2017-04-15 EVENT: TX/OK/KS

[Ben Holcomb]

This is still a few days out and there are some big model discrepancies, but it seems plausible that with just enough shear along the dryline for supercells that we could have a decent chase day. Tornadic potential seems to be not so high, but the GFS especially hints at very nice curved hodographs.

I'll keep details minimal at this point, but a day to keep a watch on.

 

[Ethan Schisler]

I'm watching this day as well. Mid level flow is my main concern right now as it looks on the lower end of what you would expect for a mid-april setup. Nonetheless, thermodynamics appear to be there along with moisture and backing winds along a dry line toward 00z. So I'm not ruling out a trip to the Texas Panhandle on Saturday at all. I'd even be watching areas further north toward the OK panhandle and maybe into SW Kansas where there is better mid and upper level support. That is about all I can add right now, but I definitely agree with OP....its a day well worth watching.

 

[Matt Hunt]

I'm looking at two potential targets for today: Childress, TX and Woodward, OK. I like the winds better up near Woodward, both at the surface and at 500mb, just a bit stronger. HRRR & NAM are pretty consistent with convection in this area, while leaving the Childress area dry. However, there is better CAPE in and north/NW of Childress, and a dryline bulge. I would expect something to fire here as well. Childress would be a shorter drive for me, which sometimes influences my decision making. Still have some time to decide, but right now torn between those two areas.

 

[T Farncombe]

I’m on board with Matt’s analysis. I’m not down there so am armchair chasing here, but I would head toward Shamrock as an initial staging (hurry-up and wait) target. The consistency of a convective signal up between Woodward and Coldwater would be nudging (scaring) me to favor the northern target… However I like the southern target better. Moisture pooling, backing winds, bigger CAPE and a little Panhandle magic on a dryline bulge are a nice batch of ingredients. I would play the waiting game for as long as I could - keeping an eye on sat and surface obs - before deciding whether to head northeast toward Woodward or roll the dice on the southeast Panhandle.