David Schuttler
EF5
MD on this was out by 3pm central time
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- Weather and Chasing
- Target Area
3/17: FCST: Wednesday in TX, LA and AR
- Thread starter nickgrillo
- Start date
Kevin Scharfenberg
A few notes:
Severe thunderstorm watch #28 was issued by SPC for northeast OK and northwest AR at 5:10pm effective til 11:00pm.
Saying a storm is "high-based" does not imply that the storm is not "surface-based". High-based, to me, means surface-based but with a very high LCL/LFC (whereas "elevated" to me, means the parcels lifted into the storm's updraft are not surface based). So the storms in eastern Oklahoma are high-based but surface-based storms.
The dewpoint depressions are still quite high (20+F) at 7:15pm, and so far the hook echoes and low level shear signatures have been transient and/or weak, so I'm not too pumped about the tornado threat.
Back to watching radar.Matthew Hatton
radar shows those left splitting supercells rather nicely when you run the loop on Weathertap at the moment. Any more news from people in the field?
David Draun
EF5
I'd like to thank the more seasoned weather watchers out there for correcting my earlier errors. I'm not an expert at this subject, but I learn more every day.
Perhaps tornadoes will not occur from these storms, but at least there's some good structure out there according to the spotters. Too bad it's getting dark now.
Dave
John Gnuechtel
EF3
Since all these people seem to be online talking about this event right now, I'd like to float a question...
Is it safe to assume that at least a few of the tiny storms to the southwest of the main cluster (best visible here http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p1...0/si.ktlx.shtml) might be LP supercells?Kevin Scharfenberg
No doubt these are very interesting storms to watch...I hope someone got out there to take some pictures!
David Schuttler
EF5
The storm just sout of Tulsa just got a storm warning for it. Okmulgee County
David Draun
EF5
There are about a half dozen warnings for these cells, hail to golfball size seems to be the main threat.S.P. McCool
Allright boys (& girls), this thread has convinced me. No more waffling on where I want to live when I can buy some property (about a year I hope - but y\'all know about the best-laid plans of mice and men)...I gotta live in Oklahoma!
Tim Vasquez
EF5
- Joined
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Storms near Sallisaw have pretty good notches. As of 0147Z SRM velocity is showing 45 kt of cyclonic gate-to-gate shear 12 NW of Sallisaw and a TVS. The other storm has 32 kt of gate/gate 11 ENE of Sallisaw but it's a bit further away. No tornado warning though.Karen Rhoden
Don't fall into the trap of relying solely on what a computer software package is constantly feeding you.
Think about it - have there been/are there any current tornado warnings out for this cluster of cells? That tells me something.......
With 45 degree dewpoints in northeastern Oklahoma, it's looking pretty dry up there.....and tornadoes don't like "dry".
"5 Confirmed Mesos" (AKA spinny hoops) means absolutely nothing.
I would be surprised if there were ANY tornadoes from today's events.....but anything's possible and I'm no expert.
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Karen E. Rhoden
Gabe Garfield
EF5
Karen, you are right in saying they mean very little. Mesocylclone and tornado detection algorithms are far from accurate...in fact, they tend to be more off the mark than they are on.
Gabe
Joe Guerra
EF2
I spoke too soon. I would think from what i learned i would not jump to conclusions like that. There are mesos though but i have been informed it is mid-level rotation and i will now be surprised if we get one. I think i jumped to conclusions because i am now suffering from SDS (Supercell Deprivation Syndrome) But 2 inch hail is possible in this storm.Karen Rhoden
I just worry that somebody will actually eventually get themselves into serious trouble sooner rather than later, using/relying on those type of packages with their here-we-come-to-save-the-day type algorithms in the field in a serious, real-life storm situation.
Give me a highway and a pair of binoculars anyday.
______________________________
Karen.
David Draun
EF5
I spoke too soon. I would think from what i learned i would not jump to conclusions like that. There are mesos though but i have been informed it is mid-level rotation and i will now be surprised if we get one. I think i jumped to conclusions because i am now suffering from SDS (Supercell Deprivation Syndrome) But 2 inch hail is possible in this storm.
MD 197 is now out for AR/OK. It talks about an increasing threat of downbursts from the supercells approaching Ft. Smith, as the boundary layer is cooling and lapse rates are steep. About SDS, perhaps AMA should identify this chaser-afflicting disease. They could easily identify symptoms, and perscribe some treatment? :lol: What could doctors perscribe for SDS?
David Draun
EF5
Weather channel's Jim Cantore just put out that storm spotters in Ft. Smith have reported 70 mph wind gusts and power outages. Must be the downburst event starting.mikegeukes
EF5
Severe Weather Event is over, removed information.
Mike
David Draun
EF5
That's exactly what I thought a V-notch was. The storms in AR are expected to weaken as they move toward Little Rock and into cooler air.
David Draun
EF5
I'm surprised this thread has gone quiet.
The storms have merged into a MCS with a nasty lookin bow echo into central Arkansas. A new watch was issued earlier to cover this new threat.
Perhaps anyone there could get some CG lightning shots? What an active evening!
Happy St Patty's Day!
DaveSimilar threads
