Quincy Vagell
EF4
Recent trends suggest less convective overturning/debris over Oklahoma this morning, meaning much of the state is probably going to see substantial destabilization by early afternoon. High-resolution model guidance also favors more discrete/semi-discrete storm modes than earlier runs, particularly during the beginning of the event. Moisture will not be a limiting factor, as 06z observations show mid to upper 60s dew-points already up to the Red River along the OK/TX border.
It's still a bit difficult to pinpoint the greatest tornado threat, as early day showers/convective activity may leave one or more outflow boundaries in place. My guess is that the eastern third of Oklahoma is at greatest risk, but if storms initiate ahead of and avoid interaction with the main frontal boundary through late afternoon/early evening, you could see a bonafide tornado farther west across Oklahoma as well.
The southern half of Illinois is still very interesting, as previously mentioned by myself and others. Near-term guidance is rather aggressive with destabilization and storms could get going as early as lunchtime. Storms that interact with the warm front will likely have the greatest potential at producing tornadoes.
I'm not quite sure what to make of the West Texas/Low Rolling Plains threat just yet, in terms of tornadoes. A few storms will probably try to initiate off the dryline, but at least through 21-22z, low to mid-level wind fields look marginal at best and this area will be displaced away from more favorable forcing over Oklahoma and points northeast. This means that any tornado threat would be highly conditional and would largely hinge off of the ability of storms to persist either far enough east and/or late enough (after 23-00z) to take advantage of a gradually intensifying low-level jet. Several convection allowing model solutions show a few isolated storms developing, but not persisting very long.
It's still a bit difficult to pinpoint the greatest tornado threat, as early day showers/convective activity may leave one or more outflow boundaries in place. My guess is that the eastern third of Oklahoma is at greatest risk, but if storms initiate ahead of and avoid interaction with the main frontal boundary through late afternoon/early evening, you could see a bonafide tornado farther west across Oklahoma as well.
The southern half of Illinois is still very interesting, as previously mentioned by myself and others. Near-term guidance is rather aggressive with destabilization and storms could get going as early as lunchtime. Storms that interact with the warm front will likely have the greatest potential at producing tornadoes.
I'm not quite sure what to make of the West Texas/Low Rolling Plains threat just yet, in terms of tornadoes. A few storms will probably try to initiate off the dryline, but at least through 21-22z, low to mid-level wind fields look marginal at best and this area will be displaced away from more favorable forcing over Oklahoma and points northeast. This means that any tornado threat would be highly conditional and would largely hinge off of the ability of storms to persist either far enough east and/or late enough (after 23-00z) to take advantage of a gradually intensifying low-level jet. Several convection allowing model solutions show a few isolated storms developing, but not persisting very long.
