2021-03-12 EVENT: TX/NM/OK

[Ben Holcomb]

So I've been watching the evolution of the NAM on this system, and things seem to be shaping up for an evening or overnight tornadoes in the Texas Panhandle into New Mexico. Perhaps I am missing something here, but after 03Z things ramp up significantly with surface based supercells. Right along a sagging warm front seems to be an ideal place for a whopper.

1500+ surface based cape and 0-3 cape numbers of over 100 with dewpoints around 60 near the TX/NM border. Is this March?

Bring your flashlights

 

[Jason Boggs]

Yeah, I am interested in the area of Hwy 60 and south kind of between Amarillo and Bovina. Only thing is, it looks like it may be after dark. Shear profiles look really good with a decent shortwave depicted on 500 mb maps in the western TX Panhandle. CAPE looks decent too with numbers up to 1500 or so. Td's are only in the low to mid 50's in the area of concern with surface temps in the upper 50's to low 60's. Lapse rates looked ok which might make up a bit for the negatives. Overall, I sure wouldn't be surprised at a couple of striated supercells with a chance of a tornado. NOTE: Everything I looked at was at 00Z. EDIT: Just looked at some forecasted hodographs for 03Z near the Dimmitt-Littlefield area, and yeah, would not surprise me at all to get a tor down that way.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

The 00Z NAM seems to change things a bit compared to the earlier 12Z run. Still could see a hose or two Friday as NAM depicts.

Interesting that 48hr HRRR at 00Z was showing 65 dewpoints along the OK/KS border. Moisture always seems to be the lacking element this time of year, however, I don't believe that will be the case Friday night. 00Z FWD and OUN soundings depict decent low level moisture for this time of year.

As of right now, it'll be interesting to watch timing. If that shortwave comes in faster, we may be able to get some supercells before sunset.

 

[Mike Smith]

Things are looking better for tomorrow (Friday), so I thought I would start a thread.

While the dynamics are not as strong as I would like, elements seem to be coming together for a localized area of SVR from Chickasha to about LBB. I have posted two snapshots of the 00Z Fri (6pm Thu CST) HRRR valid 02Z Sat. (8pm Friday)/ The HRRR depicts both splitting cells and even hints at a hook echo.

Forecast soundings look pretty good. The trigger may be a short wave hinted at by the HRRR at 500mb rotating through southern New Mexico.

This is worth keeping an eye on. Good luck, everyone.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I'd target the Childress area as a starting point -- fully anticipating the circus will no doubt be in full "Insane Clown Posse" mode. Regardless, I think today and tomorrow are sleeper days and could offer a surprise or two for the patient chaser. Storms should be moving in a civilized manner for March, e.g., <35kt. Good to see the action moving back west, hopefully a trend for the rest of the season. There are issues with the set-up(s) -- depending on your choice of model soundings ATM. Good day to armchair forecast and get in some practice after a long break.