2004-09-03 FCST: Ivan (Atlantic)

[B Ozanne]

That radar site is great. Does anybody know what that island to the south of Jamaica is? It shows up on the radar map. I had no idea there was an island down there.

Edit: I figured it out. The island is very small, I don't know why it looks like that on the radar.

 

[B Ozanne]

Ivan is really pulling itself back together. That could be very bad luck for Jamaica. The current track is not good either. The eye looks like it will pass south of Kingston, leaving the capital in the most dangerous part of the storm.

Edit: Jamaica has 7,000 foot mountains, in case anybody was wondering.

 

[David Wolfson]

Yeah, that 30C water is getting to work. The south coast is fixing to get really ripped.

 

[Bridget Beddow]

B Ozanne wrote:

Edit: Jamaica has 7,000 foot mountains, in case anybody was wondering.

Could that possibly put a nice wobble into Ivan considering the cooler air at those peaks?

 

[B Ozanne]

Could that possibly put a nice wobble into Ivan considering the cooler air at those peaks?

You'd think so, but in the past Jamaica's topography has had little effect on hurricanes.

 

[Chris Sokol]

Live radio in Jamaica:

http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/index.html

 

[David Wolfson]

Jamaica's higher mountains are all on the north side, especially north of Kingston on the southeast jutting peninsula.
http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/jm/jmmap.shtml

A 'caine that rakes the south coast looks especially nasty for flooding.

 

[Bridget Beddow]

http://www.silver-sands.com/jamaica_2.html

July Average Low at 75.1 degrees F, Average High at 90.7 degrees F
Temperatures are 10 to 20 degrees F cooler in the highlands

Higher than average rainfall occurs during September to October, followed by May to June. The average annual rainfall of 77.1 inches is strongly influenced by the terrain. The northeast of the island receives the most rain. Areas of the Western end also receive high rainfall.

Sounds along the lines of rainforest terrain, which is probably going to feed alot of moisture into the atmosphere if I'm reading that correctly???

 

[David Wolfson]

I don't think that's how it works, Bridget. A hurricane's energy comes almost completely from latent heat sucked off the ocean. Except perhaps for flat watery areas like the Everglades, the amount of energy available off land areas is small by comparison. Land friction also becomes a limiting factor if the land is hilly or worse.

With respect to the forecast for Ivan, most of the circulation should remain over warm water, so the intensity shouldn't suffer much.

 

[Bridget Beddow]

Aaahh - Thank you!

 

[Marc Grant]

It's looking to me like the eye will pass south of Jamaica, being on a more westward course right now.

 

[Blake Allen]

Thanks for the link to the Jamaican radar...

From what I've read, it sounds like Gilbert actually strengthened as its eye was crossing Jamaica, so I have to wonder how much of an effect the island's terrain will have Ivan. Then again, Gilbert was already busy intensifying when got to Jamaica, while Ivan appears as though it peaked yesterday.

Does anyone know of any place to get surface obs (especially wind speed) from Jamaica?

Blake Allen

EDIT: I'm not completely sure if I am interpreting the radar correctly, but it looks like Ivan may have developed a concentric eye.

 

[Mike Johnson]

On the latest (04:20:15 UTC - Sept. 10) IR loop, Ivan looks to be better
organized, but on the last frame, the hurricane seems to be
more elongated in a NE to SW configuration. This is similar to the IR frames right before Frances weakened as it bumped into
the high.

Anyone else notice this?

Mike

 

[Tim Vasquez]

That Jamaican radar site looks like it hasn't been updated in awhile (whether it's EDT or UTC I can't tell). Even scarier I think they're updating it by hand, since the naming format seems to differ slightly from image to image. If anyone notices an update after "15:50" please alert us here.

Tim

 

[Bob Schafer]

Originally posted by Tim Vasquez
If anyone notices an update

Ya know, they may have already lost power.

Or, maybe the radar operators have simply evac'ed. I wouldn't blame them, attm.