would say some tornadoes are possible somewhere in the KY/TN area. More severe weather further south, as well.

Upper levels on the NAM are just amazing - well organized 850/700/500 mb low. With a large area of heavy snow over portions of OK/KS/MO. Likely an historic event for those areas.

 

[Eddie Natenberg]

I think N. KY / SW OH is a bullseye if the BL can stay coupled during the night. Juicy air with strong pressures fall. Now to wait and see.

 

[Angie Norris]

Classic severe weather setup for the southeast. Strong upper level jet, pronouced warm sector, strong shear...things could be quite interesting tomorrow.

I'm seeing two distinct areas here...

First, Alabama and Georgia look to be under a negatively tilted trough and the exit region of the 500mb jet. The cold front will also be a focus for enhanced lift. I'd be looking at this area for the best chance of tornadoes.

Second, I'm seeing a squall line blast through the TN valley in the overnight period (6Z to 12Z) as the cold front and upper level support combine to produce the typical nocturnal severe weather.

The main negative with this setup is the possibility of persistant cloud cover and ongoing precip limiting instability.

Good luck to the southeast chasers tomorrow...I'd love to be out there with y'all!

 

[Eric Graham]

Sitting here in Elizabethtown, Ky at the Hampton Inn waiting for storms to fire. New Tornado watch off to my west till 9pm this evening. Mostions will be 25-30mph. looking for any local chasers who want to join me can meet me at the Hampton Inn in Elizabethtown. Good luck to all who go out.

 

[Dave Gallaher]

TOR watch #91 just popped up, covering western Kentucky, west-central Tennessee and north Alabama. We have intermittent sunshine in HSV and the moisture feels a little less present than earlier in the day. A dryline of sorts appears to be right on the AL/MS border, with tds at 50 in MS, and up to 63 just 50 or so miles away in AL, and the shear looks good with somewhat backed winds at surface, moreso here in AL than in the watch area in TN or KY at the moment. I'll be standing by on this one, but radar in AL is blank at the moment, while the first line of cells is firing nicely south of Paducah.

 

[Dave Gallaher]

The cell just west of Benton, KY is showing weak rotation. More important, it's moving NNE at about 36 knots, slower than I'd have expected.

EDIT: Nice appendage forming and 3/4 inch hail indicator, but it may be merging with the storms to its north.