2018 severe wx/chase season discussion

[Andy Wehrle]

Throw it (this season) in and strike the match!

 

[Brett Nickeson]

Since 2006 has been brought up a few times as one of the quintessential definitions of an awful chase year, I did a little comparison strictly with tornado numbers and placements. The image on the left below is JUST April and May of 2006. The image on the right is all of 2018 so far (and I think the number of dots will be damn near exactly the same a week from now). It's pretty easy to see that 2018 is far worse than 2006 was. There's always still June to turn this thing around, but purely by tornado numbers in the plains 2006 doesn't hold a candle to 2018's atrociousness.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Since 2006 has been brought up a few times as one of the quintessential definitions of an awful chase year, I did a little comparison strictly with tornado numbers and placements. The image on the left below is JUST April and May of 2006. The image on the right is all of 2018 so far (and I think the number of dots will be damn near exactly the same a week from now). It's pretty easy to see that 2018 is far worse than 2006 was. There's always still June to turn this thing around, but purely by tornado numbers in the plains 2006 doesn't hold a candle to 2018's atrociousness.

Thanks for that Brett. It would be interesting to see a similar comparison just for severe weather reports because I feel like there have at least been more storms this year whereas in 2006 it was just blue sky. Of course, that is just my recollection of the particular time I was on my chase vacation in 2006 so purely anecdotal and subject to my fading memory of that year...

 

[JamesCaruso]

As of this moment I am still intending to head out next week.

It wasn’t worth it to me to chase marginal crap all week, feeling almost obligated to drive hundreds of miles every day for the most conditional setups, and to be away from my family for that (or even potentially less than that) on Memorial Day Weekend.

But it’s hard to imagine not going out there at all, to be on the Plains even just enjoying a garden-variety thunderstorm and other skyscapes, and really just to get away from the same old daily routine. I wouldn’t want to drive all over the place and be away from my professional and personal responsibilities for much more than a week in the current weather pattern, but I do want to get out there as long as my chase partner is still willing to give it a go (definitely no interest in going it alone in such boring setups). Of course, if it looks like nothing but blue sky then I would bag it, and it would be the first time since I started in 1996 that I actually decided not to do a chase vacation, other than the two years that my kids were born because they were born in May and in June.

At this point I’m not torturing myself with the models past next Tuesday. After the ridge moves east, some flow from the next weak trough makes it into the Plains on Sun/Mon but lags behind the moisture, which is slow to return into areas west of I-35 after this week’s frontal passage. I am hopeful that perhaps the moisture return will be better than modeled; for example, CO dew points should be higher today than shown in yesterday’s models. However, it looks like hot surface temps and a strong cap can be added to the list of problems next week on the southern and central Plains.

If I knew chasing were definitely “cancelled” this year (feels like cancelling Christmas BTW) it would be easier for me to deal with that if I could just completely put chasing - and the weather in general - out of my mind, get on with life, and focus on other things to make me forget about the disappointment. But right now I’m still holding onto some hope that I’ll get out there and it will be worthwhile. So I’m kind of in limbo, still spending a lot of time on the models every day, still feeling like I’m “supposed” to be on vacation, and not fully engaged/motivated in my work and other activities.

 

[Brett Nickeson]

Thanks for that Brett. It would be interesting to see a similar comparison just for severe weather reports because I feel like there have at least been more storms this year whereas in 2006 it was just blue sky. Of course, that is just my recollection of the particular time I was on my chase vacation in 2006 so purely anecdotal and subject to my fading memory of that year...

Here is the site to do that on: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html#2018

Using hail reports up through the end of April only (2018 stats only go through May 9), 2006 had 6183 reports compared to 711 reports for 2018. Now, somewhere along the line their criteria for severe hail may have changed because the stats for 2006 are so much higher. But if you look at the monthly totals for recent years - even poor ones - a typical April will have more severe reports than we've had all year so far. It's been horrifically slow any way you look at it.

 

[Dan Robinson]

2006 had the three big east-of-the-Plains outbreaks early in the season (March 12, April 2 and April 7) that probably account for a large number of the reports for that April at least. I wonder what the data would look like if those events were filtered out.

 

[Brett Roberts]

Since 2006 has been brought up a few times as one of the quintessential definitions of an awful chase year, I did a little comparison strictly with tornado numbers and placements. The image on the left below is JUST April and May of 2006. The image on the right is all of 2018 so far (and I think the number of dots will be damn near exactly the same a week from now). It's pretty easy to see that 2018 is far worse than 2006 was. There's always still June to turn this thing around, but purely by tornado numbers in the plains 2006 doesn't hold a candle to 2018's atrociousness.

This year has been worse than 2006 YTD, but so was 2014 and several others. What puts 2006 near the very bottom for me is that the prime season (May-June) was basically worthless. March-April were actually somewhat active, which accounts for why we're running behind its pace right now. But, as is typical of early season events, the vast majority of that activity in 2006 was moisture starved and junky. I think April 6 and April 24 were the only remotely noteworthy Plains tornado chase ops of the entire spring, and they were probably both less memorable than this year's Tescott event.

FWIW, the crude scoring system I came up with ranks 2006 as the worst May-June on record, with 2012 close behind: http://skyinmotion.com/weather/chas...egion=scplains&season=lateseason&display=plot

To be fair, there's no real sign of hope on the model guidance right now, so it's certainly possible that this season ends up worse than 2006 should June unfold similarly to that year. That scenario would likely put 2018 neck and neck with 1988 for worst season ever.

 

[Jesse Risley]

Here is the site to do that on: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html#2018

Using hail reports up through the end of April only (2018 stats only go through May 9), 2006 had 6183 reports compared to 711 reports for 2018. Now, somewhere along the line their criteria for severe hail may have changed because the stats for 2006 are so much higher. But if you look at the monthly totals for recent years - even poor ones - a typical April will have more severe reports than we've had all year so far. It's been horrifically slow any way you look at it.

It did back in January of 2010. They raised the threshold criteria from 0.75" to 1.00" for SVR thunderstorm warnings. It had to do with damage to roofs and other property being more common at 1"+, as well as a plethora of warnings from events that produced nickel sized hail, for example, but for which there was little threat to personal property = public desensitization.

 

[Brett Nickeson]

GFS and Euro are trying to show some signs of life in the neighborhood of late next week to next weekend. Which would make sense since I can't chase next Tuesday through Sunday. While their solutions differ significantly, both bring a shortwave through the central to northern plains with seasonable moisture below it.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

March and April of '06 were actually pretty decent, as has been noted. One event I haven't seen mentioned is a quite photogenic tornado in southeast Nebraska in mid-April that Shane Adams among others was on:

http://www.passiontwist.com/41506chase.htm

It was in May that year that everything shut down. This is by far the deadest severe weather season I've personally observed, with NO legitimate outbreaks anywhere in the central US from March-May and the Culver/Tescott tornado the only redeeming event for those who were able to snag it.

 

[Greg Ansel]

What should also be factored in is the redundant reporting that happens more frequently now when you have several chasers/spotters reporting on the same event. I have mentioned this in the past as I believe (from reading the reports on SPC), that there can be as many as 4 or 5 tornado, wind, or hail reports on the same storm in the same location and time. I think, and someone correct me if I'm wrong, the National Weather Service should filter these reports down to one for each cell, time and location. Then we can have a better discussion of how good or bad the season is based on singular event reports. Also, I've been on storms where they were in unchaseable areas, and thus few to no reports were generated for anything other than visual events (tornado, but no hail size or wind).

 

[chrisbray]

Guys....we have sub-200 hour indicators that upper level flow is returning to the CONUS! Season's not dead yet!

 

[Alex Elmore]

What should also be factored in is the redundant reporting that happens more frequently now when you have several chasers/spotters reporting on the same event. I have mentioned this in the past as I believe (from reading the reports on SPC), that there can be as many as 4 or 5 tornado, wind, or hail reports on the same storm in the same location and time. I think, and someone correct me if I'm wrong, the National Weather Service should filter these reports down to one for each cell, time and location.

They do. That's why Storm Data is published relatively well after the fact, and why the previous year's severe reports aren't made available until usually the following April or May. Looking at SPC's WCM page, it appears 2017 hail and wind reports are in and finalized, but tornado reports are still being worked on.

 

[Greg Ansel]

They do. That's why Storm Data is published relatively well after the fact, and why the previous year's severe reports aren't made available until usually the following April or May. Looking at SPC's WCM page, it appears 2017 hail and wind reports are in and finalized, but tornado reports are still being worked on.

So with that being the case, a true comparison of this season and how many Tors, hail, and wind events actually occurred wouldn't happen until next year when all the data is sorted. It still looks pretty bleak so far. Also wondering if, when the season is bad and less chasers go out, if the storm coverage reporting-wise is reduced and many events go unreported thus compounding the bad season statistics.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Also wondering if, when the season is bad and less chasers go out, if the storm coverage reporting-wise is reduced and many events go unreported thus compounding the bad season statistics.

I don't think that is much of a problem anymore, and likely hasn't in 10 years or more. The chasers don't go away just because the pattern doesn't support tornadoes. Case in point - there is a tiny Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for parts of W K/E CO right now on a day with 25-30 kts at h5, but I still see a few dozen SN dots in W KS right now. And the SN dots are not 100% of the chasers out right now.

The only place where you might get unreported severe anymore is either at high altitude (say CO or NM west of where chasers would normally call off the chase) or in MT/ND because they're just so desolate and some storms may occur 20 miles from a paved road.