3/19/06 FCST: S-CTRL US

[Jonathan Whitehead]

well im not liking the picture SPC is painting with todays setup. Initially they had a large 5% area all up and down the Caprock but with this mornings update they significantly decreased that area and actually moved it to the Hill Country. With clouds, lack of insolation, and marginal instability, I really am sceptacle about anything discreete and organized popping up and before dark. I had thoughts like previous people that have posted of going over to Abilene and sitting but no way now. This one is already a bust for me. Will wait on the next setup that comes along.

 

[Bob Schafer]

I'm still sitting here at the LaQuinta in FST, and the sfc winds are from the N at est 10-12 kts! Call this CF Jason! It will not die!

I see on sat imagery that there is insolation just to my S, though, so maybe...I dunno. Kinda scratching my head at this point. I started to drive to DRT a while ago, then thought better of that.

With a sfc low at ~1001mb, why aren't backing winds stronger (anywhere)?

 

[Kevin Walter]

Looks like the front is now definitely south of FST, obs have been consistent for over an hour now. That area is starting to see what looks like good insolation from visible satellite, but sfc temps don't seem to be responding at all, AND sfc wind field is extremely weak in the warm sector (the warm sector that continues to slide off into Mexico), albeit coherently from the SE. I guess I can't be frustrated or expect too much from any March system, but I made the mistake of getting my hopes up about this one. I'm on the verge of calling it off for us. Stuff still may go, but it will be much farther south than originally thought, and I've got a car full of people (including myself) who have to work early Monday. Good luck to anyone out there.

 

[brody_clifton]

It looks like with that warm front forecasted to be pretty much stationary until the LLJ kicks up after dark, any true surface based activity will have to occur south of an east-west line through about one county north of SAT. Right now SAT is sitting at 77/68, so very juicy air down there. The CAP is a strong negative factor though, still above 100 J/kg of cinh in the warm sector, and forecasted to only begin to slowly erode from the west well after sunset.