2025-05-19 EVENT: KS/OK/TX/MO/AR

[Derek Weston]

Monday looks to be another regional outbreak of severe weather across the plains.

This time with perhaps a broader warm sector extending further east. Upper level support digs in deeper Monday and provides a more highly sheared environment. Currently the GFS is pushing this forward a bit further east than the NAM, keeping most of the action east of I-35. Instability again looks to be potentially strong to extreme across the region.

Previous runs had the surface low decaying during the day before reforming in a rather weak state. Latest runs don't seem to favor this solution, but something I'm keeping an eye on.

At any rate, another day of potentially high end severe weather I'll be out for the in plains.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

Tonights 00Z NAM looks pretty potent on Monday but I wanted to specifically point out the Deja Vu I felt when I checked on Normans forecast sounding.


Not saying that's what will happen of course, but that is likely the ceiling for this event. The upper air pattern resembles those days in which previous tornado outbreaks have happened. With a very strong north/south alignment of the dryline up to a 992MB low in Northern Kansas, this will absolutely be a chase day in OK/KS

 

[Matthew Crowther]

OK, it looks like it will be explosive today, mainly in Oklahoma. I will join the hordes (which I generally despise), but since it is the last good chance for tornadoes for maybe quite a while, we will go for it.

 

[Justin McGinley]

We got a lot of cleaning going on in northern Kansas. Would you guys think that would expand that enhanced risk little further west and north into Nebraska?

 

[Ben Holcomb]

RAP showing the dryline hanging west of OKC Metro all day. Pretty good venting on the point soundings I clicked.

12z FWD and OUN both loaded gun soundings. Deep moisture in place and just waiting on that jet to get here as it plows across New Mexico this morning. LLJ should be cranking most of the day as well especially east of the OKC Metro.

Should be an interesting day. Kind of surprised the SPC did not go high risk at 13z but there are definitely still some questions too

 

[Jeff House]

Justin, Nebraska could work if you are restricted to local. 10% hatched gets just across the KS/NE border, and justifiably so with the surface boundary lifting north. It'll have locally greater low-level shear. Otherwise the best deep layer wind shear is farther south.

Upstairs northern Kansas has SSW winds at 500 mb and slightly backed LLJ. Its enough and that's why 10% hatched anywhere in the open warm sector of Kansas. It's also possible the western Missouri convection (as of 10am CDT) leaves a little outflow boundary for eastern Kansas.

Boundary is discernable in Oklahoma too. Slightly wind barb kink is noted on the 15Z surface chart, along with temp and dewpoint differential. Oklahoma boundary is likely left from overnight rain. 500 mb wind is SW and the LLJ is nearly as backed as up in Kansas. Therefore, greater turning with height is forecast in Oklahoma. Speed shear is robust too; 500 mb winds are strongest southern Kansas into Oklahoma. I can see why the Moderate is on the south of the center of the Enhanced.

Targets: Well there is always the Shawnee Oklahoma anniversary to observe. It'll be crowded and keep in mind you get more trees east of OKC.

Kansas target: One could follow the eastern Kansas wind barb kink, and soon (hopefully) visible satellite signature of a boundary there. It's not the greatest turning with height, but the area has plenty of shear overall. One can see forever in the Flint Hills.

North target: The ol' synoptic boundary is near the KS/NE border. If surface winds keep backed it will have enough low level turning / local SRH. Feels like a bit of a gamble, but it should be less crowded. Storm motion may be a bit left of those farther south.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

Parameters are mostly good across the board so today's target (here in Oklahoma) is going to be based on chaseability and enjoyability. Three staging locations in Oklahoma to choose from, from what I can see. Shawnee is good but as Jeff mentioned, the trees are an issue and roads to the northeast could be iffy. Ardmore is good as well, but east of I-35 may be worse than Shawnee and there may be more storm coverage and traffic issues down there. The third is northeast of OKC possibly near Perkins or Stillwater. Little bit more open that way and traffic won't be as much of an issue, unless of course there's chaser convergence, but I managed it well yesterday so hopefully it will be even better today.

Leaning heavily towards Perkins/Stillwater and will adjust west if needed as the dryline is starting to march through western OK. If I'm wrong I may miss something but I'll also miss plenty of grief along the way.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I like the look of the dryline bulge emerging in the KS/NE border area. It appears to be shaping up into a nice surface low arc situation. I don't think that CAMs are going to be of much use today (as with yesterday).

 

[Derek Weston]

I like the look of the dryline bulge emerging in the KS/NE border area. It appears to be shaping up into a nice surface low arc situation. I don't think that CAMs are going to be of much use today (as with yesterday).

Probably my play as well given that I need to be back home in Iowa City tomorrow. That said, HRRR has me thinking of jumping down towards ITC area. Will have to decide shortly at Salina.

 

[Jesse Risley]

I'm partial to E NE today but owed primarily to a disgust over the hordes yesterday. The northern target is definitely going to benefit from the approaching mid-level jet streak and sufrace triple point working into the area. There is decent destabilization occurring now. By late afternoon 0-3km CAPE and shear profiles look adequate for supercells with all modes possible. Granted, it is somewhat removed from the best SRH but I would hope there is enough vorticity on the or near the surface low to compensate for that. Historically, these targets have tended to produce 1-2 photogenic tors proximal to the triple point although this low is more elongated and surface winds are not particularly strong yet. Eastern Kanas has a ripe environment right now too. It's hard telling how OK plays out. It looks like a messier storm mode but getting on the right cell that takes a right turn from a split into an ambient environment tells me there are likely to be a few big tors there today if everything comes together properly. I'd watch the convection that comes off the DL later.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I have a bias toward the south today because I need to fly home tomorrow as “round 1” of my chase season comes to a close (need to get home for my son’s graduation, and coming back out with him after that). I don’t have flights booked yet, but DFW is the best choice for flights to Philly, and in fact pretty much the only choice for direct flights other than DEN and (to a limited extent) Kansas City. Take it with a grain of salt due to this bias, but I like the area between Comanche OK and the river, where the dryline seems tighter and could be to the northeast of a dryline bulge in NW TX depicted on the RAP. HRRR reliability in this scenario notwithstanding, there are signals for development on the TX side of the river and crossing into OK. Storms seem more likely to remain discrete in that area, and are at least starting out in better terrain before crossing the longitude of I-35. Hodographs show good venting as Ben noted, but low-level shear is lacking with the LLJ displaced to the east (and largely southwesterly, except in extreme eastern OK).

 

[Matt Zumbrunn]

I'm partial to E NE today but owed primarily to a disgust over the hordes yesterday. The northern target is definitely going to benefit from the approaching mid-level jet streak and sufrace triple point working into the area. There is decent destabilization occurring now. By late afternoon 0-3km CAPE and shear profiles look adequate for supercells with all modes possible. Granted, it is somewhat removed from the best SRH but I would hope there is enough vorticity on the or near the surface low to compensate for that. Historically, these targets have tended to produce 1-2 photogenic tors proximal to the triple point although this low is more elongated and surface winds are not particularly strong yet. Eastern Kanas has a ripe environment right now too. It's hard telling how OK plays out. It looks like a messier storm mode but getting on the right cell that takes a right turn from a split into an ambient environment tells me there are likely to be a few big tors there today if everything comes together properly. I'd watch the convection that comes off the DL later.

Models didn't have the temps getting above 74 around initiation time and dew points upper 60s (at least the 4 I looked at) here at the house (East Central KS). It's 81 here now with a 71 degree dew point measured at the airport. It is going to be interesting to see convective evolution. I get off work at 1400 cst but fear I may be late to the party.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

I gave up on the day pretty early. Went out for the first wave and watched a mini-cell zoom by my location near Tryon, OK. Decided to use home-field advantage and went home and watched visible satellite to wait for supercells to possibly pop along Highway 81 but it was not to be.

Everything looks like high speed hot garbage today. I'll rest up for the next setup.

 

[Jason N]

I was too busy to really dig in, but one thing seems evident is that upscale growth was fast and probably made choosing cells pretty difficult based on the radars presentation.

 

[Jason N]

Could someone remind me what these Arcs are on radar out of OAX... it's not spurious long trip echoes or AP I don't believe. I can't remember