3/24/07 FCST: KS/OK/TX Pan

[Patrick Martin]

Now that my coffee has started to kick in, am still very optimistic for today. Was initially very concerned about the current precip in W KS, but as the low moves newd and opens up, there should be a sufficient clear slot working in to get some clearing and decent heating during the afternoon. Already starting to see this happen in the area over E NM. I'll be leaving the house approx 7am MT and still targeting the area from Hill City to Phillipsburg.

Good luck and safe travels to everyone out chasing today.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

Charles Edwards and I are in Salina and we're rough and ready to barrel west in hopes we'll have the same luck that several had yesterday (congrats to all who scored!) I have some concerns chiefly with all the cloud cover greatly limiting cape values. Models suggest the surface low may deepen a little as it moves into western Neb. Shear still looks very good especially over the I-80 corridor near and west of Lexington, NE.

Despite the cloud cover, strong rising motion as vortmax moves out should help out but what I expect to see will be small but vigourous supercells imbedded in area's of rain and even fog. Area's closest to drypunch may have best chance of seeing something visible, but otherwise I'm thinking that anything tornadic maybe imbedded. This will be a challenging chase with a big bust potential but could be rewarding, especially if Charles and I have the luck that we did last month. I'll be suggesting that we head north out of Russell and get up toward the Lexington/Kearney Neb. area to get situated by 21Z

Be safe!

Rocky's Cell phone: 405-226-2996
Charles: 405-323-1145

 

[Verne Carlson]

Michael, Eric and I are at the motel in Colby, KS doing a late checkout and keeping wifi.

To our southwest we've been watching a rapidly approaching clearing of the cloud deck. On visible satellite there is widespread clearing in the TX/OK panhandles advecting this way.

We can see blue sky now to our southwest, looks like we may just get the heating we need for today's instability.

 

[matt patterson]

Looking more towards a southern target due to low confidence in instability recovering. 12z data showing a nice dry punch along KS/OK/NE TX pan region, coinciding w/ the right rear exit quadrant over running the DL. Will be looking for an impulse coming out of Mexico this morning to better refine a specific target. 12z WRF breaks 2 small areas of precip out across SW KS and NW OK in the vicinity of the dry punch. Also note worthy that this reduces my drive time by 3+ hrs. Good luck to all, and happy hunting.

 

[BrandonWhittington]

I again will me favoring southwest KS area, probally around Meade, KS.. Clouds here in the panhandles are eroding and ample heating will take place over the next several hours. The overnight MSC fell apart pretty fast and we are on a good recovery. Dew points are staying in the mid 50s throughout the area and winds are back out of the south east...Also, looking at surface obs, there appears to be some kind of surface low in eastern, NM. This feature I will be watching very closely, as it moves to the east-northeast. If skies continue to clear, CAPE values will be exceeding 1500 in the southwest KS and northwest OK...Good luck to all.

 

[bbarjenbruch]

These latest RUC forecast soundings bother me. Weak lapse rates, ample upper saturation (clouds), Narrow CAPE profiles. The one thing we've got going for us are the nice loopy hodographs. Shear won't be a problem, but I am leary of even going out when the RUC paints the low CAPE picture on a day like today.

Maybe I'm being a bit pessimistic, but gas isn't cheap. I think I'll have to think on it for a while before heading out...

 

[Caleb Kimbrough]

We are currently sitting at some ghetto motel in Phillipsburg using their internet. I think we are going stick with the Northern target and see what happens.

If anyone else is in the area feel free to give us a shout....pm me for my number.

Caleb

 

[Chris Wilburn]

Joey Ketcham and I stayed the the night in Smith Center. Heading towards your way right now Caleb. We are going to head to Phillipsburg and take it from there. We will most likely head just west and north of there and find a good internet connection. I don't particularly like the forecasted CAPE of 500 J/kg, but it is just a forecast so we will have to see. Plan is try and find the boundary/warm front and an area with better moisture and surface winds. Will be looking at the SPC Forecast Tools as a guide in what to look for today. Looks like we will head towards the nebr/kansas border as this appears to be where the front will set up today.

Chris

 

[Daniel Christianson]

YAWNS... here we go, im headed Westbound on I-80 towards Hastings or a little west yet. I might as well get an early start, but i at least got 4hrs of sleep in sigh", ( id be careful around that ghetto motel lol ) goodluck to everyone out.

 

[Caleb Kimbrough]

Chris....feel free to come and see us while your in town for a bit. If you're coming into town on 36 just keep going west through town and you'll see the Mark V hotel...we're on the west side of it. The have pretty fast internet too...

I think we'll probably head north a little ways to the KS/NE border as well, we'll see what happens in the next hour of so..

Caleb

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I'm sitting in Norton, KS at the DQ and skies are more clear here than in Phillipsburg where I just was. There are also good road options up here too. We, like everyone else will most likely move a bit north after some lunch. I think since there has been such an early clearing we are in good shape for severe wx with supercells and tornadoes.

 

[Darin Brunin]

Mike Shively and I are heading west on I70 working our way towards our target area.

I don't really know where to post this but wanted to let everyone know that I am going to be running my 'ChaseCam' for the first time today so if you want to follow along go to www.tornadolive.com/live.html.

Darin

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

McMullen and crew sitting here at the exit off Hastings/Grand Island ... concerned over the cold air advection wrapping around that low pressure center and generating the low level cloudiness filling in over southwestern Kansas ... thinking we'll just have to hit up whatever flies ... latest RUC model runs showing some great explosion over north central Kansas ... just have to target the areas looking dynamically right and make up for the possibility of lossed instability.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Most of the Colorado gang is sitting at our favorite place; The Oasis Truck Stop in Colby, KS. Sitting tight right now under sunny skies and a strong cu-field. Kind of sitting around wondering our next move and can't really narrow down anything that's better than where we are now. Thinking development to our south and west is possible, so we're not in a hurry to move east or north just yet.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Still sitting here in GI with the gang, somewhat interested in the parameters devloping in NE KS and SE NE. Although not sure if we want to leave this area yet, we have some small soft looking towers starting to develop, as the sun shine is allowing for some weak instability.