3/17: FCST: Wednesday in TX, LA and AR

[nickgrillo]

ETA bringing stronger SBCAPE owed to decent low-level temperatures and moisture (yielding more than 2000j/kg in some spots). Anybody chasing?

Discuss:

 

[Jason Montano]

chase?!?

I dunno, I might, from the look of it there may be a few supercells in NE texas tomorrow. I like the forecast highs and dp's I think the ETA is understating dp's at the moment but GFS is forecasting mid 60's dp. Also with a LLJ and ok shear added to CAPE of >1500 could be nice. That is if the warm front travels north enough b/c favorable winds look to be confined to small area.

I will wait for the 00z update and make up my mind. What do you all think?

 

[Rich Pena]

Chasing Wednesday

Do you think trough will hold out long? It sure seems temps are rather too cool and CAPE values are not looking too good or at least so far maybe find out tomorrow 12z. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/compmap/ Hmm CAPE/CAP , temps and dps though I bet are a problem for tomorrow. Well, I hope at least we get a good lightning show out of it at least in the evening, I want to be able to practice using my new digital camera's over exposure settings. It Sure is cool out now; well I wish best of luck to day time heating and vertical wind shear.

 

[Jim Bishop]

My only major concern is whether initiation will occur. If the shortwave is stronger, or even moves a little faster, I'm probably heading out. Of course, I'm not sure what I'd tell my boss since I'm scheduled....

Happy Chasing everyone,

Jim

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Come on Jim... you've got to have about 500 excuses to pick from Just tell him you gotta study for that partial differential equations test next week. :lol:

Aaron

 

[John Cameron]

73/58 in SPS @ 17Z

:shock:

wish the shortwave was a little stronger

 

[Bob Schafer]

As of 10:43AM, the theta-e ridge has Td's above 60 just S of the risk area, though with light backing winds on the order of 5 to 10 knots. There is abundant insolation, and the RUC says sfc temps should be ~80.

However, that is a lot of dew depression, and I'm wondering if any storms that can initiate can get rooted.

The biggest problem may be the 700 temps, at 4-6C. That's kinda high for St Patrick's Day, and the synoptic orientation of the upper level system precludes cold air advection in the mid-levels. Plus, 850RH is only about 50-60%, so there's not much help with latent heat there, either. Those two parameters tell me that that's the reason the LI's are only progged at about -4 for 00Z. With such weak instability, UVV's will be low.

I'll guess either cap bust or some (somewhat) high-based and low-topped junk for tonight.

Bob

 

[Jim Bishop]

You're right Aaron, what was I thinking! I'll tell my boss I'm studying on Saint Patrick's Day! I'm sure that will fly...LOL

I've looked at the data. Basically, there's probably around a 20% chance initiation will occur. The models are showing the vort max a little stronger, and a little further north. This, plus dryline convergence, along with moisture convergence near the low level moisture ridge/tonge could potential provide enough forcing withe surface temps in the lower 80's. I'm betting against it, but there's still a chance. Man I'm gonna be pissed if something goes up, 'cause it will be a freakin sweet looking supercell!

Happy Saint Patrick's Day!

Jim

 

[Joel Wright]

As of ~1830Z it looks like the beginning of a cumulus field in southern OK.

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

Given a look at satellite trends and a quick modification of soundings, I wouldn't be too surprised to see a good storm go up in the area between Paris, TX and Ada, OK in the next few hours. Still not a very high probability, but that's the area I'm watching.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Man.... just watching the status of the Cu field over Norman was a good reminder of how much I love meteorology. With the sun beating down (over 80 out now!) and the Cu slowly getting bigger, it really gets me pumped for chase season.


Aaron

 

[David Draun]

Severe thunderstorm watch!!!

So much for high based storms. That convection is surfaced based, people. There is even a thunderstorm watch for the area. Radar looks like severe multicell storms. Cu field go boom! :lol:

 

[Matthew Hatton]

well there are at two warnings out now but no MD yet?

 

[David Draun]

I'm betting against it, but there's still a chance. Man I'm gonna be pissed if something goes up, 'cause it will be a freakin sweet looking supercell!

Happy Saint Patrick's Day!

Jim

Well, it must be luck'o'the Irish, because those cells have V-notches on them. They probably are some sweet-lookin supercells. Too bad no tornadoes.

Happy St. Patricks Day!

Dave

 

[Matthew Hatton]

sorry to ask but what is a V notch? On the ground, would you be viewing a clear slot?