3/11/06 FCST: Great Lakes to Western Gulf Coast

[beaudodson]

Note to those in the Springfield, Missouri area

NOTE: THE NWS SGF WILL BE CONDUCTING A SHORT LIVE SEVERE WEATHER
BRIEFING ON ALL NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AT 1 PM.

 

[Kevin Askew]

Looks like we will be setting up in MO. Bootheel, Pemmiscott co. is very clear through Blythesville. Looks to be very ripe that way. Wont go west out of flatlands but all up I-55 looks very good ATM. Good luck to everyone today and especially tomorrow. May get a high risk for Sunday?
Kevin

 

[David Wolfson]

FWIW, my "feeling" is the best early storms will fire in a few hours along the eastern border of LA and AK. This early time of year you need enough juice and helicity without too much upper flow shearing things all to heck. The vis appears to show an old boundary set up just south of the border. There's also some sort of mid-level jet impulse approaching Shreveport. The best backed surface winds seem to be in eastern LA, AK, and in MS, with enough clearing for some decent diurnal heating.

 

[Bill Tabor]

RUC showing TX pretty hard capped today with no precip breakout. Anyone believe this? NAM doesn't quite agree.

Still on NAM I see us on wrong side of 300mb jet and latest run seems to show even more subsidense. That said a few of the forecast soundings based on NAM looked good. As yesterday TXK was my fav with PRX and TYR having reasonable soundings as well. They also show minimal CIN by 0z with fairly high cape and helicity to boot.

 

[Bill Tabor]

RUC and NAM having kind of different interpretations with regard to area but some commonality. As mentioned there is a difference on where precip can break. NAM seems to think it can happen in Tx whereas RUC really doesn't. However RUC tends to focus more severe parameters and potential in Tx and in other areas than just extreme ne (such as east and over toward CRS maybe even ACT - CLL?) - albeit supposedly capped. NAM on the other hand seems to like north and east even better (eastern OK, AR, even further east). I probably should be looking at Ensembles.

I'm not focusing on the best overall area to chase (haven't analyzed particularly for that angle); however based on what I have seen TXK has a good shot and areas up in AR seem even better. FSM and MWT have very good forecast soundings for 0z. I expect over toward TUL may have some potential and even areas east toward TN and southern MO may bear watching as potential chase target favs.

I'll be working on the house and monitoring for MSD at which point I'll see if there is potential for heading out local 100 to 200 miles quickly. I'll probably activate Threatnet because I may start using it soon.

Good luck for those of you chasing today. With tornadoes & wind / large hail in hills and trees you will need it! :lol: