2018-05-19 EVENT: KS/NE/IA/MO/OK/TX

[Royce Sheibal]

I was not at all excited about Saturday as the models really were (and still are) a giant mess. Also I'll be on the road in the target area but not able to chase, so that's a bummer. That being said everything changed when the 12Z NAM3km showed up today:

That, ladies and gentlemen, is a LOT of UH, covering a large swath of land with forecast TD's near 70 in the warm sector, and some well backed winds at the surface. Mid level winds are a mess right now in the models due to their having issues with the MCS Saturday morning, and upper level winds are relatively weak and loopy. All of this being said, this is one of the first lows in weeks that will be ejecting at the same time as good moisture return and a significant vort max.

Storm modes will likely be messy, and things may go linear quickly, but there is way more potential here than previous runs have let on. With good 0-3KM SRH present but terrible storm modes and blah shear, a few QLCS tors may be possible in additional to a few messy HP supercells. The EURO, which had been saying Saturday would be active but didn't look like it was resolving well, now gains come credibility from these NAM runs. Northeastern KS / NW MO looks like the best area IMO, but I'll be in SE Nebraska, not chasing (ugh) as usual. I'm not sure what to think of the action in OK/TX, as it wasn't much in previous runs, but suddenly just got a huge boost. Could be an interesting alternate play.

Let's see how the 18Z and 00Z runs go before we get too excited.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

18z data continues the trend of making Saturday appear interesting. Looks like the low will be lifting northeast across Kansas during the day with a warm front, possibly modulated by convective outflows stretching cross the I-70 corridor by mid/late afternoon with 3k plus CAPE nosing up into northeast KS and northwest MO. Storm mode still appears it may be messy, but it does appear there may be some tornado potential ahead of the low on the warm front. I plan on making the drive north from Tulsa. It's May, so I will give it a chase.

 

[Dan Robinson]

What a messy evolution this morning. Chaotic surface chart nothing like what I expected when I went to bed last night. Models struggling with the surface low placement. Crashing cold front threatening NE Kansas target. (strong north winds coming down from NE and not much south of the boundary to counter). OFB/stationary front along KS/OK border is a player but models insist on rapid upscale growth there. Jet max nosing in and diffluence aloft favors northern target, but I fear a storm there will be undercut if the front is pushing too hard.