2019-04-6 EVENT: TX/OK/LA

[Marc Gebhard]

Looking at the NAM Supercell Composite model for Saturday 18 Z, it seems that we could see a bit of a severe weather event in at least parts of Texas on Saturday afternoon.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=scp&rh=2019040318&fh=75&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

NAM model soundings at this point are even putting PDS TOR on the map. We'll want to keep our eye on TX, OK and LA on Saturday and Sunday.

 

[Marc Gebhard]

And here's the GFS for 18Z Saturday...Wednesday evening run... Take a look at this robust supercell composit prediction southeast of DFW.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=scp&rh=2019040318&fh=72&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

 

[Jeff House]

Decent low level shear and instability is forecast in Texas on the ECMWF. However VBV looks like an issue farther up. Morning Hodo is long but well curved. By game time it looks ugly though.

If I still lived in Texas I might consider the south end of a forecast MCS and/or redevelopment. Actually I'm glad I'm not tempted from here in Tenn.

 

[James Gustina]

I'm somewhat interested in a potential target of SW OK along the Red River (Greer County-ish) based on this morning's 12Z NAM run, but even the NAM's more bullish solution had a noticeable weakness at 700 mb like Jeff noted above which makes me leery on top of potential subsidence in the wake of an overnight/morning MCS through the area. That possible MCS may also stunt moisture return further north and west as the dryline retreats west overnight.

All 3 high resolution WRF members paint a pretty messy scenario with multiple convective complexes traversing Texas at 12Z the morning of. and kind of contribute to my doubts about convective initiation anywhere with the shear to put out something pretty like we saw yesterday. If it was May, I'd be more confident in getting an outflow boundary to possibly set up on, but I just don't like the look of this setup as it gets closer.

 

[Marc Gebhard]

Hmmm...The HRRR around 7 pm tomorrow looks pretty good for supercell development in the Texas panhandle.


https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=scp&rh=2019040518&fh=30&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

 

[Jeff House]

Wind shear and helicity are a little low for the Panhandle(s). Instability drives up the composite, but the short-waves are timed wrong, and it shows in the Hodograph. I'm not trying to poo-poo the set-up. Good to discuss what makes up an index though.

Bottom line: EHI is also elevated, but mainly from CAPE. Helicity is meh.