3/24/07 FCST: KS/OK/TX Pan

[matt patterson]

After looking at the past couple model runs that extend that far out (GFS,ECMWF) i think that we need to go ahead and throw saturday into the mix. THis looks like it will be the Finale of the week as the whole system opens up and ejects to the northeast... The GFS is painting a pretty picture with plenty of robust moisture and a lot of dynamics.. Its way too early to get much more specific but it is there looming on the horizon....

 

[Stan Rose]

Saturday now looks like a washout, and dynamics are lousy too since the system has not surprisingly slowed down considerably. Too bad, since it would have been my first chance to chase!

 

[Stan Rose]

Talk about the fickle models...now the 18z nam is bringing the upper low further west, and thermodynamics don't look half bad from the TX panhandle clear into SE CO. Guess ill wait til friday night before making any desicions on this one

 

[David Wolfson]

Here comes the impulse, such as it is, through the Woodward/Gage area. I'm virtually heading toward Wakita, OK, to see if anything manages to break the cap and slide my way.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

This is begining to look like it might be a pretty decent day. Appears the 12Z WRF was the odd man out as the 0Z is more like the 12Z GFS. It now indicates that the trough will move out a with a decent negative tilt. With decent moisture advecting all the way up to NE with a vast area of 60+ DP's. Appears a surface low will develop over W KS aiding in great backing all along the WF. SW flow of 60kts at 500mb with a South to SSE 35kt LLJ looks quite impressive looks like the model wants to pick up on a decent dryline buldge as well. I have yet to see the 0Z GFS but I think based on its 12Z solution and the new 0Z NAM/WRF the NE/KS boarder once agian looks like a decent area with everything focusing around the Phillipsburg KS area. They need to schedule this darn severe weather sympossium in like January.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

The only real problem I see on this one is the precip progs, which can obviously be wrong or less.

Here is a fcst sounding for McCook at 0z

I'd say that looks pretty darn decent. Note the 3km cape over 300. Storm motion around there would take things up and over the warmfront most likely. That could be a good thing if they can use it for a while. I'm sort of interested in a further east target as well but not as much so as the sw NE area. Storm motion maybe tend to be a bit more along the wf in c NE.

Hell 18z on Sunday looking pretty interesting too.

 

[Adam Atkins]

Wow I'm clearning my schedule for Saturday. I'm very optimistic about the potential severe weather outbreak from SW Nebraska through the panhandles. This has the look of a classic, fast moving, open shortwave with perfect timing for afternoon convection. Strong surface pressure falls will provide nicely backed low level flow and a strong low level jet is progged in the evening/overnight per 00z NAM. 60's Td's look good, mixing might not be a concern because moisture trajectories look optimal. Strong forcing might be the only one downfall I can see at this point due to strong pos. vorticity advection and divergence...and we don't want to see too many storms at once. Discrete dryline supercells look probable...I know I sound like a wishcaster right now but I haven't been chasing yet and it's time to knock the dust off the vid. camera.

 

[Caleb Kimbrough]

SPC extended the area of the slight risk just a little while ago...

Looks the like Tornado Junkies team will be out and about on Saturday...current target: Phillipsburg, KS.

Also, we have a free spot with us if anyone would like to tag along...

 

[Joey Ketcham]

Chris Wilburn and I will be keeping a close watch on this, we will be up in Lincoln Nebraska this evening and go from there.

 

[Stan Rose]

I think this ones a go for me. Im concerned about all the progged early precip, but after driving thousands of miles last season with lesser setups than this one, ive got no excuse not to chase this one. hopefully it will clear early and not eject too far east or north--id like to stay under 1000 miles

 

[Patrick Martin]

Looks the like Tornado Junkies team will be out and about on Saturday...current target: Phillipsburg, KS.

...

Like your target Caleb! Let's see, a sat. setup so no work interference, wife has plans all day, and somewhat close to home...can't pass this up for my first outing of 07. I'm liking the area between Hill City and Phillipsburg as it seems to be sitting on the nose of the dry slot/sharpening dryline. Now if we can just get some clearing in the afternoon...

 

[Stan Rose]

Like your target Caleb! Let's see, a sat. setup so no work interference, wife has plans all day, and somewhat close to home...can't pass this up for my first outing of 07. I'm liking the area between Hill City and Phillipsburg as it seems to be sitting on the nose of the dry slot/sharpening dryline. Now if we can just get some clearing in the afternoon...

I hear you, Patrick--the current wx is encouraging for tomorrow though, since those monster supercells down in NM and TX have remained quite isolated!

 

[Daniel Christianson]

Shouldn't the thread include S Nebraska?

 

[Mark Blue]

Shouldn't the thread include S Nebraska?

I second your motion. I think there could be quite a show going on in SW to SC Nebraska tomorrow.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

I bailed from the idea of heading to NM and TX.for today too bad, quite a show so instead...

Charles Edwards and I will be leaving shortly and basically pointing ourselves north.. we may end up in the HLC area for the night after we get some lightning photo's in. Tomorrow I'm hesitant to say there will be tornadoes for sure, but chances are definitely there. My chief concern is instability as I don't see much recovery from all the activity that will gradually push its way in the HLC direction overnight.. still with the main thrust of the 500mb. vortmax ejecting out into the central plains by late afternoon, and position of the jet creating good lift, we should'nt need much to get convective activity going by early to mid afternoon. Below I-70, capping may become more of an issue the further south you go. A combination of 300-350 m/s helicities, 1200-1500j/kg cape, near 60 dews projected between CNK and HLC on up to the Nebraska border may be good place to start. I may opt to situate myself possibly as far north as HSI as whatever developes in KS. will be moving 30-60deg. at aprox. 30-40kts.. toward us.

If we do get some clearing ahead of the dry punch still projected to enter the aformentioned areas, then this will be a day to remember. Cell phones will be on. Rocky: 405-226-2996 Charles Edwards: 405-323-1145

Rocky&family