2012-03-28 FCST: KS/OK

[Marcus Diaz]

Been watching this day develop over the NAM, and I'm becoming a little more confident on biting on it. Looks like a small impulse is expected to arrive tomorrow evening in southern KS, bringing some 20-30kt mid-level winds from the WNW. Moisture will not be an issue as mid 60 dews are progged for the area. Surface temps will likely be in the low 80s in this area, which will help create 2500-3000 MLCAPE. The CINH seems to be non-existent. A weak warm front looks to be in place right on the KS/OK border, before it makes a SW track the further west you go. Low level jet seems to be do-able, with backed winds 10-20 kts. Overall this looks to be a classic high cape/low shear type day. As long as we have enough shear to keep the updrafts and downdrafts seperate, we might get a nice little isolated cell or 2 that can maybe drop a brief tornado or 2 before dark. Hail Any other thoughts?

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Giving strong consideration to playing this as of right now. 18z NAM showing 0-3 km EHI values over 6.00 in an area in SC KS at 21z tomorrow. Not really sold on any tornado potential due the rather anemic upper level winds, but storm motions should be exceptionally manageable for this early in the season, so if storms can go there may well be good photography opportunities, at the very least.

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

This is a roll of the dice chase today as I'll be heading out with Charles Edwards and initially targeting the SLN area by 21Z. a minor perturbation in the 500mb. flow should interact with some decent surface cape to 3K j/kg and marginally sufficient helicity values to about 250 m/s across the I-70 corridor by mid afternoon should start setting off CI. by said time. A good plus today are the slow storm motions, probably less than 20 knots, a novelty for this time of year, but then again, little as been typical with this month meteorologically speaking. Being the shortwave is a weak one, rising motions will be modest at best. Good storm structure, lightning and some hail up to 2" diameter will be the chief reports for today, I reckon a couple of radar indicated TOR's won't be out of the question but not expecting it. It will be good hanging out with Charles today and to make up for the general lack of chasing the last couple of years for me. Besides, it was 5 years ago today I had my best chase ever with him, Matt Starkey and Mark McGowen in the TX P.H, I'm sure you remember that day. Maybe a blessing will be in our favour.

 

[ChristianTerry]

Checking out the RUC at 5 PM shows a nice batch of around 450 of upper level helical shear (0-3Km) just north of Wichita, Kansas. Low level shear is much lower in the area. Helical(0-1KM) is just around 100 in that area. For tornado potential, Im skeptical about the probabilities. SPC has a 5% risk for tornadoes shaded in that area. Im not gonna rule out a brief tornado, but this does look like a good hail threat. If anyone is there and can critique my views since as I have said before...just trying to interpret the models correctly, that would be awesome.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

I'm also skeptical about the tornado probablilities with almost non existant low level shear, but modest upper level shear increasing as the day goes on would give hope for a small chance of tornadoes. Cape is more than enough and LI is at -8. RUC is showing a break in the cap around 20z from Salina to Wichita, so I'd probably initially target McPherson, Ks (or just east) to be able to make a north or south play if I were going out today, but due to work responsibilites will be watching from afar. Good luck to those out chasing today!

 

[Andrew Burnett]

RUC seems to be showing decent sfc-500mb sheer most of the afternoon. From Wichita to the Mo border. it does fade in the evening however.