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3/22/11 NOW: IA/NE/KS/MO
- Thread starter cwachal
- Start date
I highly doubt the storm in extreme S NE will go tornadic. It is a good 50 miles behind the front and has very little SBCAPE to work with. It also has very little low level shear. It is moving very quickly off to the east, however, and if it can manage to survive long enough to catch up to the advancing front, there's a chance it could become tornadic. However, I still think that is a very low chance (<2%), as there is simply next to no shear or helicity in that area. An elevated supercell, we will likely see, but it's highly unlikely we will see a surface based tornadic supercell out of that guy.
nickgrillo
EF5
Actually, the inflow sector is still pretty capped to surface-based air. RUC mesoanalysis shows >200j/kg of CINH using a mixed-layer parcel ascent and, associatively, LFC heights are quite high within much of the warm sector. That particular cell is most likely rooted well above the boundary layer. I don't have time to write much of a forecast, but I'd have to say southwest IA has the best shot at a productive tornadic supercell today.
Andrew Stoller
EF5
The cumulus along the cold front looks like it's breaching the cap in east central/north east KS, so hopefully that activity can get into IA where the better directional shear is, and organize.
Yea, that elevated storm in NE is way behind the cold front/dryline with northwesterly surface winds present.
Yea, that elevated storm in NE is way behind the cold front/dryline with northwesterly surface winds present.
HRRR runs throughout the late morning have been showing at least one probable supercell streaking NE across the 4-state area. The runs have not agreed on where this storm would track, however. The 17Z and 18Z runs (latest as of this posting) are indicating one supercell that will develop near Emporia, KS between 4 PM and 5 PM and move straight over downtown Kansas City.
Otherwise, initiation is generally underway along the main cold front from E NE through NE KS. A storm tried to go up SW of Concordia around an hour ago, but it has struggled mightily against the CIN that Nick mentioned, which still hangs tough throughout the tornado watch box. However, it appears to be eroding nicely now in C KS. As far as tornado potential goes, storms will have to get east of the Missouri River before they move into an area with sufficient low level shear to become tornadic.
Otherwise, initiation is generally underway along the main cold front from E NE through NE KS. A storm tried to go up SW of Concordia around an hour ago, but it has struggled mightily against the CIN that Nick mentioned, which still hangs tough throughout the tornado watch box. However, it appears to be eroding nicely now in C KS. As far as tornado potential goes, storms will have to get east of the Missouri River before they move into an area with sufficient low level shear to become tornadic.
Andrew Stoller
EF5
The storm in southeast NE will enter an uncapped area of 2,000 J CAPE in southwest IA in the next hour or two, and by that time helicity should be batter in that area. Should be interesting, as long as another storm doesn't initiate like you mentioned Jeff, and choke off inflow.
Storm in Otoe and Johnson Counties, NE seems to be developing a little bit of low-level rotation and perhaps an appendage. Some sort of echo overhang also appears to be forming on that storm. Could be transitioning into a supercell.
Ryan McGinnis
EF5
That storm that's riding right over OAX looks like it's getting it's act together; unless that's a radar artifact from being more or less right over the station, looks like it's forming a BWER. If it right turns, look out North Omaha!
Only concern is the storm to the SW of the OAX storm; as with all the storms firing today, remaining discreet is becoming a bit of a challenge.
Only concern is the storm to the SW of the OAX storm; as with all the storms firing today, remaining discreet is becoming a bit of a challenge.
Jason Bolt
Trying to decipher the radar returns behind the southeast NE storm. Looks like some kind of artifact seen best from Topeka's radar.
Brian Mette
EF0
That cell due north of OAX is now tornado warned, and a tornado was reported by a trained spotter. Looking at GRlevel3, the past few scans have shown a couplet, though it looks like its gone now.
Matt Hunt
EF3
That cell now has a significant hook echo. Jeffrey Gonzales is on it, but I can't get the live stream to come in!
can someone with good radar please do me the favor of telling me what the cell headed towards denison is like? I cant get any information and the last time i looked it looked like it was heading straight for my grandparents 
Nicholas,
It appears to be losing its organization pretty rapidly now that it is moving out of the warm sector.
It appears to be losing its organization pretty rapidly now that it is moving out of the warm sector.
BBauer
EF2
storm near greenfield showing rotation...
Matt Hunt
EF3
It's about to get robbed by the cell to the south!
