Mike Smith
EF5
Here's the odd thing about SPC's 1630Z forecast. They say,
"The thermodynamic/kinematic environment across
OK/southern KS will be supportive of supercells if convection can
develop. While this potential is noted, uncertainty is too high to
warrant 10% tornado probabilities at this time."
But, the hail outlook tells a completely different story with >2" hail forecasted even west of Wichita. We aren't going to see >2" hail without supercells. So, this seems like a big hedge by SPC.
![Screen Shot 2022-04-11 at 12.46.51 PM.png Screen Shot 2022-04-11 at 12.46.51 PM.png](https://stormtrack.org/data/attachments/39/39493-f89724fb38fd3531d6ad7c3a998e2ba3.jpg)
"The thermodynamic/kinematic environment across
OK/southern KS will be supportive of supercells if convection can
develop. While this potential is noted, uncertainty is too high to
warrant 10% tornado probabilities at this time."
But, the hail outlook tells a completely different story with >2" hail forecasted even west of Wichita. We aren't going to see >2" hail without supercells. So, this seems like a big hedge by SPC.
![Screen Shot 2022-04-11 at 12.46.51 PM.png Screen Shot 2022-04-11 at 12.46.51 PM.png](https://stormtrack.org/data/attachments/39/39493-f89724fb38fd3531d6ad7c3a998e2ba3.jpg)