Brandon Centeno
EF1
The first of a pair of very intriguing days is set to occur on Tuesday. Unlike the day before it, Tuesday will have adequate moisture in place for a severe weather event. Slight height rises and implied subsident large-scale vertical motions will likely make this a borderline conditional target, however, with southwesterly flow aloft, smaller-scale perturbations in the mean flow could certainly aid in storm development.
The greatest threat in terms of discrete supercells capable of tornadoes looks to be in NW OK into southern KS, thanks in part to a strong low-level mass response and developing low-level jet in the afternoon/evening hours. Instability in the 2000-3500 MLCAPE range owing to upper 60s dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will be conducive to rapid accelerations for any updraft able to sustain itself. Strong vertical wind shear in the low- and deep-layers will promote supercellular organization, with tornadoes possible. Coverage will remain quite low due to lack of broad large-scale ascent. So while a cap bust certainly is possible, I find it hard to believe we will not see at least isolated supercell development along the dry line in Kansas or Oklahoma.
Elsewhere, stronger/linear forcing will likely yield scattered supercells before upscale growth occurs. A tornado or two probably can't be ruled out farther north/east along the front.
Looking forward to a solid chase in great terrain. My entire week is clear after 715 am Tuesday, so I'm really looking forward to getting back out there. Currently, thinking I'll pass my fitness test at 615-715, get some breakfast, link up with another ST'er and head for the Woodward area or a little farther north.
The greatest threat in terms of discrete supercells capable of tornadoes looks to be in NW OK into southern KS, thanks in part to a strong low-level mass response and developing low-level jet in the afternoon/evening hours. Instability in the 2000-3500 MLCAPE range owing to upper 60s dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will be conducive to rapid accelerations for any updraft able to sustain itself. Strong vertical wind shear in the low- and deep-layers will promote supercellular organization, with tornadoes possible. Coverage will remain quite low due to lack of broad large-scale ascent. So while a cap bust certainly is possible, I find it hard to believe we will not see at least isolated supercell development along the dry line in Kansas or Oklahoma.
Elsewhere, stronger/linear forcing will likely yield scattered supercells before upscale growth occurs. A tornado or two probably can't be ruled out farther north/east along the front.
Looking forward to a solid chase in great terrain. My entire week is clear after 715 am Tuesday, so I'm really looking forward to getting back out there. Currently, thinking I'll pass my fitness test at 615-715, get some breakfast, link up with another ST'er and head for the Woodward area or a little farther north.