Jeff House
Supporter
I virtually chased and I'm glad it was virtual. Most likely I would have bailed from my north target south. @Quincy Vagell I almost certainly would have your same story; cannot reply in reports though since I was not there.
So for Bennington 3 my Discord posts started in central Kansas. Then I thought up toward I-70. Finally talked Concordia. That last post was something like moisture/wind best CNK but CAMs still discrete south. Welp. Fundamentals 1 - 0 CAMs. SPC meso-analysis (fundamentals) had best parameters north. Key would have been forecasting (against CAMs) the LLJ would help break up a line. It can and does happen. Not all pearls go solid line. In fact, some lines go pearls.
Thinking over the years, perhaps the odds are better managing slop risk than managing moisture/not backed risk. Now if the DL has moisture and backed winds, it's a go. I am talking about May 1, 2018 type days where the moisture/wind is questionable on the DL. Keep north? At the very least, it's easier to adjust south than to adjust north. Thoughts?
Bennington 2 and 3 both had secondary southern targets. Both days the TP was a little dry, but farther east was plenty moist with backed winds. Both days waiting for TP cells to get into deeper moisture paid off. LLJ played its role too.
Also I remember missing Rolls OK. Mid-levels were a little warm south but northwest OK started as a line/cluster. We bailed south and missed Rolls. We had targeted NW OK and were looking right at the line of storms in person and on radar. Drove away. I know it's unbelievable! At the same time we are human and these things happen.
Chasing is like sports, crushing lows and exhilarating highs. Then you get days where everything works out, forecast, nowcast, decisions, roads, no rain-wrap, even lunch under a shade tree. Those days are why we chase!
So for Bennington 3 my Discord posts started in central Kansas. Then I thought up toward I-70. Finally talked Concordia. That last post was something like moisture/wind best CNK but CAMs still discrete south. Welp. Fundamentals 1 - 0 CAMs. SPC meso-analysis (fundamentals) had best parameters north. Key would have been forecasting (against CAMs) the LLJ would help break up a line. It can and does happen. Not all pearls go solid line. In fact, some lines go pearls.
Thinking over the years, perhaps the odds are better managing slop risk than managing moisture/not backed risk. Now if the DL has moisture and backed winds, it's a go. I am talking about May 1, 2018 type days where the moisture/wind is questionable on the DL. Keep north? At the very least, it's easier to adjust south than to adjust north. Thoughts?
Bennington 2 and 3 both had secondary southern targets. Both days the TP was a little dry, but farther east was plenty moist with backed winds. Both days waiting for TP cells to get into deeper moisture paid off. LLJ played its role too.
Also I remember missing Rolls OK. Mid-levels were a little warm south but northwest OK started as a line/cluster. We bailed south and missed Rolls. We had targeted NW OK and were looking right at the line of storms in person and on radar. Drove away. I know it's unbelievable! At the same time we are human and these things happen.
Chasing is like sports, crushing lows and exhilarating highs. Then you get days where everything works out, forecast, nowcast, decisions, roads, no rain-wrap, even lunch under a shade tree. Those days are why we chase!
