2011-05-11 FCST: KS/OK/TX

[Royce Sheibal]

We'll its morning and I'm still confused as to how this will play out. Gonna ride the warm front today and hopefully get some clearing behind the current storms.
http://68.226.77.253/skewts/RUC-test/012/SKT_RUC__KHSI.png
Here's RUC's output for Hastings, NE at 21Z. EHI and BRN are both acceptable, Great instability and no cap. SRH is terrible but any storms along the front will be boosted significantly. Storm motions are nice and easy and slow. The models are also putting out storms further east near Beatrice, NE where there should be better heating. My best pick for the day is still just west of Wichita, KS. Cape may be low but the dynamics are just TOO GOOD, and leftover boundaries from this morning can't hurt.

 

[Ryan Pfannkuch]

Preliminary 4-county target area in northwest KS: Graham, Rooks, Trego, Ellis (including Hill City, Plainville, WaKeeney, Hays)

Overall, not much change in what I was thinking from 24 hours ago. As always the case, not sure what kind of effect widespread morning clouds and ongoing convection streaming north across western KS will have, but assuming that sufficient destabilization can materialize then I like this area along the axis of the mid level jet, and in an area of backed low level flow on/near the surface warm front. Not overly thrilled that the 12z RUC is hanging the sfc low way back in southeast CO as of 21z, but as if often the case the closed H5 low is in no hurry to kick out onto the Plains. Kind of wondering if the instability is overdone, but the RUC sounding for Hill City valid at 00z is depicting around 150 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH and 19kt 0-1km bulk shear. The hodograph is quite unidirectional from the south above 700mb, as would be expected with respect to the position of the negatively tilted trough. Don't have a good feel for how "messy" the convective mode/coverage will be, but the latest HRRR depicts a hint of at least semi-discrete convection developing in west central KS, with support from the 00z WRF-NMM. I wouldn't be surprised to see some interesting things happen farther west near the CO/KS border area near the sfc low, or farther east near the front across northern KS/far southern NE, but at least for now will stick with a target at least a few counties northeast of the general consensus of the triple point.

 

[Kelly Sugden]

Trego county looks like a good place to start today. May another 4/10/2005 event.

 

[Chad Ringley]

A comment from the sidelines...today reminds me of 9 October 2001. Early morning convection persisted into the afternoon hours. It was POURING in Norman at 3pm. Just enough clearing occurred in W OK, and the atmosphere destabilized very quick. Couple of tornadic supercells along the dryline, and while I was late to the party, saw a tornado near Foss Lake. Could see a scenario like this play out today.

 

[Doug Drace]

Definately agree with above posts, really wondering how quick this massive amount of morning junkvection will either dissipate or move far enough east to get some good destabilization along the DL. Certainly not giving up on it! There could be a positive out of this, potential Outflow Boundries later today from this mess, if things go the way of the chase community. Just gonna have to wait and see, but im pretty confident with the dynamics of this neg tilt trough/sharpening DL, at least a narrow cooridor of clearing will take place by later this afternoon. Wouldnt be suprised at the end of the day to see a pretty decent tornado count in KS, and a more isolated, yet still decent count in OK when its all said and done...just cant invision a complete bust out of this one.

EDIT: Looking at the latest Vis Loop, it looks like this junkvection/associated cloud cover is pivoting to the ENE relatively quick...so im liking the prospects of getting at least that narrow cooridor of clearing ahead of the DL to take place by no later than early afternoon IMO...

 

[Mikey Gribble]

Yeah I'm surprised more people haven't mentioned the morning convection coming into the target area. As soon as I saw that this morning all I could think is, eh, that's not supposed to be there. Nice job by the models completely whiffing on that one. It's always encouraging when the models miss an MSC the size of Maryland.
How much clearing we get in the wake of morning precip is tricky. I tried extrapolating the current movement of the back edge of cloud cover, but I don't think that method is very accurate. According to my rough guesstimate extrapolating current movement (which is skewed) and going off more recent runs of the HRRR, I think we should start getting decent insolation ahead of central portions of the dryline by early afternoon. So this precip throws a real kink in things, but a few hours of insolation is enough time to get decent instability. I'm planning on heading west towards Greensburg and figuring out the forecast there then moving north or south along the dryline to wherever I need to.

 

[Kelly Sugden]

I think the morning convection complicates the mesoscale picture but the game is far from over.

 

[Michael Riedl]

The MCS should start to break apart here soon, so I think that will give us plenty of time Right on the dryline to clear out and get Instability, liking a current target of Pratt Right now.

 

[jeremy wilson]

Yeah I'm surprised more people haven't mentioned the morning convection coming into the target area. As soon as I saw that this morning all I could think is, eh, that's not supposed to be there. Nice job by the models completely whiffing on that one. It's always encouraging when the models miss an MSC the size of Maryland.
How much clearing we get in the wake of morning precip is tricky. I tried extrapolating the current movement of the back edge of cloud cover, but I don't think that method is very accurate. According to my rough guesstimate extrapolating current movement (which is skewed) and going off more recent runs of the HRRR, I think we should start getting decent insolation ahead of central portions of the dryline by early afternoon. So this precip throws a real kink in things, but a few hours of insolation is enough time to get decent instability. I'm planning on heading west towards Greensburg and figuring out the forecast there then moving north or south along the dryline to wherever I need to.

Thinking the exact same thing Mikey. Today is all about the Sun.

Currently sitting in McPherson after a two day South Dakota bummer chase. Was hoping my old stomping grounds wouldn't let me down and they may not still. Was thinking the Greensburg area myself at first and then chase the sunshine. Like Mikey said, all it takes is a few hours of sun and game on. I've seen it happen many times. The MCS seems to be pushing through rather quickly and I have pretty small doubt that insolation will take place over a large section of the warm sector.

P.S. I know this isn't the same setup by any means, but I seem to remember a recent outbreak (4/27) where a pretty vicious squall line moved through early on and didn't seem to hamper that setup.

 

[Brian Mette]

I'm actually liking western to central Oklahoma a lot. It may not have the greatest wind shear ever, but it looks like there'll be some pretty decent CAPE. Once this morning convection moves off, I think there will be a pretty decent chance for some tornadoes.

Also, I have a calculus final tomorrow morning, so I can't afford to drive all the way to Kansas.

I haven't made up my mind yet as far as my initial target, but I'm leaning towards El Reno.

 

[Eddie Natenberg]

I'm actually pretty impressed that the NAM has been picking up on the cloudcover/morning convection and the 1500-2500 j/kg of cape as well as the S shaped hodographs, which will probably effect storm mode. I still think there will be tornadoes today but even with some good diabatic heating along the dryline it look like this mornings convection and cloud cover may keep inflow parcels stable. I'm just trying to think about if sfc parcels would be coming from a area where precip and cloud cover has effected the BL stability. This might impact how storms ramp up as the LLJ intensifies tonight. Either way I will save my chase days for later this year. Good luck to everyone that goes out.

 

[Michael Riedl]

The HRRR looks rather interesting for the ICT-Anthony Corridor today, got decent Helicity and High Cape. Not sure what to think about it right now but it could be a play I will obviously take into play when I get out of class.

I do think the Dryline will be a tad further east than what might have been expected.

 

[weskranz]

Heading through Ardmore now in route to OKC area and will determine target from there. KS/OK border is my initial hunch, but if W central/SW OK clear early it could be in play as well. Shear may be better overall further north. Stay safe.

 

[Jason Haller]

First chase of the year for me. Have to get a late start but targeting the Salina, KS area. The HRRR seems to want to fire convection between Salina and Wichita around 20 utc and with little in the way of cloud cover I feel this is were the strongest convection will fire in my area. Hope to follow the storms all the way home.

 

[James Siler]

Just looked at satellite imagery, and it appears that western and south western Oklahoma is already clearing out. And also looking at the Oklahoma mesonet, it looks like the dewpoints are trying to recover in extreme SW Oklahoma. Think I am gonna head out toward Elk City area here in about an hour and make a choice from there.