2013-07-09 FCST: IA, IL, WI, MO, KS

[Connor King]

Interested in tomorrow's setup especially since I have the day off of work. With any leftover OFB from the night before we could be dealing with a sneaky little event baring any major changes. It is July though, and these kind of events are impossible to forecast so we'll have to monitor trends over the next 18 hours or so. As long as overnight convection moves out quickly (big if) and convective temperatures are realized by 21-00z to break the capping inversion, explosive super development should be fairly likely in a corridor from Cedar Rapids to the Quad Cities during this time period. A strong tornado can not be ruled out due to extreme cape a a good amount of 0-1 km shear, especially if there is an OFB laying across the area where surface winds can locally back. Expect then any convection that does fire to consolidate into some kind of bowing mcs that will slide southeast through North Central Illinois. My two cents.

 

[James Gustina]

This might need to be changed to a Forecast thread. I think its also interesting to note the MCV already making it's way across the Missouri River into Iowa. If no other boundaries set up in the Iowa area that could be the catalyst for development. The last few runs of the NAM have shown significant cooling at the 700 mb over the course of the day so capping is low down the list of problems in my mind but I'm still concerned with the low level wind fields and some veering at 650-700 mb. If a good boundary does set up though, tomorrow could be a supercell or two on the nose of the jet.