2012-05-26 FCST: NM, TX

[David Wolfson]

Models seem to be settling on a vigorous short-wave dropping into the southwest before succumbing to long-wave ridging in the central US, a problem for several weeks. It seems to be consistent for several day's runs that a window for rotating storms may open up in east NM and the west TX Panhandle as the energy crosses the mountains and interacts with low level flow finally making it off the GoM. No armageddon set-up but some potential for an upside surprise IMO.

 

[Michael Snyder]

Models seem to be settling on a vigorous short-wave dropping into the southwest before succumbing to long-wave ridging in the central US, a problem for several weeks. It seems to be consistent for several day's runs that a window for rotating storms may open up in east NM and the west TX Panhandle as the energy crosses the mountains and interacts with low level flow finally making it off the GoM. No armageddon set-up but some potential for an upside surprise IMO.

Im thinking about chasing the first wave that reaches out into nebraska on the latest GFS, but then the Low ejecting to the NE thru the Rockies as you mention has me really intrigued due to the moisture returning to the plains. No doubt there is going to activity somewhere along the western plains, but how much, when, and will it be worth chasing?

It doesnt help that the Euro and the GFS are at opposites with the low ejecting NE.

I agree with you that there will probably be a nice surprise with this system.