2004-09-03 FCST: Ivan (Atlantic)

[David Wolfson]

One of the on-air mets on TWC a few hours ago made a passing reference to the Jamaican meteorologists currently being on strike for higher pay. Good day to call in sick, I should say....

 

[Steven Williams]

Looks like the metars have stopped. Just when the weather was going to get interesting. Last one was at 2100UTC.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html

 

[David Wolfson]

2222Z vortex report: 927Mb, 10C eye temp elevation, 12 mile wide closed eye

Winding up big time.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Looking at the IR loop, Ivan looks like it's becoming better organized. Jamaica looks to be in the direct path of this hurricane... Not sure how one would take cover on an island of that size with the hurricane being much larger than the island - Seems like it would be hard to escape the destruction. Also, the Jamaican METAR data (two sites) have been out for over 2 hours as of 7:30PM ET - http://www.allmetsat.com/en/C307.php?icao=MKJP

Robert

 

[Blake Allen]

While this thing is deepening, the radio station that was posted earlier has coverage of the opposition party leader criticizing the Jamaican Prime Minister's decision to declare a state of emergency. He's even claiming that it looks like the storm is weakening and not going to be a direct strike. Seems like a foolish thing to say right now -- maybe they should wait a day or two before they start into the politics...

Blake Allen

 

[Morgan Palmer]

CDERA, the emergency response group for the Caribbean claims there will be near-real-time updates on the following web page.
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2004/jamaica.shtml

 

[Carrie Halliday]

I'm feeling for the Jamaicans, sure hope they are ready......150mph at this time and less than 50mi to landfall.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Originally posted by Morgan Palmer
CDERA, the emergency response group for the Caribbean claims there will be near-real-time updates

The reports on there of large numbers of Jamaicans refusing to evacuate is very disturbing.

[edit] On the 0045z enhanced IR, Ivan looks like cat5 again, just as eye approaches Jamaica.

 

[B Ozanne]

My guess is that Ivan is a CAT 5 again.

Has anybody been able to get any streaming radio out of Jamaica in the past hour? I haven't been able to get anything for awhile now.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

I’m still picking up Power 106 FM. The server if full, but if you keep trying you’ll get in. Their taking storm reports from all over the island. Many reports of roofs blown off, flooding, and looting. I believe the major brunt of Ivan is still over an hour away.
Already reports of food and water shortages. The residents sound very tense and frightened.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Power 106 FM just reported local average wind speed of ~ 60 – 70 mph. A local met said Ivan was slowing and now moving ~ 12 mph. They are expecting sever weather conditions to last well into tomorrow night.

 

[Dan Robinson]

For a chaser, forecasting and going after Ivan is going to be a nightmare. I'm considering a chase, *if* landfall is in the panhandle. The big problem with targeting a hurricane coming in at this angle is the great distance that a chaser has to reposition if the hurricane makes a slight deviation from its projected path. For instance, the 5pm advisory has landfall near Tallahassee. We all know that will change with each advisory. If you target Tallahassee and the storm makes a slight right turn, your target could be as far south as Naples! That's a 472 mile, 7.5-hour drive to reposition - and 1.5 tanks of gas (for a vehicle that gets about 20-25 mpg). If you target Tampa and reposition to Tallahassee - 296 miles, 4.5 hour drive, 1 tank of gas. Start at Tampa and adjust to Naples, 151 miles, 2.5 hours, or about 2/3 tank. Or, what about the possibility of a left turn, with landfall in Biloxi: From Tampa, that's 600 miles, a 10 hour drive, over 2 tanks of gas!

That's a lot of ground to cover with severe fuel shortages and a fast-moving hurricane. Getting this one right will be a little tougher than the last ones. I have the convenience of starting from Raleigh, NC this time (visiting family), a few hours south of my normal base. As a chaser, for me it's going to be a last minute decision to go - IF landfall looks to be in the panhandle. A landfall in the FL panhandle, perpendicular to shore, will allow greater flexibility for a chaser to reposition in time without burning precious fuel. A landfall on the FL west coast will be nearly impossible to target barring a very precise forecast this time, very little room for a chaser to error.

 

[David Schuttler]

To me it looks like more of a L. turn happening and not moving closer jamaica... Am I seeing things?

 

[Morgan Palmer]

Yes, I see that too. It could be a wobble, but no matter of the exact track, the southern coast will get the full brunt of the eyewall.

 

[Carrie Halliday]

Just read the update. Ivan is at 155mph with pressure of 920mb. They say it is still Cat 4, thought at 155 that was the threshold for Cat 5. ??