2022-05-30 EVENT: ND/MN/IA/NE/KS

[Andrew Butler]

On Monday an extremely potent (90-100 knot!) mid- level shortwave is forecast to move through the established long wave trough over the southwest and eject northeastward over the central and northern plains.

A very deep surface low for late spring should reside over central/eastern South Dakota by Monday afternoon with an also very rare dryline extending southward with a classic "bent back", north and northeast of the low that we see so often in our big events up here. This is very reminiscent of 6/17/10 which produced numerous significant tornadoes over Minnesota and eastern North Dakota.

O-1km helicities on the bent back front should easily reach 300+ m2/s2 and surface dewpoints are forecast in the upper 60s resulting in a very favorable profile for tornadic supercells- at least early in the evolution of the event, which should, as is usual up here, transition fairly quickly into line segments, but not before a decent window of tornadic opportunity.

This all looks to set up on the classic i94 corridor or close by which seems to happen with so many of our late spring/early summer events. For now I am targeting a Willmar to Alexandria to Fargo line and would think getting as close to the low as possible in far western MN and maybe eastern ND would be a good game plan.

I won't cover the risk areas further south in Iowa/Nebraska/Kansas -those chasing down there can add their thoughts.

Models of course still need nail down details/overnight-morning convection, but for now this looks to be setting up in very chaseable territory. Storm motions are a problem, so staying downstream will be a very important chasing strategy. Early spring dynamics over late spring kinematics. Good luck everyone.

 

[Jeff House]

Monday I agree that with Andrew on the primary target (original post). Chasers with the time and energy should get up there.

We will probably target the south end in Neb. Kan. Note a frontal occlusion is forecast between targets Monday; so, it's one or the other.

South target the DL and CF separate again. Also the front from the North low may drape in such a way to act like a stationary front east of the South TP. Sunday night rain may also deposit outflow boundaries for Monday. Finally Monday LLJ will be strong South too; so, it should anchor such east-west boundaries. Good for Monday Madness.

A two target day. A long time ago in some Plains far far away...

 

[Matt Hunt]

Sheesh, this has long-track violent tornadoes written all over it. Is it just me, or is it rare to have a 100 kt jet this time of year? Storm motions are a big problem. I'm now seeing 50+ knots on soundings in the 12z NAM. My hope was for more northerly storm motion so there isn't so much stair-stepping needed. But it looks more NE on soundings. It has moved further south, with the surface low over SE SD at 21z, moving up into SW MN by 00z. I agree with Andrew in sticking close to the surface low, as well as staying far out in front of storms until there's an ongoing tornado, then intercept and *try* to keep up. Even with the issues, I feel it's the better play, as it looks like a very narrow corridor of eroded cap further south.

 

[Andrew Butler]

Sheesh, this has long-track violent tornadoes written all over it. Is it just me, or is it rare to have a 100 kt jet this time of year?

Early June 2007- 979mb surface low over MN/associated high risk
Early June 2008- 980mb in the vicinity- high risk bust

It happens, but not often. And as usual yes storm motions are a big big problem. 12z nam as you stated is a pure triple point play and much further south. Not sure I believe that far south yet. Time will tell.

 

[JamesCaruso]

In 25 years of chasing, I haven't ventured into Minnesota, and I don't intend to start now. I'll take my chances in KS, where hopefully there is more-isolated development along the dryline. There is also a hint of a triple point in north-central KS on the 12Z NAM by 7pm Monday. Storm motions not much better, but even 10 knots slower helps. As @Brett Nickeson noted in the State of the Chase Season thread, look at how far the surface low and warm front travel between 21Z and 0Z; I don't want to end up way the hell up there... Perhaps the roads/terrain in MN are actually better than in northeastern KS, but at least at this point I'm inclined to go with a region that is more comfortable and familiar to me. Less of a drive both before and after Monday is also appealing, having already traveled from Denver down to Odessa up to Nebraska... I think Monday has high-risk bust written all over it, but that could just be me doing my wishful thinking out loud...

 

[Andy Wehrle]

It's interesting...I remember 4/12 being expected to have fast storm speeds, which was one of the reasons I didn't jump right under the updraft base of the storm when it became severe warned west of Fort Dodge, instead staying put near Humboldt and waiting for it to come to me...which cost me the Gilmore City tornado. The storm speeds given in the warning statements were very confusing, ranging from the expected 55-60 MPH early down to as low as 35 MPH when the storm was tornado warned. After that cycle the storm turned into an HP blob with no more visible tornadoes but I was able to stay ahead of it without much trouble all the way to the Mississippi River. Likewise I don't think the one tornadic supercell (Mangum) on 5/20/19 moved as fast as it was expected to...more like 45 MPH instead of 55+. Even the 35 MPH convoy of chasers was able to sort of stay with it (although not gain any ground on it) and I broke off because it was visually apparent that it was crapping out.

 

[JeremyS]

In 25 years of chasing, I haven't ventured into Minnesota, and I don't intend to start now. I'll take my chances in KS, where hopefully there is more-isolated development along the dryline. There is also a hint of a triple point in north-central KS on the 12Z NAM by 7pm Monday. Storm motions not much better, but even 10 knots slower helps. As @Brett Nickeson noted in the State of the Chase Season thread, look at how far the surface low and warm front travel between 21Z and 0Z; I don't want to end up way the hell up there... Perhaps the roads/terrain in MN are actually better than in northeastern KS, but at least at this point I'm inclined to go with a region that is more comfortable and familiar to me. Less of a drive both before and after Monday is also appealing, having already traveled from Denver down to Odessa up to Nebraska... I think Monday has high-risk bust written all over it, but that could just be me doing my wishful thinking out loud...

James- I’ve chased a bit in Minnesota over the years. Western and southern Minnesota are pretty good. My first career tornadoes were from the outbreak in Minnesota on 6/17/10. Saw 8-10 in southern Minnesota. Eastern ND and SD are amazing. It doesn’t take too long though before you get into trees and lakes east of Fargo in Minnesota. If the northern target ends up being that far north I’m going to stay south too.

 

[Andrew Butler]

Models, including now the 12z Euro, seem to be converging on a more favorable position of the low over the NE/SD border at go time, which puts the excellent terrain of eastern SD and southwest MN into play. Still screaming fast storm motions which shouldn't be a surprise I guess. Toasty 750mb temps out in front eroding rapidly for explosive supercell development mid afternoon along the dryline/triple point. I won't post the screen grab here because I'm sure everyone has seen it but the FV3 is...something else. It's our most convective happy model and boy does it not disappoint.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Will chase as far south as possible to avoid the clown show (not ST members of course) and maybe avoid fast-moving storms over varied terrain. The rest of the week goes insane down south if you gamble on the GFS. Lots of options for those chasing north and south, which is very considerate of Mother Nature.

 

[Christian S]

Will chase as far south as possible to avoid the clown show (not ST members of course) and maybe avoid fast-moving storms over varied terrain. The rest of the week goes insane down south if you gamble on the GFS. Lots of options for those chasing north and south, which is very considerate of Mother Nature.

Are you chasing tomorrow by chance? My plan is to hit Hastings, Nebraska by noonish and go from there.

 

[Andrew Butler]

Can't believe I'm typing this but I had to toss my usual mindset of chasing up here several hours ago and start treating this like a Kansas/Oklahoma big day. Triple point is obvious and should go first maybe very early and literally scream northeast towards the woods, with many storms to choose from and probably a fairly chaotic environment, and then 1-2 hours later the dryline south lights up with (maybe) more isolated activity and a bit slower storm motions. For that reason and knowing the terrain where the monster parameters set up late in the day, I am opting to play the front farther south and hope for the best.

This looks so eerily similar to 6/17/10 except the synoptic set up looks even more impressive.

 

[Christian S]

Can't believe I'm typing this but I had to toss my usual mindset of chasing up here several hours ago and start treating this like a Kansas/Oklahoma big day. Triple point is obvious and should go first maybe very early and literally scream northeast towards the woods, with many storms to choose from and probably a fairly chaotic environment, and then 1-2 hours later the dryline south lights up with (maybe) more isolated activity and a bit slower storm motions. For that reason and knowing the terrain where the monster parameters set up late in the day, I am opting to play the dryline farther south and hope for the best.

This looks so eerily similar to 6/17/10 except the synoptic set up looks even more impressive.

Where exactly is your target area? I was considering Hastings, NE by noonish then possibly going more south to Kansas

 

[Andrew Butler]

Where exactly is your target area? I was considering Hastings, NE by noonish then possibly going more south to Kansas

tenous target as of right now might be a Windom to Redwood Falls on over to Mankato triangle. I won't leave MN but have no desire to play the warm front and big parameters considering how fast they end up in lake/tree country

 

[JamesCaruso]

6Z NAM already had the warm front up in the unchaseable terrain of northern MN, and the 12Z NAM jumps the surface low northeast quite a bit from the earlier run… Yesterday I was starting to feel tempted to head up that way, but am now squarely in the KS camp. Not too thrilled with the orientation of the dryline, the convergence along it, or the orientation of the mid level flow relative to the dryline, but will still take my chances on that. My main fear is that the strong dynamics are causing the models some difficulty with respect to location of the surface features and tomorrow I’ll find that the southern dryline play is too close to metro areas of eastern KS or in the trees of Missouri…

 

[Jeff House]

Monday we have shifted our target in between, in a reversal from my north or south previous post.

We expect outflow from Sunday to still be around Sioux Falls east. WF may go north Minn. Coverage will be greater up there, per SPC. However SPC is for the WFOs and public - where coverage is the threat.

For us chasers, we can target south to the outflow. Not as much coverage. Likely slower storm motion. 500 mb screaming, but a right turner chomping on the LLJ will slow down.

I’m not feeling Kansas Monday, but it could happen if the DL goes. Subject to change based on Sunday, for Monday we are looking at Sioux Falls to Iowa.