2022-04-10 to -14 EVENT: KS/OK/MO

[Mike Smith]

Here's the odd thing about SPC's 1630Z forecast. They say,

"The thermodynamic/kinematic environment across
OK/southern KS will be supportive of supercells if convection can
develop. While this potential is noted, uncertainty is too high to
warrant 10% tornado probabilities at this time."

But, the hail outlook tells a completely different story with >2" hail forecasted even west of Wichita. We aren't going to see >2" hail without supercells. So, this seems like a big hedge by SPC.

 

[Patrick K]

The northern target in IA continues to look better and better, consistent with the split upper level support and proximity to the triple point. Dewpoints on mesonet are already a few degrees above what the 12z HRRR was predicting. HRRR is bullish on overall parameter space in parts of IA this evening, while even the 06z NAM3k is now showing some robust updraft helicity, granted a little later than the HRRR.